Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This report provides an economic assessment of climate change impacts in Uganda, analyzing five national sectors and five local case studies. It estimates that the cost of inaction between 2010 and 2050 ranges from US$273 billion to US$437 billion, primarily affecting the water and energy sectors. The study argues that while adaptation costs are high, they are significantly lower than the potential damages, and that economic growth is essential to provide the resources necessary for resilience.

• The total estimated cost of inaction across the agriculture, water, infrastructure, and energy sectors between 2010 and 2050 is between US$273 billion and US$437 billion.
• Annual costs of inaction by 2025 are projected to be between US$3.162 billion and US$5.855 billion, which is approximately 24 to 46 times the estimated annual adaptation budget of US$81 million.
• Water and energy are the most heavily impacted sectors; under lower-bound estimates, energy accounts for 45% and water for 44% of the costs of inaction.
• Climate change is projected to cause significant losses in agricultural exports, with coffee yield losses potentially reaching 50-75% by 2050.
• Water demand is expected to rise from 408 million cubic meters per year in 2010 to 3,963 million cubic meters per year by 2050, with unmet demand potentially costing US$5.5 billion by 2050.
• The energy sector faces a significant biomass deficit, with unmet demand costing US$123.6 billion between 2010 and 2050, a figure that could rise to US$136 billion due to climate change.
• Infrastructure damages from extreme events are projected to rise from US$20-130 million annually to US$234-809 million by 2050, assuming no change in frequency; if frequency doubles every 25 years, damages could reach US$938-3,236 million by 2050.
• In Kampala, annual flood damages are estimated to rise from US$3.7-17.6 million by 2025 to US$33.2-101.7 million by 2050, with costs of climate-proofing infrastructure estimated at US$3.3-3.7 billion between 2015 and 2050.
• In the Karamoja region, future extreme events are projected to cause crop production losses between 9% and 32% by 2050.
• In the Mount Elgon region, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for coffee cultivation under 'Business as Usual' is expected to drop from 16% under current variability to 5% by 2045, whereas 'Climate Smart Agriculture' would maintain a higher IRR of 22%.
• The cost of malaria in Tororo is projected to rise from US$8.7-221 million in 2010 to US$20.1-560.5 million by 2050, while in Kabale it may rise from US$0.7-15.8 million to US$1.55-41.7 million.
• Total adaptation spending for the period 2015-2030 is estimated at US$1.646 billion, with the highest undiscounted costs allocated to infrastructure (43%), energy (28%), agriculture (18%), and water (12%).
• The report recommends prioritizing the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) Costed Implementation Strategy and mainstreaming climate change into sector development plans and District Development Plans under the National Development Plan II.

APA

Markandya, A., Cabot-Venton, C., & Beucher, O. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Courtenay Cabot-Venton, and Olivier Beucher. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=Cabot-Venton |first2=Courtenay |last3=Beucher |first3=Olivier |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=November 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2015economic, author = {Markandya, Anil and Cabot-Venton, Courtenay and Beucher, Olivier}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }