재생에너지로 한국의 국가 안보 보장

The report argues that South Korea's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels (84% of total energy supply) creates critical vulnerabilities to geopolitical conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, and South China Sea, as well as climate-driven infrastructure risks. It posits that a rapid shift to renewables can mitigate these risks, reduce financial burdens associated with energy price volatility, and support the energy needs of advanced AI and defense systems. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains and cybersecurity risks associated with digitalized grids, the document concludes these are manageable through battery storage innovation, grid modernization, and supply chain diversification. It recommends integrating renewable energy goals explicitly into national security planning and the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand.

• South Korea's energy system is highly vulnerable due to its reliance on imports for approximately 84% of its total energy supply, primarily fossil fuels, leaving it exposed to geopolitical conflicts and maritime bottlenecks.
• Fossil fuel imports are threatened by specific maritime chokepoints and regional conflicts, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Malacca Strait, the South China Sea, and potential conflicts involving Taiwan and North Korea.
• Climate change poses acute and gradual risks to energy infrastructure; for instance, a 1-meter sea level rise could impact six major oil import ports and four receiving ports, affecting 100% of refining capacity.
• The surge in AI investment, including a promised 7 billion USD government investment and 400 billion USD from Samsung and Hyundai, will create massive power demands that could be met through renewables and 'carbon-aware computing'.
• Modeling from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) suggests South Korea could achieve 80% clean power production by 2035, with 50% coming from wind and solar, while phasing out all coal power by 2035.
• While China dominates the critical mineral supply chain for renewables, this dependency is structurally different and more manageable than fossil fuel dependency because renewable components have long lifespans (e.g., solar panels up to 35 years).
• The transition to renewables introduces cybersecurity risks due to increased digitalization and decentralized grids, but offers an opportunity to build security into the design phase, unlike legacy fossil fuel infrastructure.

APA

백스터, 캐., 볼랜드, 릴., 엘리슨, 톰., 프리츠핸드, 노., 시코르스키, 에., & 페미아, 프. (2026). 재생에너지로 한국의 국가 안보 보장. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/02/%EC%9E%AC%EC%83%9D%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EB%A1%9C-%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%98-%EA%B5%AD%EA%B0%80-%EC%95%88%EB%B3%B4-%EB%B3%B4%EC%9E%A5/

Chicago

백스터, 캐롤라인, 릴리 볼랜드, 톰 엘리슨, 노아 프리츠핸드, 에린 시코르스키, and 프란체스코 페미아. 재생에너지로 한국의 국가 안보 보장. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/02/%EC%9E%AC%EC%83%9D%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EB%A1%9C-%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%98-%EA%B5%AD%EA%B0%80-%EC%95%88%EB%B3%B4-%EB%B3%B4%EC%9E%A5/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=백스터 |first1=캐롤라인 |last2=볼랜드 |first2=릴리 |last3=엘리슨 |first3=톰 |last4=프리츠핸드 |first4=노아 |last5=시코르스키 |first5=에린 |last6=페미아 |first6=프란체스코 |title=재생에너지로 한국의 국가 안보 보장 |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=2 February 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/02/%EC%9E%AC%EC%83%9D%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EB%A1%9C-%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%98-%EA%B5%AD%EA%B0%80-%EC%95%88%EB%B3%B4-%EB%B3%B4%EC%9E%A5/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{2026, author = {백스터, 캐롤라인 and 볼랜드, 릴리 and 엘리슨, 톰 and 프리츠핸드, 노아 and 시코르스키, 에린 and 페미아, 프란체스코}, title = {{재생에너지로 한국의 국가 안보 보장}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/02/%EC%9E%AC%EC%83%9D%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EB%A1%9C-%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%98-%EA%B5%AD%EA%B0%80-%EC%95%88%EB%B3%B4-%EB%B3%B4%EC%9E%A5/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }