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Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda
The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.
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Document type: Case study