Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.

• Between 1979 and 2005, average near-surface temperatures in Kampala increased by approximately 1ºC, while annual rainfall did not show significant change between 1951 and 2005.
• Climate projections for 2095 predict near-surface temperature increases of approximately 1.5ºC under RCP 4.5 and 3ºC under RCP 8.5, with a slight decrease in annual rainfall of about 20mm for both scenarios.
• Flooding is the most severe climate impact in Kampala, causing deaths, destruction of buildings, disruption of transport and energy networks, and health problems through waterborne disease outbreaks.
• Urban vulnerability to flooding is driven by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and low-lying valleys, the clearing of vegetation on hills which increases runoff, and inadequate or poorly maintained drainage infrastructure.
• The urban poor, particularly the approximately 60% of the population living in informal settlements, are the most affected by climate change due to higher exposure and lower recovery capacity.
• Under a business-as-usual scenario where flood frequency and intensity remain constant, annual damages in Kampala could increase from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050.
• If the frequency of extreme flooding events doubles by 2050, annual damages are projected to range from US$66.5 million to US$203.3 million by 2050.
• The total cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads from 2015 to 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion under RCP 4.5 and US$3.7 billion under RCP 8.5.
• Adaptation costs are heavily concentrated in the building sector (99.8% of total), with residential buildings accounting for approximately 72% of all costs, meaning the financial burden falls primarily on the private sector.
• A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments (Nakivubo, Kinawataka, Lubigi, and Nalukolongo) showed mixed results, with only two projects demonstrating a positive net present value (NPV) depending on the climate scenario.

APA

Garcia, J., & Markandya, A. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf

Chicago

Garcia, Jon, and Anil Markandya. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Garcia |first1=Jon |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=October 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{garcia2015economic, author = {Garcia, Jon and Markandya, Anil}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }