Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

The report projects a modest average GDP growth rate of 1.8% for Algeria between 2020 and 2040, which is deemed insufficient to improve livelihoods due to a state-led economic system and heavy dependence on hydrocarbons. It highlights that the country faces critical pressures from climate change, water scarcity, and poor agricultural yields, alongside political instability and regional security threats. The authors argue that Algeria must implement comprehensive social, economic, and governance reforms to diversify its economy and rebuild its social contract.

• Algeria is projected to experience a modest average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 1.8% from 2020 to 2040, a rate considered insufficient to improve the livelihoods of most citizens due to the country's state-led economic system, reliance on hydrocarbons, and high unemployment.
• The Algerian government has faced a significant financial crisis where oil price drops and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the state budget by approximately 50%.
• Climate change and limited natural resources, specifically water, are expected to negatively impact agricultural yields and increase the country's reliance on imported food.
• The World Bank has downgraded Algeria's economic classification from an upper-middle-income country to a lower-middle-income country.
• Algeria continues to face security threats from terrorism originating in Tunisia, Libya, Niger, and Mali, requiring the army to remain on high alert.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }