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Niger is a low-income, landlocked country in Western Africa facing severe developmental challenges, ranking 189th out of 191 countries on the 2024 Human Development Index. The country is characterized by extreme heat and rainfall variability, with desertification and climate change increasing vulnerabilities. Politically, Niger has experienced a history of instability, most recently marked by a July 2023 military coup that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. This shift led to the withdrawal of French and US military forces and Niger's exit from ECOWAS and the G5 Sahel to join the Alliance of Sahel States and the Confederation of Sahel States. Despite seeking new partners like Russia, China, and Türkiye, the security situation remains precarious due to Islamist insurgent activity and internal dissent from groups such as the Patriotic Liberation Front.

Mali is a low-income Sahelian nation facing severe environmental degradation and political volatility. The country is characterized by three natural zones—Sudanese, Sahelian, and Saharan—and is highly vulnerable to climate change, having experienced significant rainfall declines since the 1980s. Politically, Mali has a history of military coups and recurring rebellions, most recently leading to its withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2024 and the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States with Burkina Faso and Niger. The document also notes the presence of violent extremist groups and the shift in external relations from France toward Russia.

The report concludes that Africa's path to economic development lies in transitioning from a reliance on global export markets to a focus on domestic food self-sufficiency. It emphasizes the need for coordinated government support for smallholder farmers, investment in AgTech, and the adoption of sustainable, indigenous farming practices to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change, particularly in the Sahel region.

The Cape Floristic Region is identified as the world's smallest plant kingdom, characterized by high endemism and specific rainfall patterns. It hosts over 9,000 plant species—representing 20% of Africa's total plant species—and more than 320 bird species.

Deforestation in the Congo Basin risks reducing regional rainfall by up to 40%, which could lead to cumulative cocoa yield losses of 3.06 million tonnes across nine African countries by 2050. This supply shock is projected to drive cocoa prices to USD 68.1 per kilogram by 2050, with deforestation accounting for 40.2% of that price. EU importers could face cumulative additional costs of USD 256 billion by 2050. The report argues that investing in forest conservation, particularly community-led restoration, is more cost-effective than inaction, offering avoided costs of USD 1.8 to USD 6 for every dollar invested.

Amazon deforestation reduces rainfall and river flow, leading to significant energy and revenue losses for Brazil's largest hydroelectric plants. Together, Itaipu and Belo Monte lose an estimated 3,780 GWh of generation potential annually, equating to approximately US$ 200 million in lost revenue. The report emphasizes the need to integrate forest conservation and restoration policies with energy security strategies to protect the national electricity mix.

Climate Central analysis shows that human-caused climate change significantly increased the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 90°F in West Africa's cocoa belt from 2015 to 2024. The most severe impacts occurred in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where climate change added approximately 40 days of growth-limiting heat per year. These temperature extremes, combined with shifting rainfall patterns and pests, threaten global cocoa supplies, increase chocolate prices, and endanger the health and livelihoods of small-scale farmers.

Climate change has significantly increased the number of days with temperatures above 32°C in West Africa's cocoa belt, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. This excessive heat, especially during the main crop cycle (October-March), can reduce cacao harvest quantity and quality by hindering photosynthesis and increasing water stress. In 2024, 71% of analyzed cacao-producing areas across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria experienced at least six additional weeks of such heat. Beyond temperature, production is threatened by erratic rainfall, the cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV), smuggling, and illegal mining.

The research identifies strong intraseasonal teleconnections between South American and South African daily rainfall, with South American anomalies leading by 4-5 days. The mechanisms vary by season: summer involves both local Walker cell modulation and extratropical Rossby wave trains, while winter is dominated by Rossby wave trains and subtropical influences. These processes create circulation changes in southern Africa that favor rainfall-producing systems like cutoff lows.

The report analyzes the causal link between Amazon deforestation and reduced hydroelectric power generation in Brazil, utilizing case studies of the Teles Pires HPP and plants in the Paraná Basin to quantify energy and revenue losses.

The research establishes a method to quantify the impact of tropical deforestation on hydropower capacity. Using the Teles Pires plant in Brazil as a case study, the author analyzes the value of restoring deforested Amazon regions and the potential costs associated with deforesting Indigenous Territories, demonstrating the critical link between forest preservation and energy sector stability.

The assessment identifies the Awaso Zonal Council as the most vulnerable area in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai municipality due to high exposure to bushfires and droughts, combined with high sensitivity in agriculture and infrastructure. Agriculture and human health are ranked as the most vulnerable sectors, with rainfall variability and rising temperatures threatening crop yields and increasing disease prevalence. Projections indicate annual rainfall will increase to 1678 mm by 2050, while both day and night temperatures are expected to rise by 1°C by mid-century. The report recommends policy interventions including livelihood diversification, the construction of feeder roads, the implementation of early warning systems, and the promotion of climate-smart agriculture and irrigation.

The report demonstrates a causal link between Amazonian deforestation and reduced hydroelectric output in Brazil, affecting plants both within the Amazon and in distant regions like the Paraná Basin. Through case studies of the Teles Pires and several Paraná Basin plants, it quantifies energy and financial losses, highlighting that 17 of Brazil's 20 largest hydroelectric plants are exposed to the 'flying rivers' mechanism. The document argues that forest conservation is essential for national energy security and suggests targeted restoration policies based on land tenure categories.

The author warns that ignoring the scientific link between tropical forest preservation and rainfall patterns will lead to unsustainable economic costs for Brazil due to increasing droughts and agribusiness losses.

West Africa has experienced warming of 1–3°C since the mid-1970s, leading to increased heatwaves, variable rainfall, and widespread losses in GDP and food productivity. Future projections indicate severe risks, including a potential 30% decline in marine fisheries catch and significant population exposure to sea level rise, particularly in coastal cities like Lagos and Abidjan. Adaptation requires transformative, ecosystem-based approaches and a significant increase in climate finance, as current funding is insufficient and heavily skewed toward non-African institutions.

The report demonstrates that deforestation in the Amazon, specifically within the Xingu River Basin, significantly reduces rainfall in Mato Grosso. A counterfactual scenario where all Xingu Indigenous Territories are deforested predicts an average annual precipitation decrease of 7%, with more severe reductions during the dry season. These changes threaten agricultural productivity, urban water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation, with the center and north of the state being most vulnerable.

The research examines how the effect of anomalous rainfall (excess and scarce) on violent, state-based conflict varies based on societal vulnerability factors. Using a causal forest model on global grid-cell data, the author finds that while rainfall variability generally has a small effect on conflict, this effect is context-specific. Scarce rainfall is more likely to increase conflict risk in communities with high agricultural employment and poor governance (low SHDI and GDP). Excess rainfall's effect is more complex, showing higher risk in areas with high population density, low globalization, low democracy, and low GDP, but contrary to expectations, it showed smaller effects in areas with high political exclusion or greater distance to the capital.

Ethiopia's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) serves as a roadmap to reduce climate vulnerability by mainstreaming adaptation into development activities, aiming to support the country's goal of achieving middle-income status by 2025. The process involves vertical integration across federal, regional, zonal, and woreda levels, ensuring dialogue between national and sub-national governments, civil society, and the private sector. The NAP is designed to guide the implementation of climate-resilient strategies already produced by various line ministries under the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. Key climate drivers identified include increasing temperatures, rainfall variability, droughts, and floods, with priority adaptation sectors encompassing agriculture, water, forestry, health, urban areas, industry, transport, and power.

Albania established the Inter Ministerial Working Group on Climate Change (IMWGCC) in 2014 to coordinate climate mitigation and adaptation. The NAP process began in 2015 with a participatory stocktaking workshop, with the goal of adopting a national strategy on climate change, a NAP document, and a national mitigation plan in 2018. The country's approach focuses on mainstreaming adaptation into sector plans and the National Strategy for Development and Integration, targeting priority sectors such as agriculture, forestry, tourism, energy, settlements, and water.

Malawi initiated its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process in 2014, completing a stocktaking exercise and establishing a roadmap. The process is managed by a core team of adaptation experts collaborating with cross-sectoral experts to identify long-term priorities. To support this, Malawi submitted a NAP formulation proposal to the Green Climate Fund with technical assistance from UNEP. The document identifies key climate impacts—including wildfires, drought, floods, rainfall variability, and increasing temperatures—and priority sectors for adaptation such as agriculture, fisheries, health, infrastructure, energy, forestry, water, wildlife, and gender.