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Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model
The research paper presents VI-CRED, a simplified vulnerability index used in the CRED integrated assessment model to distribute global climate damages across nine world regions. Unlike more complex indices, VI-CRED relies on three specific indicators: the share of GDP from agriculture and tourism, the percentage of the population living below 5 meters elevation, and freshwater availability per capita. The index identifies Africa as the most vulnerable region and the United States as the least. The authors compare VI-CRED with the DARA and Maplecroft indices, noting that VI-CRED's emphasis on water scarcity leads to a higher vulnerability ranking for the Middle East. The paper also projects regional climate damages for the year 2105 under business-as-usual and maximum abatement scenarios, showing that while absolute damages decrease with abatement, the relative share of global damages for Africa and Developing Asia/Pacific increases.
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Document type: Research paper
Pacific sea surface temperatures, Andean snowpack and water supply to the semi-arid regions of Chile and Argentina
The Andean snowpack is the primary water source for households, agriculture, industry, hydropower, and ecosystems in semi-arid central Chile and central-western Argentina. Analysis of regional composite data shows that winter snowpack and river streamflow are closely related and influenced by large-scale Pacific surface temperature changes. High snowpack and streamflow coincide with warm El Niño events, while most extreme dry years occur during cold La Niña events. Additionally, shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the mid-1940s and 1976-77 correspond to a 27% decrease and 28% increase in mean annual river discharges, respectively, suggesting the PDO causes low-frequency hydrologic variations. While lower PDO values in the late 1990s were not matched by streamflow records—possibly due to melting glaciers—the interplay between ENSO and PDO is highlighted as critical for improving water scarcity forecasts under a changing climate.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Tree rings point to drought as trigger of social conflict
Analysis of Polylepis tarapacana tree rings in the Bolivian Altiplano reveals a severe drought between 1316 and 1371 that coincided with the abandonment of vulnerable valley villages in favor of fortified hilltop sites (Pukaras). This evidence supports the hypothesis that water scarcity for consumption and irrigation led to social conflict. The document further notes that contemporary warming, glacier shrinkage, and increasing demands from mining, agriculture, and population growth are heightening the risk of future water shortages and political-economic conflict in the region.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales
Analysis of Polylepis tarapacana tree rings in the Bolivian Altiplano reveals a severe, prolonged drought starting in 1316 that coincided with the abandonment of vulnerable settlements in favor of fortified Pukaras, suggesting environmental drivers for social conflict. The document warns that contemporary glacier retreat and increased water demand from mining, agriculture, and population growth may lead to similar water scarcity and political-economic conflicts in the 21st century.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Integrated water-energy-emissions analysis: Applying LEAP and WEAP together in California
The document argues that the 'nexus' of water, energy, and climate requires integrated modeling tools to avoid unwanted policy consequences. To address this, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) linked its WEAP and LEAP systems. A California case study simulating the use of desalinated seawater to meet 5% of Southern California's urban water demand by 2049 found that while desalination could reduce water imports by approximately 300 million cubic meters per year in normal years, it would increase the water sector's electricity use by about 3 terawatt-hours and greenhouse gas emissions by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year by 2049.
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Document type: Policy brief
Watershed Level Baseline Assessment in the Mkindo Watershed, Wami Basin, Tanzania
The report assesses three primary livelihood strategies in the Mkindo watershed: official irrigation agriculture, rainfed agriculture with supplementary irrigation, and livestock keeping. It identifies that while irrigated farmers are financially better off, rainfed farmers are more secure than livestock keepers. Key challenges across the watershed include poor road infrastructure, limited access to financial services, poor water quality leading to frequent health issues like malaria and typhoid, and escalating conflicts between farmers and livestock keepers over land and water access.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change, Water and Energy in the MENA Region: Why a ‘Nexus’ Approach is Crucial for Mitigation and Adaptation
The MENA region faces severe climate vulnerability characterized by warming and water scarcity, yet adaptation and mitigation efforts are often siloed. The document proposes a 'nexus' approach that integrates water and energy planning to identify synergies, such as solar desalination or energy recovery from wastewater, and recommends the use of integrated tools like WEAP and LEAP to move beyond reactive, short-term coping measures.
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Document type: Briefing
Water in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World
The document analyzes the water-energy nexus, highlighting that while low-carbon technologies are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, some may require as much or more water than fossil-fuel generation. It distinguishes between water withdrawal and consumption, noting that cooling systems (once-through, wet-recirculating, and dry) significantly influence water demand. A California case study demonstrates that a standard Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) can reduce emissions and withdrawals but may increase water consumption; however, a strategic 'RPS+Technology' approach—prioritizing solar PV over solar thermal and adopting dry-cooling and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)—can simultaneously reduce emissions and water use.
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Document type: Policy brief
The water-energy nexus
The Stockholm Environment Institute has integrated two existing software tools, WEAP and LEAP, to address the 'water-energy nexus'—the interdependency where water is required for energy production and energy is required for water management. While WEAP models water demand and supply and LEAP handles energy and greenhouse gas mitigation planning, their integration allows planners to analyze tradeoffs, such as the energy intensity of desalination or the water requirements of concentrating solar power, which were previously difficult to assess using the tools in isolation.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Water for Electricity: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World
The report analyzes the 'water-energy nexus,' highlighting how the transition to low-carbon electricity can create new pressures on water resources. It compares the water withdrawals and consumption of conventional fossil-fuel plants, nuclear power, and various renewables. A case study of California's Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) demonstrates that while shifting to renewables can reduce emissions, certain choices—like solar thermal—can increase water consumption. The authors argue for integrated planning that prioritizes low-water technologies, efficiency improvements, and water recycling to ensure energy security without compromising water availability.
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Document type: Report
Living Planet Report 2012
The Living Planet Report 2012 documents a significant global decline in biodiversity and a growing ecological overshoot, where human demand exceeds the Earth's regenerative capacity. It highlights the disproportionate impact of biodiversity loss in tropical and low-income regions and the role of carbon emissions in driving ecological deficits. The report advocates for a paradigm shift toward managing natural capital within planetary limits through 16 priority actions focused on preserving natural capital, producing better, consuming more wisely, and redirecting financial flows and governance.
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Document type: Report
Coping with multiple stresses in rural South Africa
The research examines the intersection of water scarcity, climate change, and socioeconomic barriers in rural semiarid South Africa, finding that decreasing agro-ecosystem productivity and low household and institutional capacity hinder effective adaptation.
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Document type: Research paper
Global water availability and requirements for future food production
The study uses the LPJmL model to evaluate green and blue water availability against the requirements for a balanced diet (3,000 kcal per person per day). It finds that while rising CO2 concentrations may improve crop water productivity, the combined effects of climate and population change are likely to diminish per capita water availability and increase water scarcity in many countries, potentially reducing their capacity to produce sufficient food for their populations.
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Document type: Research paper
Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens
The Stockholm Environment Institute's Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) tool reveals that while aggregate economic models often suggest modest climate damages, these averages hide a wide disparity in outcomes. By comparing individual climate damages against the savings gained from not reducing emissions, CIEL demonstrates that the most vulnerable people—particularly in poor countries—are already facing net losses. While many currently benefit from the status quo, the tool projects that by 2100, the majority of the global population will suffer net losses, and by 2150, almost everyone across all regions will be net losers, except potentially in China.
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Document type: Policy brief
Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens
The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is an illustrative tool that compares individual climate damages against the savings gained from not reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By analyzing factors such as income, economic vulnerability, coastal exposure, and water availability, CIEL demonstrates that regional averages mask a wide diversity of impacts. The report finds that while some individuals are currently 'net winners' due to avoided emission costs, the majority of the global population, including the least vulnerable, will likely become 'net losers' by 2150 as climate damages escalate.
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Document type: Report
The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens
The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is a tool that personalizes the economic consequences of climate change by comparing individual avoidable damages against the savings gained from not paying for emissions reductions. Unlike traditional climate-economic models that aggregate data by region and use temporal discounting, CIEL focuses on individual archetypes and reports results by decade through 2200. It utilizes data from the Stockholm Environment Institute's CRED model to show that while some individuals may be 'net gainers' in the short term, the vast majority will become 'net losers' as climate impacts intensify, particularly those with high vulnerability in terms of income, geography, and economic sector.
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Document type: Report
Water scarcity and climate change adaptation for Yemen's vulnerable communities
The research uses WEAP software to model water scarcity in Sana’a, Sadah, and Aden City, finding that current and predicted consumption patterns are a more significant driver of vulnerability than climate change and will lead to the full depletion of available supplies without urgent intervention.
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Document type: Research paper
Ecosystem Approaches in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
The report examines seven transboundary river basins—Congo, Okavango, Red, La Plata, Danube, Mekong, and Jordan—to evaluate how ecosystem services (ES) are integrated into Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). It finds that while IWRM planning is common, actual implementation is weak and often focuses on traditional services like hydropower and navigation, neglecting critical ES such as carbon sequestration and flood regulation. The authors argue that moving toward an ES-based 'benefit-sharing' model, supported by economic instruments like Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), can overcome political, institutional, and financial barriers to sustainable transboundary water management.
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Document type: Report
National Strategy for Water re-use
The National Strategy for Water re-use, published by GreenCape in June 2011, outlines a framework for implementing water re-use projects in South Africa to address the country's water-stressed status. It defines various types of re-use, analyzes drivers such as cost and public perception, and identifies sector-specific needs in agriculture, industry, mining, and power generation. The strategy proposes a policy environment focused on clear guidelines, updated water quality standards, and the leveraging of private sector capacity to ensure sustainable water resource management.
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Document type: Report
TAPPING INTO WIND POWER
The report presents wind power as a viable alternative to fossil fuels in the U.S., highlighting its competitiveness with natural gas and its ability to reduce CO2 emissions and water consumption. It details economic advantages such as job creation and local tax revenue, while addressing environmental impacts on wildlife and human concerns regarding noise and aesthetics. The document concludes that reaching a target of 20 percent wind electricity by 2030 is feasible and affordable, provided the U.S. adopts stable long-term policies like a national renewable electricity standard.
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Document type: Report