Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales

This IAI fact sheet describes how tree-ring analysis of Polylepis tarapacana in the Bolivian Altiplano provides evidence that a severe, prolonged drought between 1316 and 1371 coincided with a transition from vulnerable settlements to fortified sites (Pukaras), suggesting that water scarcity triggered social conflicts.

• Researchers from the IAI used the growth rings of Polylepis tarapacana, a small tree growing at 4,500-5,000 meters, to reconstruct precipitation in the Bolivian Altiplano back to the year 1290. The study established a 700-year regional chronology for the Southern Bolivian Altiplano based on samples between 17-23˚S, revealing that tree ring width varies consistently with annual precipitation.
• A severe and prolonged drought occurred during the 14th century, specifically starting in 1316 and lasting until 1371. This period is identified as the longest dry spell of the last 700 years and followed a relatively humid period at the end of the 13th century that had been favorable for agriculture.
• Archaeological evidence indicates that during the 14th century, 'vulnerable' settlements in low-lying areas were abandoned in favor of fortified sites on summits known as Pukaras. This transition coincided with the 1316-1371 drought, supporting the hypothesis that water scarcity for consumption and irrigation destabilized the local economy (based on rain-fed agriculture and livestock) and led to conflicts between neighboring communities.
• Current environmental trends in the Altiplano, including persistent warming and unprecedented glacier retreat since the 1950s, combined with increased water demand from population growth, mining, and agriculture, increase the future risk of water scarcity and potential political and economic conflicts.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2012). Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot11_SP.pdf

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales. 2012. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot11_SP.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales |date=2012 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot11_SP.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2012los, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{Los anillos de crecimiento de árboles relacionan sequías con conflictos sociales}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2012}, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot11_SP.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }