The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This report section analyzes the health landscape of Tunisia, detailing its transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), current health metrics, and projected mortality trends through 2040.

• Tunisia completed its epidemiological transition between the late 1960s and early 1970s, with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) replacing communicable diseases as the primary cause of death. Cardiovascular-related deaths and cancer are the leading NCD causes of mortality, but the primary healthcare system remains ill-equipped to manage a comprehensive approach to these diseases, and public awareness of prevention is low.
• Life expectancy in Tunisia was approximately 76 years in 2019 and is projected to reach nearly 79 years by 2040, which is almost three years higher than the global average. Maternal mortality is estimated at 55 deaths per 100,000 live births and is projected to drop to 15 by 2040. Infant mortality is 10 deaths per 1,000 live births, projected to be 8 by 2030 and 6 by 2040, though the country is not expected to meet the SDG goal of eliminating preventable newborn and child deaths by 2030.
• Obesity is a significant health issue in Tunisia; a 2016 survey found that 64.5% of the population is overweight (with 72.4% of those being women) and 30% are obese. While hunger was ranked as 'low' by the World Hunger Index in 2019, lifestyle and nutrition changes linked to urbanization and economic development have increased NCDs.
• Road traffic accidents and tobacco use present significant mortality risks. In 2015, the WHO reported Tunisia had the second-worst traffic death rate per capita in North Africa, after Libya, although the National Observatory for Road Safety noted a nearly 16% decline in accidents in 2018. Tobacco smoking is increasing among both genders, particularly among youth due to a lack of legislation.
• Future health projections indicate that mortality from NCDs will increase sharply and deaths from injuries will rise, with the mortality burden from injuries expected to surpass that of communicable diseases by 2025. Because NCDs are more expensive to treat and diagnose, Tunisia will need to expand its health framework and amenities.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=09-health}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }