The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions

The document defines 'biotic eruptions' as population or biomass explosions of species driven by human alterations to the environment or the introduction/removal of species. These eruptions can lead to irreversible state shifts in ecosystems, such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) or Arctic greening, which disrupt food security and economic stability. The author argues that these ecological disruptions can cascade into social instability and conflict, particularly in regions with weak governance. Case studies on Lake Victoria and China illustrate how biodiversity loss and invasive species like the fall armyworm exacerbate vulnerabilities. The briefing recommends restoring keystone species, reducing nutrient pollution, and diversifying food systems to enhance security resilience.

• Biotic eruptions are categorized into two types: those resulting from human modifications to the physical and chemical environment (such as climate change and nutrient additions) and those caused by the direct introduction or removal of species.
• Human-driven changes to the abiotic environment can lead to significant biotic eruptions, such as algal blooms in aquatic systems and 'Arctic greening' in the far north, where shrubs and other plants gain biomass due to warming.
• The removal of keystone species can cause cascading ecosystem failures; for example, the removal of wolves in North America led to increased herbivore populations that undermined stream health in the West and forest regeneration in the East.
• Biotic eruptions can create socio-ecological tipping points where a system transforms into a new stable state that is difficult to reverse, potentially leading to economic instability and conflict over resources.
• Lake Victoria has suffered from three interacting biotic eruptions: the introduction of the invasive Nile perch, eutrophication leading to algal blooms, and the invasion of water hyacinth, which collectively reduced biodiversity and increased the region's vulnerability to food and economic insecurity.
• China's food security is threatened by biotic eruptions, including a quadrupling of crop pest and disease incidence between 1970 and 2016, and the 2019 arrival of the fall armyworm, which impacted 1.07 million hectares of land in 2020.

APA

Zarfos, M. R. (2023). The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/52-HumanDrivenBioticEruptions.pdf

Chicago

Zarfos, Michael R. The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/52-HumanDrivenBioticEruptions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zarfos |first1=Michael R. |title=The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=6 July 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/52-HumanDrivenBioticEruptions.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zarfos2023security, author = {Zarfos, Michael R.}, title = {{The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/52-HumanDrivenBioticEruptions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }