Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This case study provides an economic assessment of climate change impacts in Kampala, Uganda, combining qualitative analysis with quantitative modelling of climate projections. It evaluates the costs of flood-related damages and the investment required to climate-proof urban infrastructure, while conducting cost-benefit analyses on specific drainage improvement projects.

• Climate projections for Kampala indicate that near-surface temperatures are expected to increase by approximately 1.5°C under the RCP 4.5 scenario and by approximately 3°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2095. Annual rainfall is projected to decrease slightly by approximately 20mm over a 12-month running mean under both scenarios.
• Flooding is identified as the most significant climate change impact in Kampala, causing deaths, destruction of buildings, and disruption of transport and energy infrastructure. These impacts are exacerbated by the location of human settlements in low-lying valleys and wetlands, with approximately 60% of the population living in informal settlements that are particularly vulnerable.
• In a 'business as usual' scenario where the intensity and frequency of extreme events do not change, annual flood damages in Kampala are projected to rise from between US$1.3 million and US$7.3 million in 2013 to between US$33.2 million and US$101.7 million by 2050. If the frequency of extreme events doubles by 2050, annual damages could reach between US$66.5 million and US$203.3 million.
• The total cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads in Kampala between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at approximately US$3.2 billion under the RCP 4.5 scenario and US$3.7 billion under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Residential buildings account for the largest share of these costs, approximately 72% of the total.
• A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvement projects in four of the city's eight catchments showed mixed results. Only two of the four projects demonstrated a positive net present value (NPV), depending on the climate scenario used.
• Droughts and receding water levels in Lake Victoria have historically impacted Kampala's water supply and energy generation. A significant drought in 2006/2007 forced the National Water and Sewerage Corporation to spend approximately 6.5 million euros to extend abstraction pipelines further into the lake.
• Urban vulnerability in Kampala is driven by the clearing of hilltops, which increases runoff, and the encroachment of settlements into wetlands, which reduces the ecosystem's capacity to store surface water. Additionally, the city suffers from insufficient and poorly maintained drainage infrastructure, with some channels reduced from two metres to 30 centimetres in depth due to sediment and rubbish.
• The study recommends revising the Kampala Physical Development Plan (2012) and building codes to align with climate projections. It also emphasizes the need to strengthen the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) to protect wetlands and to integrate adaptation strategies into the city's Low Carbon Development and Climate Resilient (LCDCR) Strategy.

APA

Garcia, J., & Markandya, A. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf

Chicago

Garcia, Jon, and Anil Markandya. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Garcia |first1=Jon |last2=Markandya |first2=Anil |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=October 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{garcia2015economic, author = {Garcia, Jon and Markandya, Anil}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Kampala_Case-study2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }