It is unclear if LNG imports can guarantee Southeast Asia’s energy security

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines whether increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports can guarantee energy security for Southeast Asian nations. While ASEAN members are investing USD 20.4 billion in LNG infrastructure to meet rising demand and declining domestic supplies, the document argues that this dependence exposes the region to geopolitical supply shocks, price volatility, and competition with Europe. It suggests that investing in domestic renewable energy, upgrading grids, and accelerating the ASEAN Power Grid would provide a more resilient and secure energy future.

• ASEAN countries are significantly increasing their commitment to LNG, with planned infrastructure investments totaling USD 20.4 billion to expand import capacity. This trend is driven by rising electricity demand and falling domestic gas reserves, with some nations using LNG imports as a strategic signal to the US to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
• Specific national strategies show a shift toward LNG: Thailand aims to increase LNG's share of its gas needs from 31% in 2024 to approximately 40% by 2030. Vietnam plans to generate 22,524 MW of electricity from LNG by 2030, while the Philippines forecasts a 508% increase in LNG imports between 2025 and 2029.
• Dependence on LNG imports exposes Southeast Asia to severe price volatility and supply insecurity. The 2022 energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to historic price spikes and the diversion of cargoes to Europe, where traders sought higher profits, leaving some Asian nations unable to access or afford fuel.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran in early 2026, pose a significant risk to energy security. Because Iran is a major global gas and oil producer, military intervention or infrastructure disruption could trigger price shocks similar to the 2022 crisis, impacting electricity prices in countries like Singapore and Thailand.
• Logistical disruptions on key shipping routes increase the cost and time of LNG deliveries from the US to Asia. Droughts in the Panama Canal and security risks in the Red Sea (Suez Canal) have forced tankers to use the Cape of Good Hope, which increases round-trip time and fuel costs.
• The region possesses vast untapped renewable energy potential; in 2022, ASEAN used only 1% of its solar and wind potential. The document suggests that instead of LNG, countries could leverage their own clean energy manufacturing base—which accounts for over 40% of global solar module capacity outside China—to increase domestic installations.
• The ASEAN Power Grid (APG) is presented as a critical alternative for enhancing collective resilience by allowing the transmission of electricity across the region by 2045. By early 2026, eight of 18 key interconnection projects were completed, facilitating 2.8 GW of electricity flow.

APA

Team, Z. (2026). It is unclear if LNG imports can guarantee Southeast Asia’s energy security. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/it-is-unclear-if-lng-imports-can-guarantee-southeast-asias-energy-security/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. It is unclear if LNG imports can guarantee Southeast Asia’s energy security. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/it-is-unclear-if-lng-imports-can-guarantee-southeast-asias-energy-security/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=It is unclear if LNG imports can guarantee Southeast Asia’s energy security |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=20 February 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/it-is-unclear-if-lng-imports-can-guarantee-southeast-asias-energy-security/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2026unclear, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{It is unclear if LNG imports can guarantee Southeast Asia’s energy security}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/it-is-unclear-if-lng-imports-can-guarantee-southeast-asias-energy-security/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }