Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies

This policy brief synthesises case studies from six sub-Saharan African countries to analyse government responses to trade and employment shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It evaluates these responses against long-term goals of social inclusivity and climate resilience, highlighting how economic structure and financial depth influenced the capacity to implement fiscal, financial, and monetary stimuli.

• Vulnerability to COVID-19 shocks varied by economic structure: wealthier, more open, and formalised economies like South Africa and Senegal were most impacted, as was Nigeria due to its sensitivity to oil price fluctuations and Uganda due to strict domestic lockdowns. Conversely, Benin and Tanzania saw only marginal growth deceleration because government reactions were delayed or minimal.
• The capacity to provide fiscal stimulus depended on income status, financial market depth, and access to global finance. South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive packages. Nigeria was limited by a volatile tax base and high bank liquidity, while Benin, Tanzania, and Uganda adopted more conservative spending responses due to uncertainty over tax shortfalls.
• Fiscal stimulus priorities differed across the studied nations. Most countries focused on tax relief and industry support, but South Africa was an outlier, allocating 60% of its package to social security and unemployment benefits. Benin and Uganda dedicated approximately half of their stimulus to health spending.
• Financial stimulus capacity was highest in South Africa and WAEMU countries (Senegal and Benin) due to deeper financial markets and established concessional finance channels. Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda lack these capabilities and need to expand into capital and insurance products to activate such channels.
• Monetary policy responses were limited in several countries: Senegal and Benin are constrained by the Central African franc's peg to the euro, and Nigeria feared that stimulus would trigger inflation and currency depreciation. Only South Africa and Uganda accelerated money supply growth in alignment with their fiscal stimuli.
• Most COVID-19 policy responses were reactive and failed to integrate climate transition goals. While Nigeria redirected fossil fuel subsidies to public works (climate-positive) and South Africa delayed its carbon tax (climate-negative), most other measures were climate-neutral or indirectly negative.
• African nations face a potential 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024, driven by the maturation of IMF concessional debt, Eurobonds, and loans from China and Arab nations. Uganda is identified as the most exposed to this risk among the case studies, with 3.9% of its GDP being IMF funded.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies |date=4 March 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022recovering, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }