Arming Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Paradox of Power and Vulnerability

Saudi Arabia was the world's largest arms importer between 2015 and 2019, relying heavily on the US and European allies for major weapon systems. While the Kingdom has attempted to diversify ammunition sources and develop a domestic defence industry under Vision 2030, it remains constrained by the need for interoperability with NATO-standard systems and a lack of an indigenous industrial base. The brief concludes that achieving full self-reliance would take decades, leaving the Kingdom vulnerable to the policy shifts of its primary suppliers.

• Between 2015 and 2022, Saudi Arabia was a dominant global arms importer, with imports of major weapon systems estimated at $23.9 billion. During this period, the United States was the primary supplier, accounting for 72% of imports, followed by the United Kingdom (9.6%), France (6.4%), and Spain (2.9%).
• Diversifying major weapon systems from non-Western sources like China or Russia is hindered by the requirement for interoperability. Most of Saudi Arabia's current systems are compatible only with Western-produced sensors, communications, and munitions. While the Kingdom could theoretically operate separate pools of Western and non-Western equipment, this would be more expensive, resource-intensive, and less effective.
• Saudi Arabia has shown more success in diversifying its ammunition suppliers than its major weapon systems, though it remains heavily dependent on the United States. Other identified ammunition suppliers between 2014 and 2021 included Brazil ($526 million), South Korea ($457 million), Spain ($373 million), the United Kingdom ($316 million), Croatia ($182 million), Bosnia and Herzegovina ($124 million), and South Africa ($124 million).
• The Kingdom's goal to manufacture 50% of its military equipment domestically by 2030 under the Saudi Vision 2030 plan is unlikely to be achieved quickly. The authors argue that self-reliance may take decades due to a lack of a skilled workforce and a poor historical record of industrial innovation outside the hydrocarbon sector.
• External political actions have impacted Saudi Arabia's military supplies. In February 2021, the US froze certain arms sales and precision-guided munitions for offensive operations in Yemen. Similarly, the UK faced legal challenges and a temporary suspension of new export licenses starting in 2017, with ammunition transfers dropping from $117 million in 2017 to $11,000 in 2019.

APA

Palik, J., & Marsh, N. (2024). Arming Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Paradox of Power and Vulnerability. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4034bc25-04f4-475b-a7eb-7b690863f3fc/MidEast Policy Brief 02-2024.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Palik, Julia, and Nicholas Marsh. Arming Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Paradox of Power and Vulnerability. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4034bc25-04f4-475b-a7eb-7b690863f3fc/MidEast Policy Brief 02-2024.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Palik |first1=Julia |last2=Marsh |first2=Nicholas |title=Arming Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Paradox of Power and Vulnerability |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=February 2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4034bc25-04f4-475b-a7eb-7b690863f3fc/MidEast Policy Brief 02-2024.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{palik2024arming, author = {Palik, Julia and Marsh, Nicholas}, title = {{Arming Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Paradox of Power and Vulnerability}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4034bc25-04f4-475b-a7eb-7b690863f3fc/MidEast Policy Brief 02-2024.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }