Search Climate Insights Directory

Africa's freshwater ecosystems host at least 3,281 fish species, most of which are endemic, supporting millions of people through fisheries and providing critical ecosystem services. However, approximately 26% of these species are threatened with extinction due to damming, pollution, over-abstraction of water, invasive species, and climate change. The report highlights the critical role of the African Great Lakes and major river basins, the economic potential of the aquarium and recreational angling trades, and the urgent need for integrated management through initiatives like the Freshwater Challenge and the use of eDNA monitoring.

AquaMnara provides Kenyan aquaculture farmers with technical training, linkages to certified suppliers, and an e-voucher credit system to overcome financing gaps and environmental challenges. The initiative supports sustainable productivity, specifically targeting women through the provision of aquaculture cages and training, and has enabled individual farmers to expand operations and adopt solar-powered infrastructure.

A partnership between Phaesun GmbH and WeHub Victoria Limited (WeTu) deployed two solar-powered 'SelfChill' cold rooms in Kenya to reduce post-harvest losses for small farmers. The first unit in Mbita, operational since January 2024, saw monthly occupancy growth of 7% to 14%, eventually reaching 85% occupancy on several days by the ninth month. The project observed a shift in user behavior from storing small quantities of unsold produce to traders buying larger volumes (6 to 12 crates) for daily sale, leading the team to target wholesalers for the second unit in Homabay.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change, with adverse events causing annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2020. While some crop yields may increase due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevations, the livestock sector faces significant risks from heat stress and drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands. The report highlights critical vulnerabilities in hydropower, tourism, and coastal infrastructure, while noting that the government is a regional leader in policy but struggles with financing and subnational coordination. Recommendations focus on granular climate scenario analysis, diversifying agriculture, improving agricultural insurance, and mobilizing large-scale funding through ARIPs.

The document defines 'biotic eruptions' as population or biomass explosions of species driven by human alterations to the environment or the introduction/removal of species. These eruptions can lead to irreversible state shifts in ecosystems, such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) or Arctic greening, which disrupt food security and economic stability. The author argues that these ecological disruptions can cascade into social instability and conflict, particularly in regions with weak governance. Case studies on Lake Victoria and China illustrate how biodiversity loss and invasive species like the fall armyworm exacerbate vulnerabilities. The briefing recommends restoring keystone species, reducing nutrient pollution, and diversifying food systems to enhance security resilience.

ENGIE Equatorial piloted 15 electric outboards powered by Li-ion batteries for fishing on Lake Victoria, Uganda. The project demonstrated that while equipment costs are high, economic viability is possible, with fishermen seeing operation cost reductions of 20-60% and gasoline savings of 1,628 to 2,750 litres per boat annually. Technical challenges included equipment damage from heavy use and difficulties with battery-swapping logistics, leading to recommendations for more robust hardware and battery modules weighing no more than 30 kg.

The 'Clean Cities for Clean Lake Victoria' project aims to mitigate climate change impacts in Uganda by reducing industrial and municipal emissions and restoring riparian ecosystems. With a requested grant of USD 10 million, the project targets a mitigation impact of 700,000 tCO2eq and intends to benefit 35,000 people. Key interventions include promoting cleaner production technologies in industries, restoring 400 hectares of wetlands and forests, and establishing national and regional water quality laboratories to support NDC reporting. The project focuses on the northern catchment of Lake Victoria, specifically targeting Kampala, Jinja, Entebbe, Busia, and Kyotera.

The PV Cool Kenya project, a collaboration between Phaesun, Solar Cooling Engineering, and Strathmore University, installed three solar-powered cooling systems based on the SelfChill concept in Kenya. These systems include a 500-litre milk cooling tank in Bungoma, an ice maker for fishermen on Lake Victoria, and a cold room for fruit and herbs in Thika. The project aimed to increase productivity and income for smallholder farmers who lack grid electricity. Despite delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the project concluded in June 2022 and included technical training at Strathmore University’s Solar Center.

The report finds that 15.3% of global agricultural production, approximately 1.2 billion tonnes, is lost at the farm stage, with an estimated economic value of $370 billion. It challenges the assumption that losses are primarily a low-income country issue, noting that higher- and middle-income countries are responsible for 58% of global harvest losses. Environmental impacts are significant, including 2.2 gigatonnes of CO2 eq. emissions, 760 km3 of freshwater withdrawals, and 4.4 million km2 of land use, with meat and animal products having a disproportionately high impact. The report identifies a complex web of direct drivers (biological, agronomic, and technological) and indirect drivers (market structure, governance, and human factors) and argues for synchronized, holistic interventions rather than isolated technical fixes.

The report evaluates the hydrological impact of climate change on the Lake Bunyonyi catchment within the Ruhezamyenda catchment in southwestern Uganda. Using the COSERO hydrological model and CMIP5 global climate model ensembles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the study projects increases in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration for the mid-term (20412070) and far future (20712100). While runoff trends show significant uncertainty, there is a general trend toward increasing runoff, particularly in the far future under RCP8.5. The report identifies 'no-regrets' adaptation options focusing on governance, land management, and data collection to address risks such as soil erosion, landslides, and wetland degradation.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

The Simiyu Climate Resilience Project is a proposed adaptation initiative in Tanzania's Simiyu Region. It seeks 102.7 million EUR in grant funding from the GCF, with a total investment of 143.4 million EUR, to address water scarcity and food insecurity caused by climate change. The project focuses on constructing a bulk water supply system from Lake Victoria, improving sanitation, and implementing climate-smart agriculture for approximately 495,000 beneficiaries.

The document reviews Tanzania's climate risks, highlighting a high vulnerability due to reliance on climate-dependent livelihoods and poverty. It evaluates the government's progress in establishing institutional structures and strategies, such as the National Climate Change Strategy (2012), while noting gaps in sectoral policy integration and the need for more targeted funding for priority sectors like forestry and infrastructure.

The document provides a comprehensive review of Kenya's climate adaptation landscape, highlighting the high vulnerability of its arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) and the dependence of its economy on rain-fed agriculture. It details the national policy framework, including the National Climate Change Response Strategy and Action Plan, and evaluates the role of the 2010 constitution in devolving adaptation responsibilities to 47 counties. The report identifies a strong focus on agriculture and livestock in international adaptation projects but notes significant gaps in addressing the needs of the tourism sector, coastal zones, and urban areas.

The report estimates that the cost of inaction regarding climate change in Uganda's agriculture, water, energy, and infrastructure sectors will range between US$273 billion and US$437 billion from 2010 to 2050. These costs are estimated to be 24-46 times greater than the proposed adaptation budget. The study identifies water and energy as the sectors with the highest costs of inaction, while infrastructure is expected to require the most adaptation investment in the long term. Key recommendations include prioritizing the government's Costed Implementation Strategy and mainstreaming climate adaptation into national and district development plans.

The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.

The report uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool to project that Uganda's total water demand will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. Under a 'business as usual' scenario, total unmet demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y. The estimated economic cost of these shortages in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), though this could be ten times higher if income elasticity is considered. The most significant losses are anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds. The report also highlights the impact of extreme events, noting that droughts in 2005-06 and 2010-11 caused losses of US$250 million and US$1,174 million, respectively. Proposed adaptation measures, including water harvesting, increased supply for production, and Integrated Water Resources Management, are found to be economically viable, with some generating a 10% rate of return even with minimal reductions in damage.

The report evaluates SAICM's impact in Tanzania, finding that while it has improved political awareness, legislative frameworks, and safety in large-scale mining, significant risks persist in the informal sector and agriculture. Key gaps include a lack of hazardous waste destruction facilities and inadequate coordination between government sectors.

The document examines the Vegetable Oil Development project (VODP) in Uganda, a partnership involving the Government of Uganda, IFAD, Wilmar International, and Bidco. It reports that the project has led to the displacement of local communities, the destruction of approximately 3,600 hectares of forest, and increased food insecurity. The report highlights violations of national land and environmental laws, the lack of required Environmental Impact Assessments, and the fact that production targets far exceed domestic needs, suggesting a focus on exports over local food security.

The report examines the vulnerability of crop production in Uganda's Rakai and Kapchorwa districts, finding that increasing climate variability—specifically more frequent droughts and intense floods—threatens food security and livelihoods. While crop modelling suggests limited long-term yield declines for maize and beans by 2050, current climate hazards already disrupt farming calendars and reduce coffee quality. The study highlights that high poverty, land tenure issues, and HIV/AIDS exacerbate vulnerability, often leading to maladaptive coping strategies like wetland encroachment. It recommends a holistic approach combining small-scale irrigation, conservation agriculture, stress-resistant crop varieties, and improved meteorological information systems, supported by stronger national governance and coordination.