Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security

The report 'Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security' by Ember analyzes how limited grid capacity in Europe threatens energy security and economic competitiveness. It identifies significant shortfalls in grid hosting capacity for both new renewable energy projects and industrial demand, while noting that distribution grids are generally better prepared for household electrification, with notable exceptions in Spain and Poland.

• There is a 120 GW shortfall between planned renewable energy expansion by 2030 and available grid capacity across 20 reporting countries. Half of the countries that reported grid data lack the capacity required to connect new power generation.
• Transmission bottlenecks are particularly severe, with a 104 GW shortfall across ten of 17 reporting countries. In Austria, Bulgaria, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Slovakia, available grid capacity can accommodate less than 10% of the renewables planned for 2030.
• Insufficient distribution grid capacity puts 16 GW of planned rooftop solar at risk by 2030, potentially affecting 1.5 million households. The highest risks are in Slovenia, where 32% of households could be impacted, and Denmark, where 19% could be impacted.
• Grid capacity for new industrial loads varies significantly. Austria, Bulgaria, and Romania report zero available transmission capacity for new loads. Conversely, Czechia has available capacity of 6.3 GW, which is 60% of its 2024 peak demand.
• Distribution networks in six of eight reporting countries can support the electrification of households. Ireland has the highest potential, with capacity for heat pumps in 32% of households or EV chargers in 18%. In contrast, Spain can only accommodate electrification in 1% to 2% of households.
• Massive connection queues exacerbate capacity limits. Approximately 700 GW of renewables are queued across eight reporting countries. In Finland, Fingrid reported inquiries exceeding 400 GW, which is more than 16 times the existing 24.5 GW system.
• Non-wire solutions, such as grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) and non-firm connection agreements, could unlock between 140 and 185 GW of capacity across Europe. In the Netherlands, TenneT reported that non-firm contracts unlocked 9.1 GW, or 40% of national peak electricity demand.

APA

Cremona, E. (2026). Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth. Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |title=Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security |publisher=Ember |date=1 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2026crossed, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth}, title = {{Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }