The National Security Impacts of Climate Change

The document analyzes climate change as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates global instability and poses direct risks to U.S. military infrastructure and operations. It details how the Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies like the DHS and CIA integrate climate risk into planning, focusing on issues such as mass migration, water scarcity, and the opening of the Arctic. The brief also outlines specific energy and resilience initiatives across the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, while noting the tension between military adaptation needs and Congressional fiscal priorities.

• The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) views climate change as a "threat multiplier," meaning it amplifies existing stressors such as poverty, political instability, and social tensions, which can lead to increased conflict and instability.
• Climate-induced migration is a significant security risk, as those displaced by environmental factors do not currently meet the legal definition of a refugee. This displacement can lead to direct risks for border security, indirect economic disruptions, and third-order risks such as conflicts over scarce resources, as seen in Darfur and Syria.
• Water scarcity is projected to increase the likelihood of conflict in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia by 2040, particularly regarding the Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, and Indus river basins. This scarcity may lead to the "weaponization of water," where groups like the Islamic State and Al-Shabaab use water resources for strategic, tactical, or coercive purposes.
• The melting of Arctic sea ice is opening new navigation routes and providing access to an estimated 30 percent of the world's undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of its undiscovered oil. The U.S. is currently at a disadvantage in this region, possessing only one aged icebreaker compared to Russia's 27 ocean-going icebreakers.
• Climate change poses a direct threat to DOD's massive real estate portfolio, which includes 562,000 buildings and structures across 4,800 sites worldwide with an estimated replacement value of roughly $850 billion. Extreme weather events like flooding and wildfires can damage facilities and disrupt training operations.
• Different military branches have implemented specific energy and resilience goals: the Navy has tested biodiesel blends via the "Great Green Fleet"; the Marine Corps focuses on reducing fossil fuel dependence for expeditionary forces; and the Army's Office of Energy Initiatives (OEI) manages renewable projects to ensure 25 percent of its electricity comes from renewable sources by 2025.
• There is a disconnect between the military's operational need for climate adaptation and Congressional funding. While the NDAA for FY2018 requires reports on vulnerable installations, the House version of the NDAA for FY2017 explicitly forbade the use of appropriated funds for climate adaptation measures.

APA

La Shier, B., & Stanish, J. (2017). The National Security Impacts of Climate Change. Environmental and Energy Study Institute. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-the-national-security-impacts-of-climate-change

Chicago

La Shier, Brian, and James Stanish. The National Security Impacts of Climate Change. Environmental and Energy Study Institute, 2017. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-the-national-security-impacts-of-climate-change.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=La Shier |first1=Brian |last2=Stanish |first2=James |title=The National Security Impacts of Climate Change |publisher=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |date=20 December 2017 |url=https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-the-national-security-impacts-of-climate-change |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lashier2017national, author = {La Shier, Brian and Stanish, James}, title = {{The National Security Impacts of Climate Change}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-the-national-security-impacts-of-climate-change}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }