Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies

The document examines the COVID-19 macroeconomic responses of South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin, Tanzania, and Uganda. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were more vulnerable to trade shocks but had greater capacity for fiscal and financial stimulus. In contrast, Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal government reactions. The report highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green energy, diversified revenue bases, and the redirection of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from high-income nations to support African development and climate adaptation.

• Vulnerability to COVID-19 trade and employment shocks was highest in wealthier, diversified, and open economies such as South Africa and Senegal, as well as in Nigeria due to oil price sensitivity and Uganda due to strict lockdowns.
• Fiscal stimulus capacity varied by country: South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive packages, while Nigeria was limited by a volatile tax base. South Africa uniquely allocated 60% of its stimulus to unemployment and social security, whereas Benin and Uganda spent half of their packages on health.
• The report identifies a critical risk of a 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024, driven by the maturation of IMF concessional debt, Eurobonds, and loans from China and Arab lenders.
• Most COVID-19 policy responses were reactive and ignored the energy transition. South Africa delayed its carbon tax, while Nigeria redirected fossil fuel subsidies toward public works.
• To improve resilience, the document proposes that African nations collectively negotiate for high-income countries to redirect 55% of their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocations to African countries, with two-thirds of these funds dedicated to green energy infrastructure.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is identified as a key mechanism to reinvigorate economies by removing intra-African tariffs and standardising non-tariff barriers by 2035.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies |date=4 March 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022recovering, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/recovering-from-covid-building-resilience-in-select-african-economies/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }