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Condemn, condone, converge: German extremist and conspiracist responses to the Israel-Gaza crisis
The document analyzes how various extremist groups in Germany—including far-right, far-left, Islamist, and QAnon-affiliated actors—exploited the Israel-Gaza crisis to spread disinformation, promote hate speech, and polarize political debate. While these groups differ in their targets, they converge in their distrust of the German government's response. Key activities include the AfD's internal struggle to unify its position, Samidoun's celebration of Hamas violence in Berlin, and the spread of 'deep state' and 'third World War' conspiracy theories by QAnon-affiliated channels.
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Document type: Briefing
Tracking national ambition towards a global tripling of renewables
The report finds that while current national targets collectively aim for a doubling of renewable capacity by 2030, they often underestimate the actual pace of deployment. A global tripling to 11,000 GW is considered achievable if governments update targets to reflect recent growth and maintain a 17% annual increase in additions. The analysis identifies specific countries with high potential to increase ambition, such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE, while noting that others like India and Saudi Arabia already have targets that aim for a tripling of their 2022 capacity.
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Document type: Report
EU-Iran: A Crucial Dialogue
The EU-Iran relationship has deteriorated following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and recent regional conflicts. Iran has responded by breaching nuclear limits and forging strategic alliances with Russia and China, including joining the SCO and BRICS. The author suggests the EU shift toward incentives and new areas of collaboration, such as climate cooperation and the Paris Agreement, to maintain influence and prevent a regional nuclear arms race.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Debt Market Summary Q3 2023
The global aligned GSS+ debt market reached a cumulative volume of USD 4.2 trillion by the end of Q3 2023, though year-to-date volumes declined by 10% compared to 2022. Green bonds remain the dominant theme, surpassing a cumulative USD 2.5 trillion milestone. In the Middle East and Africa (MEA), the market grew by 158% in 2023, driven largely by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with a strong preference for green instruments and a recent increase in public sector issuance.
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Document type: Report
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in a Changing World
The document analyzes the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), highlighting a significant misalignment between its aggressive production expansion plans and the 1.5°C global warming limit. It details how ADNOC is increasingly relying on international equity, bonds, and bank financing, thereby exposing global investors to transition and litigation risks. The brief maps these financial connections across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations and recommends that investors and banks push for greater transparency and a cessation of new fossil fuel infrastructure to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Policy brief
The EU needs to address its inconsistent Middle East foreign policy
The author contends that the EU's response to the Israel-Palestine crisis and other regional issues is hampered by internal divisions and the lack of a comprehensive Middle East strategy. The text highlights how the unanimity rule allows single member states to block collective action, such as ceasefire calls or opposition to US-led peace plans. It suggests that as US influence in the region wanes, the EU has an opportunity to establish an independent role, potentially through 'green diplomacy', provided it can overcome its internal fragmentation and move toward qualified majority voting.
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Document type: Statement
GreenLatinos angustiados por la violencia en Medio Oriente lamentan a las familias atrapadas en fuego cruzado
GreenLatinos, through its CEO Mark Magaña, calls for the United States to support bilateral peace efforts in the Gaza-Israel conflict, ensure Israel's response adheres to international law, and facilitate the restoration of vital supplies and humanitarian corridors for civilians in Gaza.
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Document type: Statement
Déclaration sur Gaza et Israël
Friends of the Earth International condemns the killing of innocents and hostage-taking in the conflict between Israel and Gaza, describing the current military response in Gaza as a "crime de guerre". The organization advocates for the self-determination of the Palestinian people, the end of the military occupation of territories seized in 1967, and the implementation of a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders. It specifically highlights the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where populations are cut off from electricity, water, and fuel, and calls for the international community to pressure Israel to comply with UN Security Council resolutions.
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Document type: Statement
Statement on the attacks in Israel from Sherri Goodman and Christine Parthemore
The Council on Strategic Risks condemns the atrocities committed by Hamas against civilians in Israel, echoes the support of world leaders for the Israeli people, and notes the rising trend of global antisemitism.
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Document type: Statement
Legal Protection for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Matters for Nuclear Installations Everywhere
The document examines the precarious situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine, highlighting risks such as loss of offsite power and cooling water. It analyzes the existing legal protections provided by customary international law, the Geneva Conventions, and the Pelindaba Treaty, arguing that while legal norms exist, they are often undermined by political considerations and a lack of enforcement. The author concludes that strengthening existing frameworks and accountability is more critical than creating new conventions.
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Document type: Policy brief
Looming environmental catastrophe highlights urgency of lifting illegal blockade of the Gaza Strip
The document argues that Israel's 16-year blockade of the Gaza Strip has created an uninhabitable environment and a severe humanitarian crisis, characterized by extreme poverty, food insecurity, and a lack of basic utilities. It demands an immediate end to the blockade and collective punishment of the population.
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Document type: Statement
La inminente catástrofe ambiental reafirma la urgencia de levantar el bloqueo ilegítimo de la Franja de Gaza
The document denounces the blockade of the Gaza Strip as a form of collective punishment and a violation of international humanitarian law. It highlights the resulting environmental and social collapse, including critical shortages of water and electricity, high poverty and unemployment rates, and the destruction of agricultural and fishing resources. The statement calls on Israel to end military operations and the blockade, and urges the international community to hold Israel accountable to its obligations under international law.
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Document type: Statement
A question of influence?
The report identifies a growing, commercially driven marketplace for 'influence as a service' in Kenya, where digital entrepreneurs monetise their networks to amplify political narratives. While techniques mirror global trends, the operations were predominantly indigenous. The study highlights the use of bots, astroturfing, and conspiratorial narratives—such as the 'deep state'—to undermine democratic institutions and legacy media. It warns that the integration of artificial intelligence could accelerate disinformation, creating an 'automated disinformation arms race' that threatens fragile democracies across Africa.
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Document type: Case study
China’s Diversifying Interests in the Middle East
China's engagement in the Middle East is fundamentally driven by the need for energy security, as it imports approximately half of its crude oil from the region. To mitigate vulnerabilities, Beijing utilizes the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in infrastructure and digital technology, while balancing diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China has recently acted as a mediator in the Saudi-Iran relationship and is expanding its arms trade, offering alternatives to US weapons. Following the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, China has shifted its approach to favor Palestine and Arab states, viewing its ties with Israel as increasingly expendable to better align with the Global South.
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Document type: Policy brief
L’ÉTAT DES CENTRALES À CHARBON DU MONDE
The report finds that while the 'return of coal' did not materialize globally in 2022, the pace of retirements remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. China is a major outlier, with its coal capacity in development increasing by 38% in 2022, while capacities in the rest of the world decreased by 20%. In the EU and UK, coal use saw a marginal 1% increase due to the gas crisis, but long-term trends remain downward. In Sub-Saharan Africa, coal projects persist despite funding shortages, though some successful just transition initiatives, such as the Komati plant retirement in South Africa, provide a potential model for the region.
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Document type: Report
Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022
The Middle East experienced a significant decline in battle-related deaths in 2022, primarily due to de-escalation in Syria and Yemen. While state-based conflicts remain the deadliest and most common, non-state conflicts proliferated in the 2010s before declining. One-sided violence increased in Iran in 2022 following protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.
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Document type: Policy brief
INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN CANNABIS INDUSTRY: ASSESSING THE CHALLENGES
The report examines the South African cannabis industry, arguing that current legal and regulatory frameworks create high barriers to entry that exclude traditional growers and small enterprises. It identifies critical bottlenecks in medical cannabis exports, such as the lack of mutual recognition for SAHPRA licenses in European markets, and a lack of processing capacity for industrial hemp. The authors advocate for a tiered licensing system, the legalisation of a regulated adult-use market to support inclusive growth, and the establishment of a specialised state agency to coordinate the sector's development and ensure decent work and environmental sustainability.
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Document type: Report
Israel and the Abraham Accords: A Failed Expansion
The document argues that Israel's ambition to expand the Abraham Accords, particularly to Saudi Arabia, has been thwarted by a combination of far-right domestic policies and Saudi Arabia's strategic pivot toward normalization with Iran, Syria, and Hamas. While existing agreements with states like the UAE remain economically robust, the brief notes that the current Israeli government's actions in the West Bank and its judicial reforms have strained relations with the US and Jordan, while removing the primary incentive for Saudi engagement.
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Document type: Policy brief
Turkish Drones as a Foreign Policy Tool
Turkey has rapidly become a global exporter of military drones, specifically the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı models, using this technology to enhance its soft power and establish new geopolitical alliances. This shift is part of a broader quest for 'strategic autonomy'—the ability to make defense decisions independently—driven by past arms sanctions from the US and technical failures with Israeli technology. While the drone sector has provided a significant economic boost, with defense and aerospace exports exceeding $4 billion in 2022, the brief highlights critical concerns regarding the lack of parliamentary oversight, centralized decision-making in the President's office, and alleged human rights violations by end-users in conflict zones like Ethiopia and Libya.
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Document type: Policy brief
International Public Opinion on Climate Change
The report finds that low-cost, repeated behaviors like reducing food waste are significantly more common than high-cost, one-time installations like heat pumps or solar panels. While many who adopted these behaviors faced minimal difficulty, non-adopters cited lack of awareness and lack of interest for low-cost actions, and high cost and home ownership issues for high-cost technologies.
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Document type: Report