Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations

The report synthesizes findings from 49 peer-reviewed articles and 72 distinct analyses to determine what factors drive individuals to aspire to migrate. It employs a two-step model distinguishing between the formation of aspirations and their conversion into actual migration. The review identifies 32 determinants across demographic, socio-economic, individual, contextual, and migration-related domains. Key findings indicate that migration aspirations are most strongly and consistently driven by youth, male gender, the presence of migration networks, a history of international travel, and exposure to violence or insecurity. Conversely, aspirations are consistently lowered by increasing age, higher subjective well-being, and strong social attachment to the community of origin. The document also notes a significant research gap in the 'conversion' phase—how aspirations translate into actual movement—due to the logistical challenges of longitudinal panel data collection.

• Age is one of the most consistent determinants of migration aspirations, with younger individuals being significantly more likely to aspire to international moves, particularly among adults and young adults.
• Gender norms strongly influence aspirations, with men generally being more likely to aspire to migrate, often driven by roles as household providers or rites of passage into manhood.
• Marital status typically has a negative effect on migration aspirations, as single individuals are overwhelmingly more likely to want to migrate than those who are married or cohabiting.
• Higher educational attainment is generally associated with a higher likelihood of migration aspirations, although the causal direction remains ambiguous.
• Subjective well-being and life satisfaction are strong negative predictors of migration aspirations; individuals who are happier or more satisfied with life are less likely to want to leave.
• Contextual factors at the country or community level, specifically violence, insecurity, and corruption, consistently increase migration aspirations.
• Social attachment, national pride, and community cohesion act as deterrents to migration, generally reducing the likelihood of aspiring to move.
• Migration-related factors, including existing migration networks, personal or family migration history, and the receipt of remittances, overwhelmingly increase the likelihood of migration aspirations.
• Positive perceptions of potential destination countries, particularly regarding economic opportunities and living conditions, generally raise migration aspirations.
• There is a significant lack of research on the 'conversion' of aspirations into actual migration, but available data suggests that while aspirations are a robust predictor of movement, many aspiring migrants never actually migrate due to obstacles or changes in mind.

APA

Aslany, M., Carling, J., Mjelva, M. B., & Sommerfelt, T. (2021). Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c3fa5331-105a-4f5a-b6e4-04145deee849/Full text PDF 4MB.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Aslany, Maryam, Jørgen Carling, Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva, and Tone Sommerfelt. Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c3fa5331-105a-4f5a-b6e4-04145deee849/Full text PDF 4MB.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aslany |first1=Maryam |last2=Carling |first2=Jørgen |last3=Mjelva |first3=Mathilde Bålsrud |last4=Sommerfelt |first4=Tone |title=Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=29 January 2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c3fa5331-105a-4f5a-b6e4-04145deee849/Full text PDF 4MB.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aslany2021systematic, author = {Aslany, Maryam and Carling, Jørgen and Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud and Sommerfelt, Tone}, title = {{Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c3fa5331-105a-4f5a-b6e4-04145deee849/Full text PDF 4MB.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }