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The report analyzes Algeria's development pathway to 2040, highlighting a reliance on hydrocarbons, poor governance, and an unsustainable subsidy system. It projects a modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% under current policies but proposes an 'Algerian Dream' scenario involving democratic reform, economic diversification, and investment in the knowledge economy to achieve higher growth and inclusivity.

The Africa Energy Guarantee Facility (AEGF), a risk-sharing instrument launched by the European Investment Bank in 2018, aims to unlock $1.4 billion in clean energy investment across Africa by providing insurance against political and sovereign risks. While the facility leverages the EU's position as a major investor and supports the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI), its effectiveness may be hindered by high transaction costs, partial risk coverage, and low investor awareness. The document argues that for the AEGF to succeed, African policymakers must establish enabling regulatory frameworks and promote reforms that facilitate foreign direct investment and technical exchanges in climate-resilient infrastructure.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) supports the European Commission's goal of at least 55% emissions reductions by 2030 and argues that achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires a diverse portfolio of advanced technologies beyond wind and solar. CATF recommends optimizing the EU ETS to fund commercial-scale demonstrations of carbon capture and hydrogen, implementing mandatory leak detection and repair for oil and gas systems, and using the EU's purchasing power to pressure major gas suppliers like Russia and Qatar to reduce methane emissions.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) supports the European Commission's vision for clean hydrogen but urges a broader approach that includes carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy alongside renewables to accelerate decarbonization. CATF recommends sustained financial support for production demonstrations, investment in storage and delivery infrastructure, and cost assistance for hydrogen use in heavy industry and transport. Additionally, the document emphasizes the need for international collaboration, particularly with North African countries and the United Kingdom, and the implementation of transparent carbon intensity assessments for supplied hydrogen.

The document examines how COVID-19 exposes weaknesses in global institutions and threatens Africa through economic shocks, reduced development aid, and a retreat from multilateralism. It highlights the risk of increased trade protectionism and the potential for climate goals to be sidelined. The author advocates for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the creation of a continental climate finance fund, and a proactive African role in reforming global governance to mitigate these risks.

The author contends that the European Green Deal should not be treated as a separate environmental policy but as a geopolitical tool. By diversifying its economy and leading in clean technologies, the EU can reduce its vulnerability to pressure from the US and China and decrease its reliance on fossil fuel imports from authoritarian regimes. The text emphasizes that the transition must also address the stability of oil-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa and prevent internal EU divisions between East and West to avoid external interference.

The research paper examines Turkey's efforts to re-assert regional influence through military and economic engagement in North and East Africa. It highlights Turkey's support for the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, its strategic energy interests in the Mediterranean, and its long-term development and diplomatic presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. The text notes the complex interplay between Turkey, Russia, and the EU in managing the Libyan crisis, as well as Turkey's rivalry with a bloc including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The document analyzes the energy transition in North Africa, noting that electricity generation must nearly double by 2030 to meet growing demand. While the region is expanding renewable energy capacity and implementing efficiency regulations, natural gas is projected to remain the dominant power source by 2030 unless international financial support and technology transfer accelerate. The author highlights a tension between the region's low historical emissions and its high vulnerability to climate change, warning that insufficient climate finance from developed countries risks the region's ability to meet its Paris Agreement commitments.

The document examines the impact of COVID-19-related food export restrictions on vulnerable importing nations. It identifies high-risk areas in Central Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, noting that many affected countries already suffer from high undernourishment and calorie production deficits. The authors argue that because global food stocks remain plentiful, countries should refrain from banning staple food exports to prevent hunger and potential famines.

The document examines the shortcomings of current border security reforms in North and West Africa, noting that they often ignore the unique needs of borderland communities and the complexity of overlapping security mandates. It recommends a shift toward community consultation, the reduction of military roles in favour of law enforcement, and increased cross-border cooperation between neighbouring states.

Between 2016 and 2019, irregular migration from North Africa to Europe increased, characterized by a shift toward direct departures from home countries and a diversifying migrant demographic that now includes more women, children, and university graduates. The report identifies economic pessimism, structural inequality, and political exclusion as primary drivers, further amplified by a social media ecosystem that romanticizes Europe and provides practical smuggling advice. While European states prioritize border hardening, the report argues that such securitized approaches ignore underlying causes and may destabilize North African governments, which view migration as a social safety valve. It recommends transitioning from short-term technical fixes to comprehensive strategic programs addressing the rule of law and structural inequality.

The text advocates for the EU to integrate climate change into its security and foreign policy framework, proposing a 'geographical/geopolitical' approach to climate security. It suggests that climate change acts as a risk multiplier for conflict, migration, and instability, particularly in regions like the Sahel. The author proposes several Green Party initiatives, including the creation of an EU Special Envoy for Climate Security, the reservation of international funds for climate mitigation in destabilized countries, and reducing dependence on fossil fuels from autocratic regimes to enhance global stability.

The report highlights that while Africa has contributed minimally to global warming, it is disproportionately vulnerable due to high levels of extreme poverty and low state capacity. It projects that without significant intervention, the number of people in extreme poverty will rise until 2040, peaking at 590 million. The document argues that prioritizing human development—specifically education, healthcare, and water infrastructure—is essential to increasing adaptive capacity. It contrasts the 'Current Path' with a 'Green Road' scenario where inclusive, sustainable growth effectively eliminates extreme poverty by mid-century and significantly reduces the population lacking access to improved water.

The document analyzes climate change as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates global instability and poses direct risks to U.S. military infrastructure and operations. It details how the Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies like the DHS and CIA integrate climate risk into planning, focusing on issues such as mass migration, water scarcity, and the opening of the Arctic. The brief also outlines specific energy and resilience initiatives across the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, while noting the tension between military adaptation needs and Congressional fiscal priorities.

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) views climate change as a "threat multiplier" that amplifies existing global instabilities such as poverty and political tension. The document outlines critical risks including mass population displacement, water scarcity leading to potential "weaponization of water," and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic due to sea ice loss. Domestically, climate change threatens the readiness of DOD's vast real estate portfolio, valued at approximately $850 billion. The briefing details adaptation and mitigation efforts across the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, while noting the inconsistent nature of Congressional support for climate-security policies.

The author contends that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates global instability, migration, and conflict, yet remains absent from public debate. The text proposes that the EU shift toward a 'geographic climate security policy'—modeled on UNEP's analysis of the Sahel—which assesses how climate factors intersect with political and security risks in specific territories. To implement this, the Greens suggest creating an EU Special Representative on Climate Security, mainstreaming climate security across all external policy funds, and reducing European dependency on fossil fuel imports from autocratic states to limit their ability to finance aggression.

The document examines the gap between Africa's formal legal commitments to freedom of movement and the actual practice of migration governance. While the African Union and various Regional Economic Communities have established frameworks to promote labour mobility and economic integration, implementation remains inconsistent. West Africa is highlighted as the most advanced model, whereas Southern Africa is noted for a securitised approach to migration. The brief argues that aligning regional policies and improving communication on the net benefits of migration are essential for unlocking the continent's development potential.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The document positions irrigation as a primary tool for agricultural transformation in Africa, essential for improving resilience to climate change and extreme events. It identifies significant barriers, including water scarcity, limited technical skills, and a massive investment gap, estimated by the World Bank at over USD 40 billion. The paper advocates for a comprehensive approach involving national Master Plans for Irrigation, the integration of groundwater use to combat droughts, and a shift toward public-private partnerships to fund both large-scale and smallholder irrigation systems. It emphasizes that achieving full irrigation potential in Sub-Saharan Africa over a 50-year horizon would require diverting up to 50 percent of agricultural expenditures to water management.

The document examines youth radicalisation in Africa as a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors. It argues that while religious ideology is often used as a justification, the actual drivers are frequently rooted in political repression, systemic corruption, socio-economic exclusion, and weakened family structures. The paper emphasizes that responses must be nuanced and evidence-based, moving beyond a 'one size fits all' approach to address specific local and structural vulnerabilities.