10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity

This briefing by Ember analyzes the energy security landscape of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) ahead of its 10th annual summit in Warsaw. It argues that while 3SI countries have the infrastructure to fully eliminate Russian gas, there is a significant risk of creating 'stranded assets' through the overexpansion of LNG and pipeline capacity. The document advocates for a shift in focus toward a 2027 Russian gas phase-out, renewable energy deployment, and the creation of a 'Transmission Highway' to move clean power from coastlines to Central Europe.

• The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries possess sufficient existing infrastructure to eliminate Russian gas, including landlocked members like Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, whose non-Russian gas import capacities already exceed their demand.
• There is a significant risk of overcapacity in gas infrastructure; LNG import capacity in the 3SI region is projected to double by 2030, increasing from 25 bcm to 48 bcm, with further additions from the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline and EastMed projects. This expansion is at least twice the maximum anticipated demand growth for 2030, which is projected between 61 bcm and 90 bcm.
• Despite efforts to decouple, Russian gas imports to the EU increased by 18% in 2024, with specific increases in 3SI members: Czechia (+2 bcm), Poland (+0.6 bcm), and Greece (+0.5 bcm).
• The region has seen significant reductions in gas demand compared to pre-crisis levels (2019-2021 average vs 2022-2024 average), with decreases of 8% in Poland, 15-19% in Central Europe, and 28% in Lithuania.
• Ember proposes that the 10th 3SI summit should prioritize a complete decoupling from Russian energy by 2027 and initiate a "Transmission Highway" project to transfer clean power from the Baltic, Black, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas to industrial centers in Central Europe.

APA

Ember (2025). 10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/10th-three-seas-summit-from-gas-trap-to-clean-power-and-connectivity

Chicago

Ember. 10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/10th-three-seas-summit-from-gas-trap-to-clean-power-and-connectivity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity |date=17 April 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/10th-three-seas-summit-from-gas-trap-to-clean-power-and-connectivity |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember202510th, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/10th-three-seas-summit-from-gas-trap-to-clean-power-and-connectivity}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }