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Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
The health systems of the Horn of Africa are severely strained by conflict, insecurity, and drought, leading to high rates of malnutrition and maternal and child mortality. While life expectancy has generally increased, the region struggles to meet SDG targets, with a dual burden of persistent communicable diseases and steady rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries.
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Document type: Report
Assessment of the Post-Paris Agreement Era
The study analyzed bilateral climate finance from 2016 to 2020 for ten countries with low governance scores, finding a total disbursement of US$1.3 billion. The funding was heavily skewed toward mitigation (92%) and dominated by Japan, which provided US$1 billion specifically for natural gas-fired power plants in Uzbekistan.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2022
The document reports that 2022 was the deadliest year for state-based conflicts in Africa since 1989, primarily due to the war in Ethiopia. While non-state conflicts are the most common type of conflict in the region, they have generally been less severe in terms of battle-related deaths than state-based conflicts. The brief also highlights a worrying trend of one-sided violence by governments and a series of military coups in Central and West Africa between 2020 and 2023.
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Document type: Policy brief
Appel à notes conceptuelles : Résilience au changement climatique - De la connaissance à l’action résiliente au climat dans les pays africains
The Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) is seeking concept notes for projects in Africa that leverage local and indigenous knowledge for climate resilience. Up to five projects will be selected for grants of up to $150,000 over a maximum of three years. Projects must align with themes such as gender equality, social inclusion, resilience financing, ecosystem-based approaches, climate knowledge, and youth empowerment. Priority is given to organisations founded and led within Africa, with a strong emphasis on locally-led adaptation and the inclusion of marginalised groups.
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Document type: Guide
Ukraine war and the global food system
The briefing examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security, noting that the two nations provide 12% of global calories. It highlights how port blockades and fertiliser export suspensions have driven up prices and hunger, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. The document warns that protectionist export bans by countries like India and Argentina are exacerbating the crisis, and argues that increasing cropland to compensate is problematic due to the associated fossil fuel and fertiliser requirements.
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Document type: Briefing
Africa-China relations could be boosted by the war in Ukraine
The document examines how the war in Ukraine is facilitating a geopolitical realignment in Africa, where countries are increasingly wary of Western 'coercive diplomacy' and 'paternalism'. It posits that China is capitalizing on this by aligning its diplomatic rhetoric with African desires for non-alignment and multipolarity. The author suggests that China's control over supply chains and its 'Global Security Initiative' provide tangible alternatives to Western partnerships, potentially eroding Western influence on the continent.
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Document type: Research paper
DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040
The document introduces a study on the development prospects of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It highlights the region's challenges, including high poverty, poor state capacity, and a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture in an area where 70% of the land is arid or semi-arid. The report aims to establish a 'Current Path' forecast and develop scenarios for a sustainable and peaceful development trajectory.
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Document type: Report
DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES TO 2040
The Horn of Africa is characterized by chronic instability, including inter-state wars over territorial disputes and internal ethnic conflicts, which have led to massive displacement. The region's geostrategic importance has attracted significant foreign military presence and economic investment, particularly from Gulf states and Turkey, though these external interests often exacerbate regional rivalries and hinder economic integration.
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Document type: Report
From Land Degradation to Land Restoration
The document traces the history of international efforts to combat land degradation, from the 1972 Stockholm Conference to the establishment of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). It details the shift toward 'land degradation neutrality' (LDN), a goal integrated into SDG target 15.3, which aims to balance productive land loss with recovery. The paper identifies critical barriers to LDN implementation, including insecure land tenure, gender inequality in land ownership, lack of national coordination, and insufficient funding, while highlighting initiatives like the Great Green Wall and the LDN Fund.
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Document type: Research paper
States’ Human Rights Obligations in the Context of Climate Change
The report analyzes the 2020-2021 outputs of seven UN Human Rights Treaty Bodies (HRTBs), noting a significant increase in climate-related references despite COVID-19 disruptions. It highlights a shift toward questioning developed nations on mitigation and fossil fuel extraction, alongside a consistent focus on adaptation and the participation of vulnerable groups. The document also examines key individual communications, such as Teitiota v. New Zealand and Sacchi et al. v. Argentina et al., which establish precedents for climate-induced human rights violations and extraterritorial jurisdiction.
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Document type: Report
DIGITAL JUSTICE A STUDY AND ACTION GUIDE
The document argues that digital communication often amplifies existing offline injustices and creates new ones through digital divides, surveillance, and the weaponization of information. It advocates for a transformative movement based on communication rights, inclusive design, and the protection of privacy to ensure digital spaces serve human dignity rather than corporate profit or state control.
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Document type: Guide
LA JUSTICE NUMÉRIQUE
The document argues that digital justice is an extension of social and ecological justice, requiring a multi-dimensional approach to address the digital divide, surveillance, and the weaponization of information. It emphasizes that communication is a fundamental human right and calls for a faith-inspired movement to resist the concentration of power in tech monopolies and state surveillance. The guide highlights specific vulnerabilities of women, ethnic minorities, and disabled persons, while linking digital consumption to environmental degradation through electronic waste and energy use.
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Document type: Guide
JUSTICIA DIGITAL UNA GUÍA PARA EL ESTUDIO Y LA ACCIÓN
The document argues that digital communication often mirrors and amplifies existing offline inequalities, creating new forms of exclusion and oppression. It identifies five key areas of concern: global digital divides, barriers to digital spaces, the militarization of digital resources, the vulnerability of marginalized groups, and the erosion of privacy through surveillance. The guide advocates for a 'transformative movement' based on human rights and faith to ensure digital tools serve human dignity rather than corporate profit or state control. It specifically highlights the intersection of digital justice with gender equality, racial justice, and ecological sustainability, calling for a 'right to repair' and a transition to sustainable energy for digital infrastructure.
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Document type: Guide
Dangerous militarisation makes peace elusive
The document examines the 'militarisation of politics' in Africa, using the conflict in Ethiopia between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a primary example. It defines militarisation as the tendency to settle political disputes militarily and notes that this trend is often a legacy of colonial rule. The author highlights a history of military coups and civil wars across the continent, noting that by 2017, Africa had experienced 200 successful and failed coups. While the African Union (AU) has frameworks like the Lomé Declaration and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to prevent unconstitutional changes of government, the document argues that inconsistent implementation—such as the AU's failure to suspend Chad after the seizure of power by the Transnational Military Council—undermines these efforts. Additionally, the text notes a 17% increase in African military spending over the last decade, totaling $41.2 billion in 2019. In the Horn of Africa, the conflict involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan risks regional destabilisation and the undoing of previous peace agreements.
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Document type: Research paper
African States at the UN Human Rights Council in 2019
The report analyzes the 2019 HRC voting records of 13 African member states, finding a significant lack of unity within the African Group. While South Africa, Rwanda, and Burkina Faso emerged as the strongest supporters of international human rights, Egypt, Eritrea, and Cameroon were the most opposed. The analysis highlights a recurring contradiction where many African states strongly support resolutions condemning Israel while opposing or abstaining from resolutions targeting other rights-abusing regimes. Overall, the report suggests a general unwillingness among African states to defend international human rights, with a noted decline in support since 2017.
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Document type: Report
Durable solutions to migration challenges in East Africa and the Horn
The report analyzes mixed migration in East Africa and the Horn, identifying a complex interplay of political instability, state fragility, poverty, and climate change as primary drivers. It highlights the challenges of protracted refugee situations, particularly the restrictive nature of encampment policies, and contrasts the progressive refugee framework in Uganda with more restrictive regimes in neighboring states. The document argues for a shift from dependency to self-reliance, the harmonization of regional and international laws, and the integration of climate adaptation into migration policies to achieve durable solutions.
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Document type: Report
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.
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Document type: Report
Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa
The 2018 peace agreement and subsequent trilateral alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have resolved historical conflicts but introduced new instabilities. The alliance has exacerbated internal tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia, specifically fueling the conflict in Tigray and tensions in Jubaland. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of this bloc has created distrust among other regional actors like Kenya and Djibouti and threatens to undermine the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by duplicating its integration efforts.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s combined exclusive maritime zone concept
The report examines the Combined Exclusive Maritime Zone for Africa (CEMZA), a proposed 'maritime space without barriers' intended to enhance geostrategic, economic, and security benefits across the African Maritime Domain. While the author argues that CEMZA is compatible with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) if treated as a framework for cooperative governance rather than a replacement for national sovereignty, significant hurdles remain. These include the fact that less than half of Africa's coastal states have fully utilised UNCLOS to maximise their maritime zones, the existence of unresolved territorial and boundary disputes, and a historical gap between African Union norm-setting and actual treaty implementation. The report suggests that CEMZA should focus on joint enforcement jurisdiction and resource management, drawing on successful bilateral delimitation and joint-development examples from the continent.
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Document type: Report
Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations
The report synthesizes findings from 49 peer-reviewed articles and 72 distinct analyses to determine what factors drive individuals to aspire to migrate. It employs a two-step model distinguishing between the formation of aspirations and their conversion into actual migration. The review identifies 32 determinants across demographic, socio-economic, individual, contextual, and migration-related domains. Key findings indicate that migration aspirations are most strongly and consistently driven by youth, male gender, the presence of migration networks, a history of international travel, and exposure to violence or insecurity. Conversely, aspirations are consistently lowered by increasing age, higher subjective well-being, and strong social attachment to the community of origin. The document also notes a significant research gap in the 'conversion' phase—how aspirations translate into actual movement—due to the logistical challenges of longitudinal panel data collection.
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Document type: Report