The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report analyzes Tunisia's health landscape, noting a transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as the primary cause of death. While life expectancy is projected to reach 79 years by 2040 and maternal mortality is declining, the country faces rising challenges from obesity, tobacco use, and road traffic accidents. The report warns that the mortality burden from injuries will surpass that of communicable diseases by 2025 and that the primary healthcare system remains ill-equipped to manage the increasing cost and complexity of NCDs.

• Tunisia experienced an epidemiological transition in the late 1960s and early 1970s, resulting in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) replacing communicable diseases as the primary cause of death.
• Life expectancy in Tunisia was approximately 76 years in 2019 and is expected to reach nearly 79 years by 2040, which is almost three years higher than the global average.
• Despite improvements in infant mortality—projected to drop to six deaths per 1,000 live births by 2040—Tunisia is not expected to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of eliminating preventable newborn and child deaths by 2030.
• Obesity is a significant health issue, with 2016 survey data showing that 64.5% of Tunisians are overweight, and 30% are considered obese.
• The Tunisian primary healthcare system is currently unable to implement a comprehensive approach to NCDs, and awareness of prevention measures remains low.
• Road traffic deaths are high; in 2015, the World Health Organization ranked Tunisia as having the second-worst traffic death rate per capita in North Africa, following Libya.
• The mortality burden from injuries is projected to exceed that of communicable diseases by 2025, while NCD mortality is expected to increase sharply.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }