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The Industrial Transformation Technology and Investment Model (ITTIM) is an Excel-based tool that estimates energy use, CO2 emissions, and capital investment needs for industrial decarbonization. It employs a six-tier cumulative technology framework—ranging from energy efficiency to clean chemical feedstocks—to mitigate 97% to 99% of industrial emissions. The model currently supports datasets for China, India, Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and the United States, allowing users to simulate various scenarios including carbon pricing and different hydrogen cost projections.

The report argues that industrial electrification in India is economically viable across all temperature ranges when powered by low-cost solar energy. It finds that switching to electric technologies like heat pumps and thermal batteries can reduce industrial energy use by 22% and cut CO2 emissions by over half. The analysis highlights that solar-powered electrification is already cheaper than petroleum and natural gas across all temperatures and competitive with coal in several bands. To scale this transition, the report recommends streamlining Green Energy Open Access rules, reducing electricity cross-subsidies, and implementing production-linked incentives for clean commodities.

The report details how the Nsuta manganese mine in Ghana, operated by the Ghana Manganese Company (GMC) and controlled by China's Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry Group (TMI), is causing severe health and environmental damage. Findings include the use of toxic mine pit water for dust suppression, leading to skin, eye, and respiratory issues among residents, and the existence of an unstable tailings dump that threatens local homes. The report also highlights the risk to the Neung Forest Reserve, a critical biodiversity hotspot, as mining operations expand to meet the rising demand for manganese in EV batteries for companies like Tesla, Ford, and General Motors.

The document details Indonesia's strategic position in the global minerals market, particularly nickel, driven by aggressive downstream processing policies and export bans. It highlights the economic significance of mining (11% of GDP) and the associated environmental costs, including rising energy-sector emissions and deforestation. Socially, it notes significant gender disparities in the mining workforce and the prevalence of artisanal mining risks.

The report examines the tension between domestic data governance—driven by privacy, security, and industrial policy—and international trade rules. It argues that while data flows are essential for the global economy, the current legal architecture often reinforces structural asymmetries, where developing nations export raw data but import high-value services. The author analyzes the shift from WTO-led rules to preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and digital economy agreements (DEAs), highlighting the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol as a development-oriented model. The report concludes that developing countries must move beyond the binary of 'free flow vs. localization' toward calibrated, regional strategies that link trade commitments to implementation capacity and technology transfer.

Zambia, the world's 10th-largest copper producer, seeks to diversify its economy by moving beyond raw mineral exports. While the country has strong midstream capacity, refining and downstream manufacturing remain limited. The report identifies critical bottlenecks, most notably unreliable electricity and high logistics costs, and recommends a phased strategy: first scaling smelting and refining to capture immediate revenue, then building the infrastructure and skills necessary for high-value manufacturing. It emphasizes that Zambia's low-carbon energy mix is a strategic advantage for attracting global buyers seeking sustainable copper.

The report analyzes the role of Indian state governments in localizing the EV and battery supply chain, arguing that while central policies provide strategic direction, states control critical levers like land, power, and regulatory clearances. It finds that net localization for high-cost components like batteries and motors remains below 20%. The study categorizes 14 states into 'leading', 'aspirational', 'emerging', and 'differentiated' based on their policy strength and manufacturing competitiveness. Key recommendations include shifting toward indirect equity investment models to de-risk upstream battery production, establishing a design-linked incentive for R&D, and introducing phased zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates to create demand certainty.

Carbon Market Watch asserts that CORSIA is a "phantom scheme" due to patchy enforcement and reliance on low-quality offsets. The author highlights that US airlines, including United, Delta, and American Airlines, are unlikely to pay for their emissions under CORSIA, especially under the Trump administration. Consequently, the document urges the EU to expand the EU ETS to all departing EEA flights to generate revenue for transport decarbonisation and ensure airlines are held accountable for their carbon pollution.

The document argues that AI has entered its '1911 Moment,' shifting from experimental curiosity to real-world military and diplomatic application. It defines the spectrum of AI capabilities from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to theoretical Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and details current deployments of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) and AI-driven decision support in conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and elsewhere. The authors contrast the 'normal technology' view of AI with the 'exceptional technology' view, noting that the choice between these frameworks dictates whether policy should focus on governing deployment or controlling the models themselves. Finally, it highlights the use of 'compute diplomacy' and AI chip export controls as modern instruments of economic statecraft.

The report examines Africa's history of 'premature deindustrialisation' and proposes a strategic shift toward manufacturing to drive structural transformation. It models a scenario where increased investment in R&D, infrastructure, and labour participation leads to significant GDP growth, the creation of millions of jobs, and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty by 2043.

The document argues that Africa's economic underperformance is linked to a failure to maximize globalization and a heavy reliance on primary exports. It forecasts that full implementation of the AfCFTA would increase Africa's share of world exports to 4.4% and raise GDP per capita to US$6,602 by 2043, compared to 3.5% of exports and US$6,197 GDP per capita under a 'Current Path' scenario. Additionally, the AfCFTA is identified as a tool to reduce African countries' exposure to the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by diversifying export markets.

The report argues that Africa is disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and requires substantial support from wealthier nations to transition to renewables. It suggests a gradual phasing out of fossil fuels—starting with coal, then oil, and gas beyond 2050—contrasting with more rapid shifts proposed by other bodies. Key barriers identified include the failure of initiatives like JET-Ps to raise sufficient funds, the unfunded status of the loss and damage fund, and geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and the EU. The authors advocate for a differentiated global carbon tax, the operationalization of the Global Loss and Damage Fund, and the enhancement of Africa's role as a global carbon sink to balance economic growth with climate resilience.

The report highlights how Africa's infrastructure deficit, particularly in roads and aviation, increases transport costs and hinders investment. It notes a significant funding gap and a failure to implement regional air transport agreements, while acknowledging the role of China's Belt and Road Initiative in recent infrastructure development.

The report examines the state of manufacturing in Africa, noting that the continent's share of global manufacturing output fell to less than 2% by 2023. It highlights a trend of premature deindustrialisation, where economies shift to services before establishing a robust industrial base. To counter this, the document identifies key drivers for growth, including the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), green industrialisation, and the adoption of digital manufacturing technologies like AI and 3D printing. It also details specific infrastructure projects, such as the Musompo SEZ in the DR Congo, aimed at moving the continent up the value chain from raw mineral export to high-value production.

The document reports that 2024 was the warmest year on record, marking the first calendar year where global surface air temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. It details a surge in weather-related disasters, with 62% of all such events since 1984 occurring after 2004, and notes that over 240 million internal displacements occurred between 2013 and 2023 due to natural disasters. The text emphasizes that atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached record highs in 2024, hitting 426.7 ppm in May, which underscores the failure of current global policies to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets.

The document outlines the challenges and opportunities facing Africa's development, emphasizing the need to balance energy access with a low-carbon transition and the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It presents the 'Combined scenario' as a pathway to achieve the African Union's Agenda 2063 goals by 2043 through strategic investment and policy coherence.

The report analyzes Africa's high level of commodity dependence, noting that commodity exports constituted 90% by value of all merchandise exports in 2021. It argues that this dependence often leads to the 'resource curse,' characterized by poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. While some countries like Botswana have attempted to manage resources through sovereign wealth funds, many others face volatility and 'Dutch disease.' The text also highlights how the global energy transition is shifting demand toward minerals like cobalt and lithium, and how climate change is exacerbating vulnerability by reducing agricultural yields in regions such as the Sahel.

The report examines the evolution of governance in the Global South, tracing the impact of colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes. It analyzes current governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, noting a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity in some regions, while others show improved state capacity despite limited democratic freedoms.

The document concludes that Africa is positioned for a manufacturing surge if it can overcome structural bottlenecks through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), infrastructure investment, and smart industrial policy. It contrasts a 'Current Path' with a 'Manufacturing scenario' where, by 2043, the continent achieves higher GDP and employment by transitioning from a raw material exporter to a producer of value-added goods like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles.

The report identifies high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and a lack of regional value chains as primary obstacles to Africa's economic growth. It highlights a disconnect between Africa's focus on individual national economies and the global shift toward regional value chains, while noting that current global trends—including a move away from long transport routes to reduce carbon emissions and geopolitical shifts—could potentially benefit Africa's growing consumer base.