Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Algeria's socio-economic and political challenges leading up to 2040. It highlights a projected modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% between 2020 and 2040, which the authors argue is insufficient to improve livelihoods given the country's dependence on hydrocarbons, high unemployment, and a state-led economic system. The document emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive structural reforms to address governance issues, climate change impacts on agriculture, and regional security threats.

• Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the report projects that Algeria will experience a modest average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 1.8% from 2020 to 2040. This rate is considered insufficient to improve the livelihoods and incomes of most citizens due to factors including high unemployment, a generous but ineffective subsidy system, a state-led economic system, and a dependence on hydrocarbons.
• Algeria's government revenues and state budget have been severely impacted, with the budget being cut by approximately 50% due to the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and a plunge in oil prices. Consequently, the World Bank has reclassified Algeria from an upper-middle-income country to a lower-middle-income country.
• The country faces significant environmental and resource pressures, specifically limited water resources and the effects of climate change. These factors are expected to increase the country's reliance on imported food and worsen agricultural yields.
• Algeria continues to face regional terrorist threats originating from Mali, Niger, Libya, and Tunisia. The army and security apparatus remain on high alert to manage these threats.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }