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KI in Afrika: Zentrale Fragestellungen und politische Erwägungen für die Zukunft des Kontinents
The document examines the role of Africa in the global AI supply chain and the risks posed by the dominance of foreign AI firms, particularly from China and the Global North. It highlights specific harms including predatory financial offers via digital IDs in South Africa, human rights violations through facial recognition in Uganda and South Africa, and exploitative 'click work' in Kenyan refugee camps. The brief reviews emerging national AI strategies in Mauritius, Egypt, and Rwanda, and the SMARTAfrica 'Blueprint on Artificial Intelligence for Africa'. It argues that while EU frameworks like the AI Act and GDPR provide some guidance on human rights, they often fail to address African socio-economic realities, such as the gender digital divide and infrastructure deficits. The author recommends that African governments focus on building sustainable local AI ecosystems, enhancing regional data cooperation via the AfCFTA, and ensuring the economic participation of local communities.
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Document type: Policy brief
AI in Africa: Key Concerns and Policy Considerations for the Future of the Continent
The document examines the impact of AI in Africa, highlighting risks such as predatory data use in South Africa, surveillance in Uganda, and the exploitation of 'click work' in Kenyan refugee camps. It reviews national AI strategies in Egypt, Mauritius, and Rwanda, and the SMARTAfrica Blueprint, while cautioning against the uncritical transfer of EU regulatory models like the GDPR. The author recommends that African governments focus on building sustainable local AI ecosystems, enhancing digital skills for women, and establishing regional cooperation to regulate multinational tech monopolies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries
The analysis examines how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks like green spaces and water bodies increases urban heat risks in major cities across the Critical 9 countries. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 scenario, the report details specific land-use losses in cities such as Shanghai, Karachi, and Dhaka, linking these changes to increased vulnerability to dangerous heat days (above 35°C) and rising energy demands for active cooling.
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Document type: Report
How to Ensure that the AfCFTA Propels Africa’s Green Transition
The document analyzes the intersection of the AfCFTA and climate action, arguing that while the agreement has minimal environmental references, it can be adjusted to eliminate barriers to environmental goods and services. It emphasizes the need for a phased decarbonization approach for fossil-fuel-dependent nations and suggests that instead of adding a new Environmental Protocol, existing continental climate strategies should be reinforced. The text calls for increased climate financing, technology transfer from partners like the EU and US, and the promotion of a circular economy to ensure that increased intra-African trade does not lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions.
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Document type: Executive summary
Country Diagnostic Report: NIGERIA
The report examines Nigeria's food systems, highlighting a projected increase in chronic hunger and extreme poverty by 2030. It identifies livestock as the primary source of agricultural GHG emissions and notes significant climate vulnerabilities, particularly for rice yields. The analysis reveals a stark dietary divide between income groups, with wealthier households consuming more animal-based proteins. While national dietary guidelines and climate policies exist, the report finds a substantial gap in Official Development Assistance (ODA) required to meet SDG 2 targets.
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Document type: Report
Peace & Security Council Report
The report examines the African Union's struggle to deter military coups and combat terrorism, highlighting the limitations of current frameworks and the need for a more holistic approach. It focuses on the Malabo summit's agenda, including the Accra Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government and the establishment of an African Standby Force counterterrorism unit. The document also analyzes the security volatility in the Lake Chad Basin and the fragile humanitarian truce in Ethiopia, arguing for a shift from purely militaristic responses to those incorporating political and social measures.
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Document type: Report
Natural Gas in Africa
The report contends that natural gas expansion in Africa contradicts the Paris Agreement and poses significant economic and environmental risks. It argues that renewable energy is more cost-effective and creates more sustainable employment than the fossil fuel industry. Through case studies of Egypt, Nigeria, and Senegal, the document demonstrates that shifting from gas-based power to high-renewable scenarios would increase job creation and, in the case of Egypt, significantly reduce premature deaths from air pollution. It concludes that developed nations must stop financing fossil fuels and increase climate finance to support Africa's transition to zero-emissions energy systems.
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Document type: Report
Leveraging the AfCFTA Under a Unified Industrial Policy for Africa
The author contends that Africa's industrialization is hindered by a fragmented policy landscape where countries are often subject to three or more overlapping industrial strategies. This coordination failure, combined with poor infrastructure and low innovation capacity, has led to 'de-industrialisation' in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the industrial sector's contribution to GDP has declined relative to the primary sector. To leverage the AfCFTA, the paper proposes a unified industrial policy focusing on pooled resources for infrastructure, regional product specialization, SME growth, clean energy transitions, and the development of indigenous technologies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Blue Metal Blues: Cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and China
The document analyzes China's strategic control over the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt and copper supply chains, from extraction to refining. It examines the 'resources-for-infrastructure' model initiated under President Joseph Kabila and the subsequent efforts by President Félix Tshisekedi to renegotiate contracts. The author argues that while a 'US vs China' rivalry narrative exists, the dynamics are heavily influenced by internal Congolese political needs, including electoral goals and financial gain, and notes that Chinese firms are often preferred due to their flexibility in opaque business environments.
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Document type: Policy brief
Investment in technologies of today: increasing flows of finance into developing countries
The paper argues that developing countries lack the financial sector capacity to fund the scale of investment required for low-carbon transitions. It distinguishes between 'commercially viable technologies' that need scaled-up investment and 'financially underserved technologies' that require de-risking. Proposed solutions include the creation of a Global Clean Investment Risk Mitigation Mechanism (GCI-RMM), the implementation of sustainable taxonomies and corporate disclosures, and the use of carbon pricing. The authors emphasize that multilateral cooperation is essential to harmonize these regulations and increase grant-based concessional finance to catalyze private investment.
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Document type: Research paper
Ensuring affordable, favourable and sustainable lifestyles for all
The paper examines the dissonance between quality of life and environmental sustainability, highlighting how developed economies' high-consumption lifestyles drive global ecological overshoot. It critiques the current capitalistic model that equates purchasing power with freedom and argues that developing nations are unfairly burdened by historical emissions and resource depletion. To address this, the authors propose replacing GDP with a 'Green GDP' that integrates ESG norms and establishing a 'Conference of Parties on Utilization of Resources' (CoP-UR) to manage a global resource budget and hold polluting nations accountable.
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Document type: Research paper
Nasreen Al-Amin and her organisation are building greener communities through locally-led adaptation
The document profiles Nasreen Al-Amin and her non-profit, Surge Africa, focusing on the Jeji Restoration project in Kumbo, Kano State. This initiative employs nature-based solutions, specifically tree plantation, to restore degraded land and provide sustainable livelihoods for marginalised communities, including those affected by war and environmental conflicts. The project emphasizes community ownership, the use of local languages for training, and the integration of income generation with environmental restoration.
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Document type: Case study
How are the big three rating agencies impacting African countries?
The paper examines the rise of Eurobond issuance in Africa as governments seek alternatives to aid, noting that sovereign credit ratings from Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P are essential for market access. It finds that most African countries' ratings have deteriorated since their first assessment, leading to higher borrowing costs and prioritizing debt repayment over human rights and health during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors criticize the 'big three' for their oligopolistic nature, unreliable methodologies, and limited physical presence in Africa, recommending increased regulation, accountability, and transparency in how Eurobond funds are utilized.
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Document type: Research paper
Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder?
The document examines the rise of Eurobonds as a development financing tool in Africa and the corresponding increase in sovereign credit ratings assigned by Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. It finds that most African countries' ratings have deteriorated since their first assessment, increasing borrowing costs and sometimes forcing governments to prioritize debt repayment over public health and human rights during crises like COVID-19. The authors criticize the 'big three' for their oligopolistic nature, lack of local presence, and use of unsolicited ratings, recommending stricter regulation, better local knowledge, and transparent project-linked borrowing.
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Document type: Research paper
Kaduna’s train attacks add to Nigeria’s deep security problems
The March 2022 attacks on the Abuja-Kaduna railway, which resulted in deaths and 168 kidnappings, indicate a shift toward targeting state infrastructure by bandits and violent extremists. These groups, including Boko Haram and Ansaru, fund their operations through a kidnapping economy, with an estimated US$18.34 million paid in ransoms between 2011 and 2020. The attacks threaten the economic viability of the railway, which generates N300 million monthly, and highlight the need for intelligence-led security and the resolution of underlying socio-economic issues like poverty and corruption.
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Document type: Research paper
Transitional justice: Testing the waters in the Lake Chad Basin
The report examines the applicability of transitional justice in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), noting that while the region is not yet post-conflict, there is a need for mechanisms to address mass human rights abuses. It finds that LCB countries are at different stages of conceptualising these tools and that a balance between restorative and retributive justice is necessary. The document highlights the importance of local ownership, the role of traditional and religious conflict resolution mechanisms, and the need to address root causes of violent extremism such as structural inequalities.
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Document type: Report
Powering Small-Format Electric Vehicles with Minigrids
The report evaluates the integration of small-format electric vehicles (EVs) with rural minigrids, finding that while EVs can be cost-competitive with petrol alternatives, their success depends on high vehicle utilization and business models tailored to local needs. A Nigeria pilot using a two-wheeler leasing model showed promise, whereas an India pilot using a battery leasing model for three-wheelers failed due to high operational costs and drivers charging via the subsidized grid. Technoeconomic modeling indicates that EV charging can lower minigrid tariffs, particularly when charging occurs during daytime solar production, though the impact is modest unless fleet utilization is significantly increased.
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Document type: Report
DÉCLARATION DE LAGOS SUR LA JUSTICE COMMUNAUTAIRE
The Lagos Declaration on Community Justice outlines a series of pledges by West African organisations to strengthen legal empowerment for the poor. Key commitments include training paralegals to address climate change and land rights, increasing the participation of women in legal work, and advocating for the formal recognition of community paralegals across the region. The participating organisations, forming the West Africa Legal Empowerment Network, aim to co-create participatory action research to tackle environmental and land justice challenges in both rural and urban settings.
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Document type: Statement
Macroeconomic Policy Development in Tanzania
The document assesses Tanzania's macroeconomic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the use of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies to avoid recession. It recommends strengthening healthcare, implementing macroprudential policies, and prioritizing climate-resilient economic development and social protection for vulnerable groups.
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Document type: Policy brief
Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies
The document examines the COVID-19 macroeconomic responses of South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin, Tanzania, and Uganda. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were more vulnerable to trade shocks but had greater capacity for fiscal and financial stimulus. In contrast, Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal government reactions. The report highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green energy, diversified revenue bases, and the redirection of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from high-income nations to support African development and climate adaptation.
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Document type: Policy brief