Deforestation Cuts the Lights: Itaipu, Belo Monte and the Cost of Forest Loss

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative, PUC-RIO, and Amazon 2030 analyzes how Amazon deforestation reduces rainfall and river flow, thereby decreasing electricity generation and revenue for Brazil's two largest hydroelectric power plants (HPPs), Itaipu and Belo Monte.

• Amazon deforestation is causing a combined annual loss of 3,780 GWh in energy generation potential for the Itaipu and Belo Monte hydroelectric power plants. This loss is equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 1.5 million people and results in an annual revenue loss of around US$ 200 million for the plants.
• Itaipu HPP, located over 1,000 km from the Amazon biome, suffers an estimated average annual electricity generation loss of 1,380 GWh due to deforestation. This results in a yearly revenue loss of approximately US$ 86 million, which represents about 6% of the plant's recent average annual profit.
• Belo Monte HPP, situated within the Amazon biome, experiences an average annual electricity generation loss of 2,400 GWh due to deforestation. This translates to an annual revenue loss of US$ 110 million, approximately 20% of the plant's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
• The reduction in power generation is driven by the disruption of "flying rivers"—moisture-carrying air currents from the Amazon. Deforestation prevents these currents from being recharged with water, reducing rainfall in hydrographic basins and subsequently lowering river flows that feed the HPPs.
• The areas of the Amazon most critical for energy generation vary by plant: Belo Monte's influence area is more concentrated in eastern Pará and western Maranhão, specifically within the "arc of deforestation." Itaipu's influence area is more dispersed, with air currents extending over several Brazilian regions and other Amazonian countries.
• Land tenure analysis shows that private rural properties registered under the Land Management System (SIGEF) are the primary land category in the wind paths for both plants (39.6% for Itaipu and 29% for Belo Monte). Other significant categories include Indigenous Lands (31.8% for Itaipu) and Sustainable Use Protected Areas (23% for Belo Monte).
• The loss of hydroelectric capacity may force the National Interconnected System (SIN) to increase reliance on thermoelectric plants, which are more expensive to operate and typically rely on fossil fuels, thereby increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). Deforestation Cuts the Lights: Itaipu, Belo Monte and the Cost of Forest Loss. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/deforestation-cuts-the-lights-itaipu-belo-monte-and-the-cost-of-forest-loss/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Deforestation Cuts the Lights: Itaipu, Belo Monte and the Cost of Forest Loss. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/deforestation-cuts-the-lights-itaipu-belo-monte-and-the-cost-of-forest-loss/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Deforestation Cuts the Lights: Itaipu, Belo Monte and the Cost of Forest Loss |date=31 March 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/deforestation-cuts-the-lights-itaipu-belo-monte-and-the-cost-of-forest-loss/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025deforestation, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Deforestation Cuts the Lights: Itaipu, Belo Monte and the Cost of Forest Loss}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/deforestation-cuts-the-lights-itaipu-belo-monte-and-the-cost-of-forest-loss/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }