Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security

Ember's analysis reveals a significant gap between planned renewable energy expansion and available grid capacity in Europe, with at least 120 GW of projects at risk. While some distribution grids can support household electrification, transmission bottlenecks threaten large-scale wind and solar projects, particularly in countries like Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland. The report advocates for 'non-wire solutions' and administrative reforms to unlock capacity and ensure energy security.

• There is a shortfall of 120 GW between the available grid capacity and the planned renewable expansion by 2030 across 20 reporting countries. Half of the countries that reported grid data lack the capacity required to connect new power generation.
• Transmission-level bottlenecks are a primary constraint, with a 104 GW shortfall across ten of 17 reporting countries. In Austria, Bulgaria, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Slovakia, available capacity can accommodate less than 10% of the renewables planned for 2030.
• Distribution grid constraints threaten rooftop solar deployment, putting 16 GW of planned capacity at risk and potentially affecting 1.5 million households. The highest risks are in Slovenia, where 32% of households could be impacted, and Denmark, where 19% could be impacted.
• Grid readiness for new industrial demand varies; three reporting countries—Austria, Bulgaria, and Romania—report zero available transmission capacity for new loads. Conversely, Czechia has available capacity of 6.3 GW, representing 60% of its 2024 peak demand.
• Most reporting countries' distribution grids can support household electrification, such as heat pumps and EV chargers. Ireland has the highest potential, capable of supporting heat pumps in 32% of households, while Spain and Poland face major limitations, with Spain accommodating only 1% to 2% of households.
• Massive connection queues exacerbate capacity issues, with nearly 700 GW of renewables waiting for agreements across eight reporting countries. In Finland, inquiries for electricity production exceed 400 GW, more than 16 times the existing system size of 24.5 GW.
• Non-wire solutions, including grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) and non-firm connection agreements, could unlock between 140 and 185 GW of capacity across Europe. In the Netherlands, TenneT reported that non-firm contracts unlocked 9.1 GW, or 40% of national peak demand.

APA

Cremona, E. (2026). Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth. Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |title=Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security |publisher=Ember |date=1 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2026crossed, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth}, title = {{Crossed wires: Grid capacity could block EU energy security}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Crossed-wires_Grid-capacity-could-block-EU-energy-security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }