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The report analyzes how the informality of artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger facilitates illicit financial flows (IFFs) and fuels regional conflict. It examines the legal frameworks, the scale of gold smuggling—particularly to the UAE—and the ways non-state armed groups exploit mining sites for funding and recruitment. The document highlights a 'vicious circle' where state absence and corruption drive miners toward informal or militant-controlled sites, while recommending simplified formalization, tax harmonization, and multi-level governance to stabilize the sector.

The Russia-Ukraine war has worsened systemic weaknesses in the international food system, disproportionately affecting African countries due to their high reliance on food, fuel, and fertiliser imports from Russia and Ukraine. This vulnerability is compounded by climate-induced weather events, internal conflicts, and structural infrastructure deficits. The report highlights that food price shocks have already triggered protests in countries like Uganda, Malawi, Senegal, and Sudan. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend that private companies support the diversification of food sources and local agribusiness capacity, while African governments should reduce regulation and leverage regional integration platforms like the AfCFTA.

The author argues that Africa-EU relations are characterized by a historical imbalance and a lack of mutual respect, which is exacerbated by the EU's shift toward a 'geopolitical commission' and the diversion of security resources to Ukraine. The document highlights how the replacement of the African Peace Facility (APF) with the European Peace Facility (EPF) allows the EU to bypass the African Union (AU) in security decisions, prompting African states to seek transactional 'Plan B' partnerships with other global powers like China and Russia. The author contends that African positions on the war in Ukraine are driven by pragmatism rather than Russian influence, and warns that failing to acknowledge this nuance risks further deteriorating the partnership.

The author argues that EU-Africa relations are characterized by a historical imbalance and a lack of mutual respect, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. The document highlights how the EU's shift toward geopolitics and the creation of the European Peace Facility (EPF) may undermine the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) by bypassing the AU. It notes that African nations are adopting a pragmatic approach to geopolitical tensions, seeking diverse security partnerships with countries like China, Russia, and the USA to fill funding gaps and reduce dependence on the EU.

The document explores the evolving relationship between Korea and Africa, focusing on how Korea's carbon-neutrality goals and technological expertise can support Africa's climate resilience. It identifies key areas for partnership, including renewable energy, green minerals for batteries, smart city development, and climate-resilient agriculture, while emphasizing the need for these initiatives to be African-led and aligned with the AU's strategic framework.

North Africa possesses significant solar and wind potential, with Egypt and Morocco emerging as the region's largest renewable energy markets. While Egypt's power sector is dominated by gas and Morocco's by coal, both are aggressively expanding their renewable capacities through policy shifts and international investment. Egypt has seen rapid solar growth, exemplified by the Benban solar farm, while Morocco has focused on onshore wind and concentrated solar power, aiming to become a global green hydrogen exporter by 2050.

The document examines how the war in Ukraine is facilitating a geopolitical realignment in Africa, where countries are increasingly wary of Western 'coercive diplomacy' and 'paternalism'. It posits that China is capitalizing on this by aligning its diplomatic rhetoric with African desires for non-alignment and multipolarity. The author suggests that China's control over supply chains and its 'Global Security Initiative' provide tangible alternatives to Western partnerships, potentially eroding Western influence on the continent.

The document examines how the Russia-Ukraine war has destabilized energy markets, undermining Russia's role as an 'energy superpower' and creating significant economic pressure on the Global South. It presents three scenarios: 'Stable high' prices, 'Persistent volatility', and 'Business as usual', analyzing how each affects national budgets, regional stability in the Middle East and Africa, and the global transition to renewable energy. The authors argue that while the crisis may incentivize some decarbonization, it also risks locking in fossil fuel production in the Global South and prioritizing immediate energy security over Paris Agreement goals.

The document analyzes the varied diplomatic positions of African nations regarding the Ukraine war, noting a split between those condemning Russia and those maintaining neutrality to preserve bilateral ties. It argues that African states should move from being passive bystanders to proactive actors by mediating peace, filling resource gaps created by sanctions, diversifying commodity imports, and strengthening pan-African unity.

The report analyzes Tunisia's health landscape, noting a transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as the primary cause of death. While life expectancy is projected to reach 79 years by 2040 and maternal mortality is declining, the country faces rising challenges from obesity, tobacco use, and road traffic accidents. The report warns that the mortality burden from injuries will surpass that of communicable diseases by 2025 and that the primary healthcare system remains ill-equipped to manage the increasing cost and complexity of NCDs.

The report projects a modest average GDP growth rate of 1.8% for Algeria between 2020 and 2040, which is deemed insufficient to improve livelihoods due to a state-led economic system and heavy dependence on hydrocarbons. It highlights that the country faces critical pressures from climate change, water scarcity, and poor agricultural yields, alongside political instability and regional security threats. The authors argue that Algeria must implement comprehensive social, economic, and governance reforms to diversify its economy and rebuild its social contract.

The report examines Tunisia's transition from a state-led development model under Habib Bourguiba and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to the post-revolution era. It highlights early successes in gender equality and education, contrasted with later systemic corruption, cronyism, and economic stagnation. Despite the 2010 revolution, the document notes that structural economic reforms remain unfulfilled, with GDP growth slowing from an average of 4.5% (2000-2010) to 2% (2010-2018), and political uncertainty persisting under President Kais Saied.

Russia has increased its presence in Africa through defense and security partnerships, positioning itself as an alternative to Western paternalism. However, the document argues that Russia lacks the financial capacity to compete with the U.S., EU, and China, as evidenced by its modest trade volume and the contrast with China's massive infrastructure investments. The war in Ukraine has further complicated this strategy by draining resources and increasing international sanctions.

Africa was instrumental in establishing the deep seabed mining regime under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea but became apathetic following the 1994 Implementation Agreement. Currently, Africa is the only regional group that has not sponsored an entity to explore the international seabed area (the Area). While the African Union and the UN Economic Commission for Africa have integrated DSM into blue economy strategies and roadmaps, implementation has lagged. The report argues that investing in DSM is strategically appropriate for Africa as the global transition to a low-carbon economy may impact terrestrial mining. It recommends that African states consider sponsoring exploration contracts and that the AU adopt the Lomé Annexes and revise its Integrated Maritime Strategy to provide a clear legal and policy framework for DSM.

The report contends that natural gas expansion in Africa contradicts the Paris Agreement and poses significant economic and environmental risks. It argues that renewable energy is more cost-effective and creates more sustainable employment than the fossil fuel industry. Through case studies of Egypt, Nigeria, and Senegal, the document demonstrates that shifting from gas-based power to high-renewable scenarios would increase job creation and, in the case of Egypt, significantly reduce premature deaths from air pollution. It concludes that developed nations must stop financing fossil fuels and increase climate finance to support Africa's transition to zero-emissions energy systems.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and conflict in Africa, asserting that climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' that exacerbates existing political, social, and economic tensions. It highlights that while some regions like the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin are particularly vulnerable, the path from climate impact to violence is indirect, often mediated by resource scarcity, forced migration, and institutional weakness. The report calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African nations to adopt evidence-based, community-informed adaptation strategies that are sensitive to local conflict dynamics to prevent future instability.

The document explores the complex, indirect link between climate change and violent conflict in Africa, emphasizing that while climate change is a 'risk multiplier', it does not cause conflict in a simple cause-and-effect manner. It highlights regional examples from North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Africa, noting that vulnerability is often tied to existing institutional weaknesses and social inequalities. The author calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African states to prioritize evidence-based, community-informed adaptation measures that account for local conflict dynamics.

The document argues that peace processes incorporating meaningful participation from women and grassroots initiatives are more likely to be durable. It highlights the systemic bias toward elite and armed group inclusion, which often sidelines marginalized groups. Through four case studies, it demonstrates varying levels of success: Colombia's use of testimonies and peace communities, Liberia's non-violent mass action and strategic use of gender stereotypes, Libya's reliance on Track III community-level mediation due to structural exclusion from formal talks, and the Philippines' high level of female leadership in formal panels and strategic links between diplomatic tracks. The briefing concludes that pre-existing strong women's movements, early involvement across all tracks, community-level legitimacy, and women in leadership positions are key factors for successful grassroots inclusion.

Russia is employing a strategy of 'hedging its bets' in Libya, maintaining relations with the UN-recognised Government of National Unity while simultaneously supporting Khalifa Haftar via private military contractors and backing Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. By supporting the postponement of elections and denying links to the Wagner Group, Moscow aims to erode Western influence, maintain a Mediterranean naval presence, and ensure a permanent military foothold regardless of the political outcome.

The briefing outlines critical areas of focus for Africa in 2022, including democratic transitions in eighteen countries, the management of military coups in states like Mali and Sudan, and the fight against terrorism in regions such as the Lake Chad Basin. It highlights Africa's priorities for COP27, specifically the need for climate finance, technology transfer, and a just transition that supports industrialisation. Additionally, it examines the evolution of China-Africa relations following the FOCAC Ministerial Meeting and the potential impact of China's debt on Kenya's elections.