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The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The briefing contends that the distinction between adaptation and development projects is counter-productive and that adaptation should be viewed as 'doing development differently in response to climate change.' It proposes a framework for maximizing the impact of scarce adaptation finance by establishing strong climate rationales, building national adaptive capacity across four key areas, and shifting toward devolved decision-making to empower local communities.

The document argues that South Africa's informal economy, which employs 4.5 million people, is characterized by low incomes and poor security. It criticizes state-led repression and the narrow focus of micro-enterprise support, proposing instead a transition toward formalization through the implementation of ILO Recommendation 204. Key recommendations include amending the Labour Relations Act and Basic Conditions of Employment Act to recognize own-account workers as workers, enhancing labour inspectorate capacity, and providing basic infrastructure for those working in public spaces. The brief specifically highlights the need for inclusive policies in informal retail and waste recycling, suggesting that corporate responsibility and innovative financing, such as Extended Producer Responsibility levies, be leveraged to support these sectors.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document analyzes the ineffective responses to Burundi's political crisis, highlighting the lack of coordination between the UN, AU, and EAC. It identifies the Burundian government's intransigence and the institutional inexperience of regional bodies as primary obstacles. The author recommends a strategic overhaul that leverages comparative institutional strengths, improves evidence-based research, and ensures international access to the country to prevent mass atrocities.

The document examines how digitalization is restructuring global value chains and the risks it poses to developing nations, such as increased technological divides and value capture by advanced economies. It contrasts the digital industrial policies of the EU (market-friendly) and China (interventionist) to propose a dual-track policy framework for developing countries: 'enabling markets' (focusing on infrastructure, ecosystems, and mitigating disbenefits) and 'digital catch-up' (focusing on technology linkage, learning, and economic leverage). The authors highlight specific instruments like payment interoperability, data localization, and fiscal incentives, while warning of implementation hurdles such as ministerial silos and international trade agreement constraints.

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

The report argues that global fossil fuel subsidies, estimated at USD 425 billion in 2015, represent a massive untapped financial resource that could fund universal energy access multiple times over. It contends that untargeted consumption subsidies are often regressive, benefiting wealthier households and potentially hindering energy access by straining utility budgets and encouraging fuel smuggling. The authors propose a 'Remove, Target, and Swap' framework: removing subsidies with no energy access benefit, targeting necessary subsidies toward the poor (e.g., through connection subsidies), and swapping fossil fuel support for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

Since 2016, Israel has pursued a vigorous African engagement strategy to secure diplomatic support in international forums and expand markets for its technology and security expertise. While relations are deepening with East African nations like Ethiopia and Kenya due to shared security concerns and commercial opportunities, ties with regional powerhouses Nigeria and South Africa remain complex and often strained by solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, including Prime Minister Netanyahu's visits and the proposed Africa-Israel Summit, the document finds that trade between Israel and Africa remains minimal and that winning consistent loyalty in the UN General Assembly remains elusive.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

As of 30 April 2018, the GCF pipeline consists of 65 funding proposals requesting USD 3.9 billion and 183 concept notes requesting USD 10.9 billion. The report details the sectoral, regional, and thematic distribution of these requests, noting a strong presence of cross-cutting projects. It also assesses the status of the Project Preparation Facility, the Simplified Approval Process (SAP) pilot, and specific requests for proposals including Enhanced Direct Access (EDA), MSME support, and REDD-plus. The GCF is implementing knowledge management improvements, such as NDA/AE portals, to increase transparency and processing speed.

The M-Akiba bond, designed to broaden the investor base in Kenya via mobile money, saw high registration (303,534 people) but low conversion, raising only KSh 247 million against a KSh 1 billion target. While the product was well-received and reached new investors, uptake was hindered by poor timing coinciding with national elections, a confusing two-step purchase process, lack of follow-up reminders, and inadequate customer support. Most investors were formally employed, university-educated, and urban-based, primarily from Nairobi.

The document examines the AfCFTA, an agreement aiming to create a single market for goods, services, and investment across 55 African countries. It highlights potential gains such as a 52% increase in intra-African trade and a 4% rise in total exports, while identifying significant hurdles including poor infrastructure, non-tariff barriers, and varying levels of political commitment. The paper specifically discusses the tensions between larger economies and less-developed countries (LDCs) regarding tariff liberalisation and special and differential treatment, as well as the complexities of overlapping memberships in Regional Economic Communities (RECs). It concludes that the success of the AfCFTA depends on domestic implementation and the ability of AU members to align national interests with continental goals.

The document reviews the African Union's (AU) 2017 Year of Youth, highlighting the gap between the adoption of high-level frameworks like the African Youth Charter and their actual domestication by member states. While it identifies successes in youth-led political activism in Nigeria, The Gambia, and South Africa, and praises Rwanda's technology-driven youth employment models, it criticizes the AU's lack of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and the tokenistic nature of some youth participation. The authors advocate for using existing tools like the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to track progress and prioritize education, employment, and political inclusion to realize the goals of Agenda 2063.

The document examines the crisis of marine plastic pollution, noting that while Asia is currently the most polluted continent, Africa is on track to take this title due to rapid population growth, industrialisation, and a lack of waste management capacity. It details the environmental impacts of plastic, including entanglement and ingestion by 344 and 331 marine species respectively, and the economic losses associated with tourism and material waste. The brief surveys a wide array of international treaties—such as UNCLOS, MARPOL, and the Basel Convention—and regional frameworks like the RSCAPs, arguing that policies must shift from focusing on ocean-based waste to targeting land-based sources. It highlights South Africa's legislative framework as an example of established policy that still lacks ground-level implementation, and promotes the African Marine Waste Network (AMWN) as a holistic model for research, economic incentives, and capacity building.

The document examines sanitation governance in Rwanda and Uganda, arguing that top-down policies often fail because they ignore the socio-cultural drivers of household behaviour and lack adequate national funding. It highlights a significant 'implementation gap' where international targets drive policy, but households—who provide approximately 60% of sector investment—face cultural and emotional barriers to adoption. The brief advocates for 'backward mapping' to include ground-level stakeholders in design and a deeper understanding of behavioural drivers to ensure sustainability.

The document outlines three development pathways for Rwanda—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition. It provides the specific quantitative inputs and qualitative assumptions used in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models, including GDP growth, population trends, land-use changes, and cookstove penetration rates.

The document examines the tension between the high E&S safeguard standards of MDBs and the capacity or sovereignty of borrowing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It specifically analyzes the World Bank's 2016 Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), which allows for greater use of domestic safeguard frameworks. The author argues that to avoid the dilution of standards, MDBs and governments must move toward partnerships based on country-specific 'E&S safeguard plans' and enhanced capacity building, while ensuring civil society remains an active agent of accountability.