Conflict in the Middle East is compounding the cost of Bangladesh delayed energy transition

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics explains how conflict in the Middle East is triggering an energy crisis in Bangladesh due to its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly those passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The document details the resulting fiscal strain, industrial disruptions, and the systemic risks of delaying a transition to renewable energy.

• Conflict in the Middle East is causing severe disruptions to Bangladesh's energy imports, which accounted for 65% of its power needs in 2024-2025. Specifically, the conflict has delayed an Aramco cargo of 100,000 tonnes of crude oil and led to the deferral or cancellation of approximately 60,000 tonnes of planned diesel imports in March. Furthermore, Qatar, which provides 75% of Bangladesh's LNG imports, suspended production and shipments following the outbreak of war.
• ZCA analysis indicates that if current elevated prices for oil, gas, and coal persist for one year, Bangladesh's annual fossil fuel import bill could increase by USD 4.8 billion. This represents a 40% increase from 2025 levels and is equivalent to 1.1% of the country's 2024 GDP. This financial pressure is expected to reduce the country's import cover ratio from 5.7 to 4.9 months.
• The energy shortage has led to significant domestic disruptions, including the shutdown of four out of five fertiliser factories in early March to conserve gas. The garment industry has faced power cuts of up to five hours a day, and 23% of power plants are reported to be inoperable due to gas shortages. To compensate, the government has increased coal burning, which the report notes will worsen air pollution.
• Bangladesh's transition to renewable energy has stagnated, with the share of renewables in the energy mix remaining around 2% between 2020 and 2023. To meet its 2030 goal of 20% renewables in the electricity mix, the country needs to deploy 760 MW of renewable capacity annually from 2026 through 2030; however, as of February 2026, only 358 MW of projects were in the construction pipeline.

APA

Nicol, J. (2026). Conflict in the Middle East is compounding the cost of Bangladesh delayed energy transition. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/conflict-in-the-middle-east-is-compounding-the-cost-of-bangladesh-delayed-energy-transition/

Chicago

Nicol, Jessica. Conflict in the Middle East is compounding the cost of Bangladesh delayed energy transition. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/conflict-in-the-middle-east-is-compounding-the-cost-of-bangladesh-delayed-energy-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nicol |first1=Jessica |title=Conflict in the Middle East is compounding the cost of Bangladesh delayed energy transition |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=17 March 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/conflict-in-the-middle-east-is-compounding-the-cost-of-bangladesh-delayed-energy-transition/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nicol2026conflict, author = {Nicol, Jessica}, title = {{Conflict in the Middle East is compounding the cost of Bangladesh delayed energy transition}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/conflict-in-the-middle-east-is-compounding-the-cost-of-bangladesh-delayed-energy-transition/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }