Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The report estimates that the cost of inaction regarding climate change in Uganda's agriculture, water, energy, and infrastructure sectors will range between US$273 billion and US$437 billion from 2010 to 2050. These costs are estimated to be 24-46 times greater than the proposed adaptation budget. The study identifies water and energy as the sectors with the highest costs of inaction, while infrastructure is expected to require the most adaptation investment in the long term. Key recommendations include prioritizing the government's Costed Implementation Strategy and mainstreaming climate adaptation into national and district development plans.

• The total cost of inaction for the agriculture, water, energy, and infrastructure sectors between 2010 and 2050 is estimated to be between US$273 billion and US$437 billion.
• Annual costs of inaction are projected to be between US$3.16 billion and US$5.86 billion by 2025, which is 24-46 times higher than the estimated annual adaptation budget of approximately US$81 million for the same period.
• Climate change is projected to cause significant yield losses for key export crops by 2050, with coffee potentially seeing reductions of 50-75%.
• The water sector faces massive unmet demand, projected to rise from 3.7 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 1,651 MCM/y by 2050 if no additional investments are made.
• The energy sector is dominated by a fragile biomass supply; without action, a deficit of 1,710 million tonnes of biomass is predicted between 2010 and 2050, costing US$123.6 billion.
• Infrastructure damages from extreme events are expected to rise from US$20-130 million annually to US$234-809 million by 2050, assuming no change in frequency; if frequency doubles every 25 years, damages could reach US$938-3,236 million by 2050.
• Adaptation costs for the period 2015-2030 are estimated at US$1.65 billion, with infrastructure being the highest overall component at 43% of undiscounted costs.
• In the Mount Elgon region, adopting Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) for Arabica coffee could increase the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) from 5% (under BAU with climate change in 2030-2045) to 22%.
• Climate change is expected to increase the economic cost of malaria in Tororo from US$8.7-221 million in 2010 to US$20.1-560.5 million by 2050.
• The report recommends that the Government of Uganda prioritize the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) Costed Implementation Strategy and mainstream adaptation into the National Development Plan II (NDPII) and District Development Plans.

APA

Markandya, A., Cabot-Venton, C., & Beucher, O. (2015). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Courtenay Cabot-Venton, and Olivier Beucher. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=Cabot-Venton |first2=Courtenay |last3=Beucher |first3=Olivier |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=November 2015 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2015economic, author = {Markandya, Anil and Cabot-Venton, Courtenay and Beucher, Olivier}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Uganda_CC-economics_Final-Report2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }