The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report examines Tunisia's transition from a state-led development model under Habib Bourguiba and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to the post-revolution era. It highlights early successes in gender equality and education, contrasted with later systemic corruption, cronyism, and economic stagnation. Despite the 2010 revolution, the document notes that structural economic reforms remain unfulfilled, with GDP growth slowing from an average of 4.5% (2000-2010) to 2% (2010-2018), and political uncertainty persisting under President Kais Saied.

• Following independence in 1956, Tunisia implemented progressive social policies, including the Code of personal status which granted women full legal status and outlawed polygamy, and the introduction of free education in 1958. By 1990, legislation ensured free compulsory basic education for children aged 6–16, resulting in literacy and enrolment rates typical of upper-middle-income countries.
• Under Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, an expansive state-led development model fostered cronyism and corruption. While GDP per capita grew by an average of 3% per year between 1960 and 2010, the economy was dominated by Ben Ali's inner circle across sectors including oil, manufacturing, tourism, and banking, which stifled competition and forced many citizens into the informal sector.
• Since the 2010 Freedom and Dignity Revolution, Tunisia has experienced economic decline and political instability. Average GDP growth fell from nearly 4.5% between 2000 and 2010 to 2% between 2010 and 2018. The country faces challenges including a deteriorating education system, ineffective efforts to reduce public sector size and subsidies, and insecurity stemming from borders with Algeria and Libya.
• The document argues that political changes, such as the election of President Kais Saied in October 2019, will not improve opportunities for Tunisians without deep structural economic reforms.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=03-from-independence-to-freedom

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=03-from-independence-to-freedom.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=03-from-independence-to-freedom |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=03-from-independence-to-freedom}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }