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The report finds that military climate strategies across 26 nations are largely unambitious, with most emissions uncovered by targets and progress relying on civilian grid decarbonisation or reduced activity rather than military technological innovation. While some success was seen in stationary base emissions in neutral countries like Ireland and Switzerland, core mobile emissions and supply-chain emissions remain largely unaddressed and are likely to rise due to increased global military spending.

Ember's analysis reveals a significant gap between planned renewable energy expansion and available grid capacity in Europe, with at least 120 GW of projects at risk. While some distribution grids can support household electrification, transmission bottlenecks threaten large-scale wind and solar projects, particularly in countries like Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland. The report advocates for 'non-wire solutions' and administrative reforms to unlock capacity and ensure energy security.

The document argues that the ICJ's 2025 advisory opinion transforms the legal landscape for investment disputes by establishing that climate action is a binding legal obligation rather than a discretionary policy choice. This shift undermines investor claims based on 'legitimate expectations' for fossil fuel activities and provides states with stronger defenses against claims of unfair and inequitable treatment (FET) or indirect expropriation. The author recommends that states reform investment treaties to exclude climate measures from compensation claims, limit prospective damages based on future fossil fuel revenues, and negotiate agreements to neutralize survival clauses in treaties like the Energy Charter Treaty.

The ICJ's 2025 Advisory Opinion establishes that states have binding legal obligations to protect the climate system, which includes phasing out fossil fuel production and subsidies. This finding challenges the legal basis for many investor-state claims, as it undermines the 'legitimate expectations' of investors in carbon-intensive industries and provides states with stronger defenses against claims of fair and equitable treatment (FET) violations. The brief argues that the prospect of ISDS can cause 'regulatory chill,' deterring necessary climate action. It recommends that states reform investment treaties through sector-based carve-outs, restrict forward-looking damages based on projected fossil fuel revenues, and coordinate withdrawals from outdated agreements like the Energy Charter Treaty.

In 2025, the EU power sector reached a tipping point as wind and solar generated 30.1% of electricity, surpassing all fossil fuel sources at 29.0%. Solar generation hit a record 369 TWh, growing by 20.1% over 2024, while coal fell to a historic low of 9.2% of the mix. Despite a slight increase in gas power generation and associated import costs, renewables provided nearly half of the EU's electricity (47.7%), with solar output helping to offset low wind and hydro production caused by unusual weather in early 2025.

The report argues that high electricity prices, often inflated by policy-related levies, make heat pumps less cost-competitive than gas boilers despite their superior efficiency. It analyzes various policy levers—such as removing levies, reducing VAT, or implementing innovative tariffs—to lower the electricity-to-gas price ratio, which the European Heat Pump Association suggests should be no higher than 2 for competitiveness. The analysis highlights that the Netherlands, with the lowest price ratio (1.4), has significantly higher heat pump sales than countries like Germany, Poland, or Hungary, where ratios exceed 3.

The report identifies 27 factors across four themes—EU internal dynamics, expected effects of enlargement, attitudes/norms/perceptions, and external factors—that influence EU accession decisions. It argues that while the process is formally merit-based, EU actors exercise significant discretion, with normative factors dominating early candidacy and economic or political interests predominating during later negotiations. The analysis highlights how these factors varied across the 'Big Bang' (2004), 'Coda' (2007), and Croatia (2013) rounds, and provides forecasts for the 'Trio' of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

As of Q3 2025, the cumulative volume of aligned GSS+ debt reached USD 6.5 trillion. Green bonds remain the dominant theme, accounting for 64% of aligned volume in Q3 2025, while sustainability-labelled debt is gaining momentum. Non-financial and financial corporates were the most prolific issuers in the quarter, and supranationals remain the largest historical source of cumulative aligned volume.

The report outlines a framework for sovereign transition planning based on five pillars: robust targets, a whole-of-government approach, green public financial management (PFM), a diverse policy mix, and transparency. It argues that integrating climate considerations into core budgetary processes (green PFM) is essential for coordinating action across all government departments. To address fiscal constraints and debt overhang, the report suggests alternative financing mechanisms, including carving out transition spending from deficit limits, utilizing GSS+ and sustainability-linked bonds, leveraging national development banks and sovereign wealth funds, and employing central bank monetary tools such as green asset purchases and adjusted collateral frameworks.

The briefing assesses the energy transition of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) region, noting that while some countries have reduced gas demand and integrated grids, Russian gas imports rose in 2024 for several members. It warns that planned expansions of LNG and pipeline capacity by 2030 risk creating stranded assets due to declining demand. The author recommends that the 10th Three Seas Summit focus on a 2027 Russian gas phase-out, the creation of a 'Transmission Highway' for clean power, and the development of regional energy hubs.

The Mediterranean region's renewable power capacity is projected to double from 315 GW in 2023 to 626 GW by 2030, primarily driven by solar and wind. However, this trajectory falls 374 GW short of the TeraMed Initiative's 1 TW goal. To bridge this gap, the region would need to install an additional 54 GW of wind and solar annually beyond current plans, totaling 98 GW per year, which significantly exceeds the historical maximum annual deployment of 45 GW.

On 24 February 2025, the UN Security Council and General Assembly passed three resolutions on Ukraine, revealing significant fractures in Western unity and a strategic shift in the Global South's approach. While Europe continues to demand Russian accountability and territorial integrity, the Trump administration has pivoted toward de-escalation and negotiations, leading the US to abstain from or oppose resolutions with harsh condemnatory language. Concurrently, Global South nations, including South Africa, India, and Brazil, are increasingly adopting a pragmatic, non-aligned stance that prioritizes diplomatic mediation and national interests over binary confrontations.

The Republic of Slovenia has agreed to provide a supplemental grant contribution of EUR 1,500,000 to the Green Climate Fund Trust Fund, to be paid in two installments by December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2025.

The briefing argues that the Energy Charter Treaty's (ECT) survival clause obstructs climate mitigation by allowing fossil fuel investors to seek compensation for government phase-out measures for 20 years after a state's withdrawal. To address this, the authors provide a model 'inter se' agreement that allows the EU and other non-EU contracting parties to modify the treaty among themselves to delete the survival clause. The document asserts that this modification is legally viable under Article 41 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), as it does not affect third-party rights, is not prohibited by the ECT, and aligns with the treaty's stated environmental objectives and the Paris Agreement.

The briefing reports that underground coal mines in the EU closed since 2015 may emit approximately 200 kt of methane per year, with Poland being the largest contributor. It notes that active coal mine emissions in the EU are likely underestimated, with GEM estimates being 36% higher than IEA figures. The report emphasizes that emissions from abandoned mines persist for years unless flooded, but data on the flooding status of over 60% of analyzed mines remains unknown, creating significant uncertainty in estimates.

Analysis of draft NECPs indicates that while EU member states have significantly increased wind and solar targets since 2019, the current trajectory falls short of REPowerEU goals. Renewables are projected to generate 66% of EU electricity by 2030, missing the 72% target. The report highlights a lack of data transparency in the drafts, particularly regarding power system flexibility and post-2030 decarbonisation pathways.

The document evaluates how CEE countries have integrated public consultation and multilevel climate and energy dialogues (MCEDs) into their updated NECPs, finding significant variability in quality and frequent failures to meet European law requirements for early and inclusive engagement.

The report emphasizes that while many OECD countries have integrated environmental goals into procurement, monitoring systems to track tangible impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are often neglected. Using examples from South Korea, Japan, Slovenia, Denmark, Malaysia, and the Netherlands, it identifies that successful monitoring requires strong government support and collaboration, though it is hindered by data gaps and tool complexity. The report recommends establishing legal mandates for monitoring, improving data management, and investing in staff capacity to ensure public procurement drives climate goals.

The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.

The report examines how governments can monitor green public procurement (GPP) to track progress toward climate goals. It categorizes monitoring into institutionalization, outputs, and outcomes, while detailing specific tools for measuring CO2 impacts. Through case studies of South Korea, Japan, Slovenia, Denmark, Malaysia, and the Netherlands, it identifies key success factors such as strong legal mandates and e-procurement integration. It also highlights significant barriers, including data insufficiency, decentralized procurement structures, and a lack of specialized technical skills. The document concludes with recommendations for governments to define clear targets, mandate monitoring through policy, and strengthen data management systems.