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The report highlights a divide between emerging middle powers (IBSA) and Germany regarding the war in Ukraine, the dominance of the US dollar, and the role of BRICS+. While IBSA respondents prefer mediation in conflicts and view the US dollar's dominance unfavourably, German respondents support Ukraine and view the dollar's role as favourable. Despite these differences, there is shared optimism for the G20 and a common interest in the 2030 Agenda, specifically regarding technology transfer and global public investment.

The author examines the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and a values-based rhetoric, specifically regarding its engagement with Africa. Historically, Germany's approach has been 'economistic,' focusing on raw material imports and machinery exports. The paper argues that current geopolitical shifts and the need for critical minerals provide an opportunity for Germany to move away from post-colonial models. It suggests that instead of merely securing cheap resources, Germany should support a pan-African industrial policy, the mobilization of domestic resources, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to foster sustainable development and reduce Africa's dependence on raw material exports.

Indonesia is significantly underreporting its coal mine methane (CMM) emissions, with official figures being six to seven times lower than independent estimates. The report identifies critical flaws in the current reporting framework, including the use of inaccurate emission factors, outdated global warming potential (GWP) values, and the total exclusion of underground coal mines. These gaps risk undermining Indonesia's commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. The author recommends transitioning to higher-tier IPCC estimation methods, implementing data disaggregation at the mine level, and improving public transparency to ensure climate targets are met and mine worker safety is enhanced.

In 2023, Türkiye became Europe's second-largest coal-fired electricity generator, producing a record 118 TWh, with coal's share of total generation rising to 36%. This trend was driven by imported coal, primarily from Russia, which accounted for 73% of imports and 22% of total electricity generation. While solar capacity grew to over 12 GW, wind installations hit a 13-year low of 411 MW. The report notes that Türkiye's trajectory diverges from the EU, where coal generation halved since 2016. Despite a 2053 net-zero target, the National Energy Plan still forecasts new coal and gas capacity by 2035, and the report argues that rooftop solar potential (120 GW) remains underutilised.

The Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) now includes a novel right (Art. 79a) for individuals to claim and obtain compensation for health damage caused by violations of national laws transposing the directive. This is the first such right in EU environmental law and is being followed by similar provisions in the Ambient Air Quality and Urban Wastewater Treatment Directives. To succeed in a claim, three elements must be proven: health damage, a violation of IED obligations by an operator or Member State, and a causal link between the two. The author argues that Member States should implement presumption rules on causation and adapted burdens of proof to ensure the right is effective in practice, as claimants often lack the information available to industrial operators.

The European Union has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to secure critical raw materials (CRM) essential for green and digital transitions. These agreements aim to reduce the EU's heavy reliance on imports from quasi-monopolistic suppliers, particularly China. However, the paper identifies significant obstacles, including the DRC and Zambia's lack of comprehensive national CRM policies, high levels of corruption and political instability, and the continued dominance of Chinese mining interests in both countries. The author argues that for these partnerships to succeed, the EU must prioritize industrial and economic alignment over geopolitical security agendas and find ways to de-risk investments for the European private sector, potentially by strengthening state-owned mining companies in the partner countries.

The workshop highlighted that Japan's continued reliance on fossil fuel imports creates acute security vulnerabilities and trade-offs, particularly when intersecting with climate hazards and geopolitical tensions. Participants identified that public opinion can be a driver for the renewable energy transition if technology is perceived as viable, and suggested that Japan should pursue an energy resilience alliance with like-minded countries such as South Korea and Taiwan. The report emphasizes the need for deeper inter-governmental dialogue across Japanese ministries to integrate climate security into national defense planning and to mitigate supply chain risks associated with renewable technology, specifically reliance on China.

The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.

The document examines the intersection of food insecurity, climate change, and conflict, noting that while food security is beginning to be mainstreamed into multilateral processes, there is a critical lack of climate finance for green transitions in food systems. It highlights how food insecurity can increase security risks and be exploited by terrorist organizations for recruitment, urging a shift away from donor-driven approaches and policy silos to treat food security as a predictive tool for stability.

The document examines how African nations have responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a trend toward non-alignment and a reluctance to support punitive measures against Russia. It argues that African responses are driven by a combination of historical grievances with Western leadership (such as the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya and COVID-19 vaccine inequity) and strategic national interests. The report details the economic opportunities arising from Europe's shift away from Russian energy, specifically regarding natural gas and critical minerals, while warning that geopolitical rivalry between the US, Russia, and China may undermine regional security initiatives like the Accra Initiative. It concludes by advocating for a foreign policy based on 'non-alignment' and 'indivisible security' to avoid becoming proxies in a new Cold War.

The document analyzes Russia's strategic pivot toward Africa as a means to diversify partners and evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that while Africa is not a central priority for the Kremlin, it serves as a critical 'theater' for projecting power, securing natural resources, and challenging US-led unipolarity. The paper details Russia's approach across several sectors, including arms sales, nuclear energy, and mining, while highlighting the role of the Wagner Group in providing security in exchange for resource access. It concludes that Russia leverages African support at the UN to maintain its status as a global power and to promote a multipolar international system.

The IEJ criticizes President Ramaphosa's SONA for lacking concrete plans to address South Africa's economic crises, poverty, and unemployment. The organization urges MPs to question the President on the sustainability of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, the risks of private sector-led infrastructure and energy transitions, the 'starvation' of public services by the National Treasury, and the failure to hold state capture perpetrators accountable. The IEJ specifically calls for a transition to a Universal Basic Income Guarantee and the use of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA) to fund developmental priorities.

Reclaim Finance condemns TotalEnergies for distributing US$16.6 billion to shareholders in 2023 while continuing to prioritize oil and gas expansion. The organization calls on shareholders to vote against the reelection of directors, including Patrick Pouyanné, and against dividend allocations to push for a transition toward sustainable energy and emission reductions.

Russia's steel industry remains dominated by emissions-intensive coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technology, which accounts for 60.9% of its 88,400 ttpa operating capacity. Despite pressures from the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and corporate sustainability reporting rules in the EU and US, Russian companies are refurbishing old blast furnaces and planning new ones rather than transitioning to low-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) or hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) production. While Russia aims to produce 550 thousand tonnes of hydrogen per annum, it lacks domestic demand and faces challenges in DRI-EAF deployment due to the exit of key Western suppliers like Midrex, Danieli, and Primetals. The report suggests that redirecting investments from blast furnace relinings to hydrogen-based DRI could stimulate the domestic hydrogen market and align Russian steel with global decarbonization standards.

The global soybean sector, valued at USD 155 billion, is dominated by Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. While production has surged, it has driven significant deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado. Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSSs) like RTRS and ProTerra aim to mitigate these impacts, but their adoption remains low, representing only 1.6% to 2.3% of global production as of 2021. The report finds that VSS compliance offers limited financial incentives for most farmers, with premiums often being minimal or non-existent, though organic soy commands significantly higher prices. Climate change threatens future yields, necessitating the development of resilient cultivars and the establishment of deforestation-free supply chains.

Saudi Arabia was the world's largest arms importer between 2015 and 2019, relying heavily on the US and European allies for major weapon systems. While the Kingdom has attempted to diversify ammunition sources and develop a domestic defence industry under Vision 2030, it remains constrained by the need for interoperability with NATO-standard systems and a lack of an indigenous industrial base. The brief concludes that achieving full self-reliance would take decades, leaving the Kingdom vulnerable to the policy shifts of its primary suppliers.

The document analyzes Russia's strategic use of public media (RT, Sputnik, TASS) and social media to expand its influence in Africa. It highlights the use of anti-imperialist rhetoric to appeal to African audiences and the deployment of 'troll farms' and local proxies to disseminate polarizing content. Case studies on Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic illustrate how Russia combines digital influence with on-the-ground activities, such as funding local press and sponsoring cultural events, to present itself as a viable alternative to Western partners, despite operating with a limited budget.

The report concludes that the EU's demand for fossil gas and oil is in a long-term structural decline, making new production projects—especially in the Arctic—unnecessary and incompatible with 1.5°C warming limits. Analysis shows that existing production and current contracts will likely exceed EU demand by the 2030s in net-zero aligned scenarios, creating a risk of oversupply and stranded assets.

The document details Kazakhstan's efforts to eliminate its inherited Soviet nuclear and biological weapons legacies and its current leadership roles in the NPT and the proposed International Agency for Biological Safety (IABS). It recommends that Kazakhstan push for the elimination of tactical nuclear weapons, the creation of a nuclear weapons database, and the formalization of the IABS to address gaps in the Biological Weapons Convention.

An attribution study by the World Weather Attribution initiative found that human-induced climate change doubled the likelihood of the heavy precipitation associated with Storm Bettina and increased its intensity by approximately 5 percent. In contrast, the study found no clear evidence that climate change influenced the wind speeds of the event, attributing observed decreases in wind speed to natural variability. The analysis notes that warming increases the proportion of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, exacerbating flood damages, and that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war increased the vulnerability of affected populations.