Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022

The Middle East experienced a significant decline in battle-related deaths in 2022, primarily due to de-escalation in Syria and Yemen. While state-based conflicts remain the deadliest and most common, non-state conflicts proliferated in the 2010s before declining. One-sided violence increased in Iran in 2022 following protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.

• Battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts in the Middle East dropped from over 26,000 in 2021 to approximately 5,000 in 2022, marking the lowest level since 2011.
• The conflict in Yemen saw a major de-escalation in 2022 following a UN-mediated ceasefire in April, with deaths falling to fewer than 3,000 from a peak of over 23,000 in 2021.
• The civil war in Syria de-escalated between 2021 and 2022, resulting in its reclassification from a war to a conflict in 2022.
• Non-state conflicts in the region peaked in the mid-2010s due to the spread of IS and instability in Syria, but have since declined, reaching their lowest point since 2012 for two consecutive years as of 2022.
• The Government of Iran engaged in one-sided violence against civilians in 2022, resulting in more than 340 deaths during protests following the death of Mahsa Amini; additionally, executions increased by 36% in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022.
• In 2022, the Egyptian military's efforts to counter IS and Wilayat Sina' in North Sinai involved razing hundreds of homes and farmland, which Human Rights Watch characterized as war crimes.

APA

Obermeier, A. M. (2023). Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a025e684-30d0-4394-a7a5-db4cdc86bc9d/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 4-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Obermeier, Anna Marie. Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a025e684-30d0-4394-a7a5-db4cdc86bc9d/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 4-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{obermeier2023conflict, author = {Obermeier, Anna Marie}, title = {{Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a025e684-30d0-4394-a7a5-db4cdc86bc9d/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 4-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }