Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder?

This research paper examines the drivers and consequences of the increased issuance of Eurobonds and sovereign credit ratings in Africa. It argues that while Eurobonds were intended to reduce reliance on aid, the dominance of the 'big three' rating agencies—Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poor's—has often led to deteriorating credit ratings, higher borrowing costs, and constrained policy space for African governments, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Since 2006, Eurobonds have become a significant financing source for African development, used for deficit financing, public debt management, and infrastructure spending in energy and transport. The shift toward these instruments was driven by a desire to reduce reliance on aid and increased inclusion in global capital markets. By 2021, 21 African countries had outstanding sovereign Eurobonds totaling €123 billion.
• Sovereign credit ratings are a mandatory requirement for issuing Eurobonds as they determine the costs and conditions of market access. The number of African countries rated by Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor (S&P) grew from 10 in 2003 to 31 in 2021, with the average number of annual ratings increasing from 7 (1994-2007) to 37 (2008-2020).
• Most African countries that have issued Eurobonds have seen their credit ratings deteriorate compared to their initial ratings. This decline has serious implications for debt servicing costs, as poor ratings signal higher risk and lead to higher interest rates. African countries face interest rates between 5% and 16% on 10-year government bonds, significantly higher than the near-zero or negative rates in the USA and Europe.
• The 'big three' rating agencies are accused of assigning 'unsolicited' credit ratings—ratings issued without a request from the government and based on public data without a formal contract. Moody’s has assigned the highest number of these unsolicited ratings, which have been contested by governments including Ghana, Nigeria, Namibia, Zambia, and Tanzania.
• Fear of credit rating downgrades has negatively impacted government decision-making during crises. During the COVID-19 pandemic, some governments prioritized debt repayments over public health and economic recovery to avoid downgrades, employing tight macroeconomic policies that may hinder long-term growth and human rights obligations.
• The paper identifies a lack of local knowledge and accountability among rating agencies. S&P and Moody's each have only one office in Africa (both in Johannesburg), while Fitch has none. This limited presence, combined with a reliance on past behavior and a lack of understanding of local contexts, creates room for error in ratings.

APA

Chirikure, N., & Chelwa, G. (2022). Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder? Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/de/rating-agenturen-einfluss-afrika-en

Chicago

Chirikure, Nora, and Grieve Chelwa. Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder? Africa Policy Research Institute, 2022. https://afripoli.org/de/rating-agenturen-einfluss-afrika-en.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chirikure |first1=Nora |last2=Chelwa |first2=Grieve |title=Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder? |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=19 April 2022 |url=https://afripoli.org/de/rating-agenturen-einfluss-afrika-en |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chirikure2022wie, author = {Chirikure, Nora and Chelwa, Grieve}, title = {{Wie beeinflussen die „Großen Drei“ Rating-Agenturen afrikanische Länder?}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://afripoli.org/de/rating-agenturen-einfluss-afrika-en}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }