Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation

Zambia, the world's 10th-largest copper producer, seeks to diversify its economy by moving beyond raw mineral exports. While the country has strong midstream capacity, refining and downstream manufacturing remain limited. The report identifies critical bottlenecks, most notably unreliable electricity and high logistics costs, and recommends a phased strategy: first scaling smelting and refining to capture immediate revenue, then building the infrastructure and skills necessary for high-value manufacturing. It emphasizes that Zambia's low-carbon energy mix is a strategic advantage for attracting global buyers seeking sustainable copper.

• Zambia is a major global copper producer, ranking 10th worldwide and 2nd in Africa, with copper accounting for approximately 60% of its export revenues in 2023.
• Trade diagnostics from the ITC and OEC indicate that expanding midstream processing—specifically smelted copper anodes and refined cathodes—represents the most scalable near-term opportunity, potentially increasing annual exports by up to USD 3.7 billion by 2030.
• Downstream manufacturing of copper-based products currently accounts for only 1% of total copper exports and faces significant short-term constraints, though it holds long-term potential for regional markets in electrification and construction.
• Unreliable and insufficient electricity supply is the most critical binding constraint for industrialization, with recent power shortages directly curtailing output at facilities like the Chambishi copper smelter in 2024.
• Zambia's hydropower-dominated electricity mix provides a strategic competitive advantage in a decarbonizing global market, as it results in lower carbon intensity for copper production compared to major competitors like China.
• High logistics and trade costs significantly erode margins; transport costs for refined copper cathodes are estimated at USD 180–200 per tonne, which can represent 25%–100% of the export price.
• Structural financial constraints, including high borrowing costs and the underutilization of the movable collateral framework, limit the ability of small and medium-sized enterprises to invest in value addition.
• There is a significant misalignment between the government's target to reach 3 million tonnes of copper production by 2031 and the Integrated Resource Plan's projection that this level will not be reached until 2040.
• The report recommends a sequenced policy approach: prioritizing the efficiency and scale of midstream processing in the short term while simultaneously investing in the energy, skills, and logistics foundations required for future downstream manufacturing.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (2026). Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-04/leveraging-copper-economic-transformation-zambia.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation. 2026. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-04/leveraging-copper-economic-transformation-zambia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation |date=April 2026 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-04/leveraging-copper-economic-transformation-zambia.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment2026leveraging, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Leveraging Copper for Economic Transformation}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-04/leveraging-copper-economic-transformation-zambia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }