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The report analyzes Brazil's agricultural risk management landscape, highlighting a significant gap in insurance coverage compared to global peers like the US and China. It examines key programs such as the PSR, Proagro, Garantia-Safra, and PGPM, noting high market concentration and a heavy reliance on credit over insurance. The authors argue that inadequate risk management leads to underinvestment and inefficient land use, recommending a shift in public funding from rural credit to insurance subsidies and the expansion of the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (ZARC) system.

The report examines Brazil's agricultural risk management landscape, focusing on public policies like PSR, PROAGRO, Garantia-Safra, and PGPM. It highlights a market characterized by high concentration, limited geographic reach, and a heavy reliance on soy insurance. The authors argue that inadequate risk management leads to underinvestment and inefficient land use, suggesting a shift in public funding from rural credit toward insurance and the expansion of market-based price risk instruments.

The monograph evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' (STGIA2020) initiative, concluding that the continent is far from achieving a conflict-free state. While the AU established coordinating structures and the 2016 Lusaka Master Roadmap, progress is hampered by conceptual confusion, institutional weaknesses, and a lack of political will among member states. The report highlights the critical role of small arms and light weapons (SALWs) proliferation, driven by foreign imports—particularly from Russia—and local craft production. It identifies governance deficits, youth unemployment, and foreign military presence as key drivers of instability. The authors recommend redefining the initiative as a multi-year programme focused on arms control and strengthening monitoring and evaluation frameworks.

The report examines the socioeconomic impacts of industrial decline and evaluates the effectiveness of various transition responses. It argues that successful 'just' transitions require early strategic planning, multi-stakeholder governance, and a holistic approach to regional economic development that builds on existing local capabilities rather than seeking a single industrial replacement. Through case studies in the US, UK, Australia, and South Africa, the document highlights the risks of uneven benefit distribution, the importance of reskilling over simple monetary compensation, and the necessity of addressing environmental legacies to enable land reuse.

Global methane emissions have risen by 50 million metric tons since 2000, with fossil fuel production contributing over 30 percent of this increase. The document asserts that reducing these emissions is feasible and cost-effective, noting that the International Energy Agency estimates half of current emissions can be cut at no net cost. It highlights regulatory efforts in the US, Canada, and Mexico, and suggests that the European Union could significantly reduce its methane footprint and pressure suppliers like Russia and Qatar by enacting robust standards on imported gas.

The document argues that the post-WWII multilateral order is fragmenting, leaving Europe vulnerable to the influence of China and Russia and the unpredictability of US policy. The author proposes a 'networked foreign policy' and 'European strategic sovereignty' to reduce dependencies and preserve EU values. This approach emphasizes the need for Europe to act as a unified geopolitical player, investing in its own technological capabilities (such as 5G and semiconductors) and safeguarding public goods like health and climate protection. The author specifically calls for the EU to reduce reliance on foreign medical supplies and to resist the dominance of US and Chinese tech giants through stronger regulation and a pro-European anti-trust policy.

The report concludes that the prolonged regional heat in Siberia from January to June 2020 was effectively impossible without human influence, with a best estimate probability ratio of 99,000 compared to a 1900 climate. Such events would have been at least 2°C cooler without anthropogenic influence. For the specific record of 38°C at Verkhoyansk, the study found a confident anthropogenic shift in intensity of 1.5°C, although the probability ratio for this specific station event is of lower confidence. By 2050, the regional heat is expected to be further intensified, with a synthesis change in intensity of 4.85°C compared to 1900.

In 2019, wind and solar generated 8.2% of global electricity, with the EU leading at 18%. The report highlights that wind and solar are now the cheapest new generation sources for two-thirds of the global population and that electricity grids remained stable during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdowns even as renewable shares reached record highs in countries like Denmark (65%), Germany (45%), and Greece (41%). To limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, the report notes that coal's market share must drop from 35% to 8% by 2030, requiring wind and solar's share to increase to approximately 29%.

In 2019, the global green bond market reached a record USD258.9 billion in issuance, a 51% increase over 2018. The market saw significant growth in non-financial corporate issuance and the entry of eight new countries. Europe led in cumulative volume, while the USA, China, and France remained the top individual countries by amount issued. Energy, buildings, and transport dominated the use of proceeds, accounting for 82% of the total. The report also notes a rise in green sukuk and the increasing importance of external reviews and Climate Bonds Standard certification.

The document highlights that older adults are disproportionately affected by extreme heat due to physiological vulnerabilities and social isolation. It argues that while air conditioning is critical, it can be inaccessible due to poverty or power failures, and its use contributes to further warming. The report emphasizes that social connection is a primary defense against heat deaths and details successful community interventions in cities like Philadelphia and Phoenix, while warning that the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates risks by increasing isolation.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) supports the European Commission's goal of at least 55% emissions reductions by 2030 and argues that achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires a diverse portfolio of advanced technologies beyond wind and solar. CATF recommends optimizing the EU ETS to fund commercial-scale demonstrations of carbon capture and hydrogen, implementing mandatory leak detection and repair for oil and gas systems, and using the EU's purchasing power to pressure major gas suppliers like Russia and Qatar to reduce methane emissions.

The document criticizes the May 30, 2020, opening of the Datteln 4 coal power plant in Germany, alleging that Uniper and its parent company Fortum received significant financial support from BNP Paribas and the European Central Bank (ECB). It claims BNP Paribas provided USD 215 million to Uniper and USD 2.9 billion to Fortum between 2017 and 2019, and that the ECB continues to support Fortum through quantitative easing without considering climate impact.

The report examines the impact of gas exploration in Mozambique, specifically in Cabo Delgado province. It alleges that French government support for energy companies like Total and financial institutions has exacerbated a cycle of corruption and violence. The document highlights a 2013 naval contract scandal that led to a financial crisis and links the militarization of gas infrastructure to the displacement of local communities and human rights abuses. Furthermore, it warns that the projected gas emissions from these projects represent a 'climate bomb' that contradicts France's stated climate goals.

Between January 2017 and June 2020, Japanese public and private institutions provided at least US$23.4 billion in financing for LNG infrastructure across 10 countries. The report argues that the original rationales for this policy—energy security, climate friendliness, and economic viability—are now flawed due to the vulnerability of supply chains exposed by COVID-19, the high global warming potential of methane leakages, and the declining costs of renewable energy. It highlights that major Japanese banks (MUFG, Mizuho, and SMBC) provided the bulk of this funding, while five major trading companies saw a combined year-on-year profit drop of US$625 million in LNG-related businesses by March 2020. The document concludes that continuing to fund LNG infrastructure risks creating stranded assets and contradicts the UN's Principles for Responsible Banking.

The report contends that US ICBM policy is outdated, as submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) now match or exceed ICBM capabilities while remaining invulnerable at sea. It argues that the continued deployment of ICBMs on high alert creates a dangerous risk of mistaken launch due to compressed decision timelines. The authors assert that the retention of the ICBM force is driven by non-security factors, including the economic interests of the 'ICBM Coalition' of senators and lobbying by defense contractors like Northrop Grumman. The report recommends retiring the ICBM force, eliminating 'launch-on-warning' options, and extending the life of existing Minuteman III missiles instead of spending $100 billion on the new Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) system.

The Union of Concerned Scientists asserts that US land-based ICBMs are outdated and dangerous due to their 'launch-on-warning' status, which risks accidental nuclear war. The report argues that submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) now provide equivalent capability with greater security. It opposes the $100 billion GBSD program, suggesting that existing Minuteman III missiles can be maintained until retirement, and recommends immediately removing ICBMs from high alert.

The research analyzes 259 autocratic regimes from 1946 to 2008 to determine if the predictability of election dates influences regime durability. The author posits that regular election cycles create focal points for dissident collective action and prevent incumbents from 'surfing' favorable political or economic conditions. Statistical analysis indicates that regimes with more regular electoral cycles have a significantly higher probability of failure. The study suggests that manipulating the electoral calendar—through snap elections or delays—serves as a survival strategy to stymie challengers and optimize the use of state violence.

The authors highlight the accuracy of previous intelligence warnings regarding pandemics to argue that similar foresight must be applied to climate change. They assert that unabated climate change will trigger global instability through food and water insecurity, mass migration, increased international tensions, and high-impact 'wildcard' events, necessitating a move toward net-zero emissions to protect global security.

The authors defend the creation of Kazakhstan's new Central Reference Laboratory (CRL), which opened on January 1, 2020. Funded by the US Department of Defense's Cooperative Threat Reduction program, the CRL replaces the dilapidated Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases (KSCQZD). The authors contend that the CRL's BSL-2 and BSL-3 standards mitigate the risk of laboratory accidents and natural infectious diseases, such as Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever and COVID-19, while calling for regional cooperation between Kazakhstan, Russia, and China to ensure transparency and compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention.

The authors argue that COVID-19 and climate change are direct threats to U.S. national security and act as 'threat multipliers' that amplify geostrategic competition and local conflicts. They contend that the U.S. should not simply reallocate funds away from national defense but instead expand the defense toolkit to include biodefense, climate adaptation for military bases, and support for international cooperation to prevent the collapse of global governance systems.