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The IISD recommends that the EU uphold its commitment to keep oil, coal, and gas in the ground within the Arctic to align with net-zero pathways, reduce geopolitical security risks associated with the Barents Sea, and protect fragile ecosystems from oil spills and noise pollution. The document further suggests a clear phase-out timeline for fossil fuel imports originating from north of the Arctic Circle, including the northern Norwegian and Barents seas, to maintain the EU's credibility as a climate leader alongside partners like Canada and Greenland.

The EU significantly expanded its renewable energy capacity between 2022 and 2025, with solar PV reaching 406 GW and wind reaching 246 GW. This transition reduced the bloc's reliance on imported fossil fuels, saving an estimated EUR 58 billion in coal and gas import costs. While countries like Spain have successfully delinked electricity prices from gas costs, others like Italy remain highly vulnerable due to continued dependence on imported fossil fuels, particularly during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting critical energy imports to Bangladesh, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fuel rationing, power cuts, and industrial shutdowns. ZCA analysis indicates that sustained high prices for oil, gas, and coal could increase Bangladesh's annual fossil fuel import bill by USD 4.8 billion (a 40% increase from 2025 levels), further straining foreign exchange reserves. The document argues that this recurring volatility, echoing the shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war, underscores the urgent need for Bangladesh to pivot toward renewable energy to avoid long-term fiscal distress and energy insecurity.

Europe experienced its coldest January since 2010, with temperatures 1.63°C above the 1991-2020 mean, though regional variations were significant. Forecasts for March-May 2026 project warmer-than-average temperatures across the continent, particularly in eastern and southeastern Europe, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

The RMI framework establishes rules for the issuance, transfer, and retirement of Book-and-Claim Units (BCUs) for low-emissions iron and steel. It introduces a dual functional-unit system (iron and crude steel) with eligibility thresholds anchored to ResponsibleSteel's Decarbonization Progress Level 3 (DPL3). To prevent fossil lock-in, the framework mandates route-specific criteria, including a 2035/2040 phase-out for BF-BOF eligibility and strict 90% capture rates for CCS/CCUS. It defines rigorous accounting methods—direct and enhanced substitution—to prevent over-claiming and double counting, while prohibiting on-product claims to maintain the incentive for physical green steel procurement.

The Council on Strategic Risks proposes that the US government invest $10 billion annually over 10 years in biodefense, noting that the FY26 request of $4.02 billion is insufficient given threats from Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran. The author suggests that 2% of the proposed $500 billion defense spending increase could fund critical enhancements in wastewater surveillance, medical countermeasure discovery via supercomputing, biomanufacturing, and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

The briefing examines the US$107 billion in potential investment for LNG terminals and gas pipelines in Southern Asia, specifically India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. While industry forecasts predict strong demand growth, Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that these countries have shelved or cancelled 2–3 times as much proposed LNG import capacity as they have brought online over the last decade. The document highlights that LNG remains uncompetitive against falling renewable power costs and that recent geopolitical shocks, such as the March 2026 conflict in Iran affecting the Strait of Hormuz, underscore the energy security risks of LNG dependence. While India continues to promote gas infrastructure, Pakistan has shifted toward domestic power and local gas exploration, and Bangladesh's new government signals a move toward renewables and domestic gas.

Analysis of the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET) reveals that the time from discovery to production for new oil and gas fields has increased significantly, averaging 15.1 years for fields starting in 2025 compared to 4.9 years between 1960 and 1980. This trend is driven by the depletion of easy-to-access reserves, forcing companies toward technically complex '20K' high-pressure reservoirs, deepwater projects, and 'acid gas' fields. Additional delays stem from stricter environmental regulations, such as the UK's 2025 requirement to include Scope 3 emissions in impact assessments, and ecological risks in protected areas. The report argues that these long lead times increase the risk of creating stranded assets and conflict with the 1.5 °C warming limit, suggesting that capital should be redirected toward renewable energy.

The IISD recommends that the EU uphold its Arctic fossil fuel extraction moratorium to ensure energy security, protect fragile ecosystems, and maintain policy coherence with the European Green Deal. The document argues that Arctic fossil fuels are too expensive, high-risk, and slow to develop to be viable, noting that new fields would only become operational after the EU should have advanced its net-zero pathway. It further suggests phasing out imports from the Barents and northern Norwegian seas to reduce security risks and align with partners like Canada and Greenland, who have implemented similar bans.

The report argues that South Africa must elevate the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in its strategic planning, as the region is critical for global climate regulation, food security, and maritime safety. While South Africa is the only African state party to the Antarctic Treaty, its diplomatic engagement has been inconsistent. The document highlights rising risks from climate change, such as sea-level rise threatening African coasts, and geopolitical tensions, including Russia's seismic surveying and the blocking of Marine Protected Areas by China and Russia. It suggests South Africa leverage its non-claimant status and role as a logistical gateway to enhance its influence, while warning that its under-resourced navy may struggle with increasing search and rescue demands from growing Antarctic tourism and rerouted shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

The document argues that African diplomacy at the UN is evolving into a distinct form of realpolitik that blends enduring values with strategic calculation. This approach is evidenced by voting patterns on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, where states use abstentions to maintain strategic autonomy. The brief highlights key institutional gains, such as the AU's permanent G20 seat and UN Security Council Resolution 2719 for financing AU-led peace operations, while noting that challenges in coordination, capacity, and consistency persist. Ultimately, it posits that Africa uses moral and legal narratives not to cloak domination, but to resist it and negotiate influence within an asymmetrical international system.

The document argues that the global military carbon footprint estimates provided by Bohigas et al (ranging from 0.5% to 1.3% of global emissions) are unreliable due to implausible assumptions and incomplete data. Specifically, it notes that the lower estimate assumes non-US militaries have zero emissions, while the upper estimate relies on US emissions intensity which may not reflect the higher fossil-fuel intensity of other major military spenders like China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. The author further highlights the omission of aviation's upper-atmosphere heating effects, 'scope 3+' war-fighting impacts, and the potential of environmentally-extended input output models (EEIOMs) to provide more accurate data.

The document analyzes how the Iranian regime and its allies used an 'axis of amplification' to frame nationwide protests as foreign-backed riots. It details the roles of state actors, regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and Western far-right and far-left accounts in spreading disinformation, promoting antisemitic tropes, and accusing the US and Israel of orchestrating the unrest to justify state repression.

Russia is attempting to leverage historical liberation-era ties and anti-Western rhetoric to maintain influence in Southern Africa, but faces significant constraints. While it maintains security cooperation and diplomatic links with several SADC members, its economic footprint remains modest, accounting for barely 1% of the region's external trade in 2024. The document highlights a gap between Moscow's symbolic gestures—such as debt forgiveness and limited grain shipments—and tangible developmental results, noting that sanctions and economic weakness hinder its ability to compete with China, the EU, and the US.

The briefing asserts that authoritarian regimes, specifically Russia, China, and Iran, are using hybrid warfare to undermine trust in democratic institutions and divide liberal societies. It argues that current government responses are too siloed and reactive, failing to deliver results. To counter this, the author proposes three strategic pillars: establishing a comprehensive counter-hybrid doctrine that includes asymmetric and offensive capabilities, reorganizing government structures to enable holistic coordination and multi-stakeholder coalitions, and prioritizing strategic communications to outcompete authoritarian narratives both domestically and internationally.

The report uses a fictional 2030 scenario to analyze how various global actors would react to a proposed Arctic-based Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) deployment. It concludes that geopolitical instincts and existing rivalries, rather than scientific data, would drive initial responses, with Russia posing the primary security risk. The authors argue that a trusted multilateral scientific assessment and early trust-building are essential to prevent miscalculation and escalation.

The document reports that Europe experienced its joint-fourth warmest December on record in 2025, with temperatures 1.99°C above the 1991-2020 mean. For the spring of 2026 (March-May), forecasts project warmer-than-average temperatures across the continent, with the highest anomalies in northeastern Europe, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

The report argues that South Korea's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels (84% of total energy supply) creates critical vulnerabilities to geopolitical conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, and South China Sea, as well as climate-driven infrastructure risks. It posits that a rapid shift to renewables can mitigate these risks, reduce financial burdens associated with energy price volatility, and support the energy needs of advanced AI and defense systems. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains and cybersecurity risks associated with digitalized grids, the document concludes these are manageable through battery storage innovation, grid modernization, and supply chain diversification. It recommends integrating renewable energy goals explicitly into national security planning and the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand.

The report argues that South Korea's heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports—approximately 84% of its total energy supply—creates significant national security vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions and climate risks. It posits that transitioning to renewable energy would reduce exposure to fragile maritime chokepoints, lower fiscal strain, and improve military readiness. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains and cybersecurity risks from digitization, the report concludes these are manageable compared to the structural risks of fossil fuel dependence. It recommends integrating renewable energy targets into national security planning and leveraging the newly created Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment to coordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy resilience.

The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) found that hundreds of English-language websites, including major news outlets and academic institutions, link to the pro-Russia Pravda network. Over 80% of reviewed citations treat the network as a credible source, often failing to contextualize it as a Russia-aligned information operation. This pattern of linking increases the network's perceived legitimacy and its likelihood of appearing in search engine results. To combat this, ISD developed a browser extension for Chrome and Edge that alerts users when they visit Pravda network sites.