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The document outlines the interconnected risks of climate change, food insecurity, and national security, specifically focusing on how these factors drive instability in the Horn of Africa. It argues that food insecurity acts as both a byproduct and a driver of conflict, creating opportunities for violent extremist organizations like al-Shabab to gain influence. Using Ethiopia as a case study, the briefing highlights the impact of drought, floods, and interstate disputes over resources, while noting that the U.S. national security strategy recognizes global food systems as being under threat from climate events and geopolitical conflicts.

The report identifies poor governance, hydrocarbon dependence, and an unsustainable subsidy system as primary barriers to Algeria's growth. It projects a modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% between 2020 and 2040 under the 'Current Path' but proposes an 'Algerian Dream' scenario based on four reform pillars: improved governance, economic transformation, investment in the knowledge economy, and a transition to sustainable agriculture and renewable energy.

The paper analyzes the shift in German-African energy relations from a focus on development aid to a complex mix of energy diplomacy, foreign policy, and technical cooperation. It highlights a tension between Germany's goals for a green transition (including hydrogen partnerships) and its strategic interests in diversifying fossil fuel imports. The author critiques 'energy colonialism' and the financialization of projects, recommending that future cooperation be grounded in 'energy justice' and a value-chain approach to ensure local benefits and social standards.

The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.

The research identifies a significant gap between solar radiation potential and installed capacity in lower-income countries, driven by high costs of capital linked to sovereign, political, and off-taker risks. To address this, the authors propose a Global Credit Guarantee Facility (GCGF) with a suggested capitalization of USD 6.6 billion to provide partial guarantees for cross-border debt. The paper models two approaches for the GCGF's impact: one reducing overall risk premiums by an average of 6% and another reducing them by 3% by focusing solely on default rates. The facility aims to mobilize approximately USD 120 billion in debt to meet the 2030 solar targets of shortlisted emerging market and developing economy countries.

The document outlines a framework for a Just Energy Transition (JET) in the Global South, specifically focusing on Latin America, the Caribbean (LAC), and Africa. It argues for a comprehensive transformation across social, economic, and environmental spheres, emphasizing the phase-out of all fossil fuels by 2040. For LAC, the brief highlights a strong dependence on extractive industries and the need for economic diversification. For Africa, it emphasizes the urgency of energy access, as 600 million people lack electricity, and warns against increasing debt through loans for transition. Both regions call for increased social participation, the protection of human rights, and the sustainable management of transition minerals. The brief concludes with specific demands for COP28, including new and additional funding from developed nations and the transfer of renewable energy technology as a public good.

The document outlines a framework for a Just Energy Transition (JET) in Latin America, the Caribbean (LAC), and Africa, emphasizing the need to move beyond fossil fuel dependence toward sustainable, community-led energy systems. It identifies shared priorities between the regions, such as social participation and economic diversification, while noting distinct challenges: LAC focuses more on financing mechanisms and existing renewable capacity, whereas Africa emphasizes social justice, energy access for 600 million people, and the legacies of colonialism. The brief calls for a full phase-out of fossil fuels by 2040, grant-based climate finance, and safeguards for the extraction of transition minerals.

China's engagement in the Middle East is fundamentally driven by the need for energy security, as it imports approximately half of its crude oil from the region. To mitigate vulnerabilities, Beijing utilizes the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in infrastructure and digital technology, while balancing diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China has recently acted as a mediator in the Saudi-Iran relationship and is expanding its arms trade, offering alternatives to US weapons. Following the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, China has shifted its approach to favor Palestine and Arab states, viewing its ties with Israel as increasingly expendable to better align with the Global South.

The paper traces the evolution of Indigenous Peoples' engagement with the UNFCCC, highlighting the transition from marginal participation to the recognition of rights in the Paris Agreement. It argues that while institutional progress has been made, the actual integration of Indigenous knowledge into climate policy remains limited and often tokenistic.

The document analyzes Turkey's 'niche diplomacy' in Africa, focusing on its 'Ankara consensus' for development aid, its growing role as an arms exporter (particularly drones), and its trade relations. It highlights a distinction between North African and Sub-Saharan African perceptions of Turkey, noting that while Turkey is seen as a non-colonial partner, its overall trade and aid volumes remain modest compared to major global powers. The brief suggests that Turkey's influence is currently driven more by its status as a rising donor than as a primary trading partner.

The paper examines the transformation of German-African energy relations, moving from a focus on energy poverty and development aid to a complex mix of energy diplomacy, strategic resource interests, and hydrogen technology. It highlights a tension between 'green objectives' (renewables) and 'fossilist objectives' (LNG imports), while warning against 'energy colonialism' in large-scale projects. The author advocates for a transition toward 'energy justice' and a value-chain approach to hydrogen to ensure equitable benefits for African nations.

The document argues that the Loss and Damage Fund must be grounded in human rights to effectively protect marginalized communities and provide substantive redress. It recommends a governance structure with representative board membership, the use of rights-based needs assessments, and the implementation of strict social and environmental safeguards. To ensure adequacy and equity, the authors advocate for public, grants-based funding derived from historic polluters and innovative sources like a Climate Damages Tax, rather than loans that increase debt in the Global South.

The report evaluates the AU PSC's efforts to integrate youth into peace processes via the WiseYouth network and argues for a community-centred approach to the Sahel strategy to address inter-communal rivalries. It examines the 24-month transition in Guinea, emphasizing the need for regional ownership and inclusive electoral reforms. Additionally, it analyzes the conflict between the SAF and RSF in Sudan, warning that a lack of regional consensus and a proliferation of parallel peace processes may prolong the crisis. Finally, it outlines Uganda's priorities for the PSC chairship in May 2023, specifically regarding the AU-EU partnership.

The Middle East experienced a significant decline in battle-related deaths in 2022, primarily due to de-escalation in Syria and Yemen. While state-based conflicts remain the deadliest and most common, non-state conflicts proliferated in the 2010s before declining. One-sided violence increased in Iran in 2022 following protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.

The document examines Senegal's climate adaptation framework, highlighting the alignment between its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the Senegal Emerging Plan for 2035. While progress is noted in sectoral adaptation plans for fisheries and livestock, and local communities have successfully implemented projects in agriculture, coastal protection, and health, significant gaps remain. Key challenges include a lack of evidence-based knowledge, insufficient integration of indigenous practices into national policy, and a substantial financing gap, with NDC needs estimated at USD 14.5 billion by 2030.

The AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade by eliminating 97% of tariff lines, but commercially significant trade is delayed primarily by ongoing negotiations on Rules of Origin (RoO). To maintain momentum, the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) was launched in October 2022 as a pilot involving eight countries: Cameroon, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Tunisia. While political will is high and many countries have developed national implementation strategies, challenges remain, including clashes between national interests and pan-African goals, dependence on external donor funding for expertise, and concerns over productive capacity disparities. The document highlights that 'smaller' countries fear domination by 'bigger' economies like South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria, while some, such as Kenya, anticipate significant tariff revenue losses. Recommendations include seeking political solutions to stalled technical negotiations, institutionalising support through African multilaterals like the AfDB and Afreximbank, and coordinating industrial policies to build complementary production structures across the continent.

The Independent Redress Mechanism (IRM) report details the processing of four specific project complaints (FP039, FP121, FP146, and FP001) and the implementation of its 2022-2023 work plan. Key operational activities included the development of a Gender Strategy Note, the creation of an educational board game called "road to redress," and the provision of mediation training for Direct Access Entities (DAEs). Financially, the IRM spent USD 1.34 million of its USD 1.65 million approved 2022 budget, representing an 81% utilisation rate.

The document examines the constraints of the current international finance architecture for Africa, noting that between 2016 and 2020, the continent received only $19.5 billion in climate funding against annual adaptation needs of $30-50 billion. It proposes that the G20 can bridge this gap by developing green finance taxonomies, promoting risk sharing through multilateral development bank guarantees, and facilitating carbon pricing. The author advocates for the use of debt-for-climate swaps to alleviate debt burdens while funding nature conservation and the expansion of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), citing the South African model. Additionally, the paper highlights the role of natural gas as a transition fuel and the importance of investing in the AFOLU sector, which contributed 56% of Africa's total emissions in 2016.

The report argues that governments have failed to fulfill commitments to shift public financial flows away from fossil fuels, with subsidies increasing since the Paris Agreement. It identifies significant data gaps regarding state-owned enterprise investments and provides a framework for fossil fuel subsidy reform based on pricing, impact management, and stakeholder support.

The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.