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Turning vision into reality
The paper evaluates Namibia's progress toward Vision 2030 and NDP4 targets using the International Futures (IFs) model. It identifies physical capital—specifically electricity, sanitation, and transportation—as the primary constraint on economic growth. Through three scenarios (Current Path, Infrastructure Access, and Leave No Namibian Out), the author demonstrates that while heavy infrastructure investment improves health and GDP, it can detract from education spending. The analysis concludes that Namibia is unlikely to meet its aggressive GDP growth and infant mortality targets by 2030, and that deep-seated structural issues like inequality and extreme poverty will persist across all modeled paths.
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Document type: Research paper
From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area
The research finds a strong theoretical case for the TFTA due to high trade complementarity between Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa, though actual trade is currently limited by significant tariff and non-tariff barriers. While South Africa views the TFTA as a tool for 'developmental regionalism' to reduce poverty through industrialization, secondary powers like Kenya and Egypt may face competition from South African exports in their respective regional markets. The document emphasizes that the success of the TFTA depends on massive upgrades to transregional transport and energy infrastructure, noting that while some progress has been made in port and road corridors, large-scale energy projects in the DRC and Ethiopia face severe financial and technical obstacles.
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Document type: Research paper
South African Futures 2035
The paper argues that South Africa is currently on a 'Bafana Bafana Redux' trajectory characterized by modest growth and structural unemployment due to an electricity supply crisis and poor governance. While a more positive 'Mandela Magic Lite' scenario is possible through improved leadership and policy coherence, the author suggests the country is likely to remain in a middle-income trap in the near term. The analysis highlights a critical generational shift as 'born-free' voters increase in number, potentially reducing the ANC's dominance and pushing the country toward a more competitive multiparty democracy.
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Document type: Research paper
How a high-ambition global climate deal will help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
The document argues that a high-ambition climate agreement, limiting global warming to 2°C, is essential for achieving the SDGs, particularly those related to poverty, inequality, and energy. Using global analysis and case studies from Dominica, Jamaica, Pakistan, and Uganda, the research indicates that a low-ambition agreement would significantly increase poverty levels in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean by 2030.
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Document type: Policy brief
From Policy to Practice and Back
The report examines the challenges and successes of implementing Western sustainability and development agendas within Vietnam's highly centralized party-state. It analyzes how historical legacies, including Chinese influence and the impact of the US war, shape current governance and social dynamics. Through various case studies—including hydropower strategic environmental assessments, poverty reduction programs like Chia Sẻ, and research on Agent Orange—the author demonstrates that while the Vietnamese state is open to experimental pilot projects, it remains resistant to reforms that challenge its monopoly on power or its paternalistic view of ethnic minorities. The document concludes that long-term engagement and an understanding of local cultural contexts are essential for effective policy advice in Vietnam.
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Document type: Report
Promoting Financial Inclusion for Inclusive Growth in Africa
The paper argues that financial inclusion is essential for alleviating poverty and stimulating local economic development in Africa. It identifies significant barriers to formal banking for the rural poor, including strict 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) regulations, lack of documentation, and geographic distance from banks. Consequently, many rely on informal savings and credit schemes—such as esusu in Nigeria and susu in Ghana—and informal remittance networks, which provide flexibility but carry high risks due to lack of regulation. The author highlights M-Pesa in Kenya as a successful model of mobile-led financial inclusion, contrasting it with less successful attempts in other countries. The document emphasizes that physical infrastructure must be paired with financial literacy to be sustainable and recommends that governments create enabling regulatory environments, diversify financial products (including Islamic banking), and improve credit-reporting infrastructure for SMEs.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Compatible Development: Pathway or Pipedream?
The briefing examines the concept of 'climate compatible development' as a means to achieve 'zero-zero'—the simultaneous eradication of poverty and the elimination of net CO2 emissions. It frames this as a 'wicked problem' requiring the integration of mitigation, adaptation, and economic transformation. The author emphasizes that success depends on policy leadership, careful design to manage winners and losers, and cross-government implementation beyond environmental ministries.
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Document type: Briefing
Religion and migrants’ development engagements
The document examines how Islamic charity, specifically zakat, intersects with migrant remittances and organized diaspora development efforts among Pakistani-origin Muslims in Oslo. It argues that these religious motivations create lasting transnational ties across generations but remain largely invisible or misunderstood by mainstream Norwegian society and the Global North's development sector. The authors suggest a need for greater recognition of religious frameworks in development and a critical re-evaluation of who defines 'development' activities.
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Document type: Policy brief
The 2014 G-20 Summit: Maximising Growth, Revenue and Stability
The 2014 G-20 Summit, hosted by Australia, focuses on 'growth and resilience' to address a 'fragile, sluggish global economy'. A key objective is the 'Brisbane Action Plan', aiming to boost G-20 GDP by at least 2 per cent above projections over five years, potentially adding over $2 trillion to global GDP. The G-20's broader agenda includes financial regulation, international tax reform, and energy market resilience. For South Africa, the summit is critical as it seeks to align global growth outcomes with its National Development Plan's goal of over 5 per cent GDP growth, while advocating for inclusive and sustainable growth across Africa.
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Document type: Briefing
Raising the ambition
The report argues that a high ambition climate agreement, aiming to limit global warming to 2°C by 2100, is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. While physical climate impacts are projected to be similar across scenarios until 2030, a high ambition deal provides the policy framework, international cooperation, and finance necessary to drive green growth and reduce poverty. Conversely, a low ambition agreement (3-5°C warming) is linked to slower economic growth, higher inequality, and a significantly greater risk of failing to meet SDGs related to poverty, inequality, and global partnerships.
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Document type: Report
Open letter from the Chairman and President of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) asserts that climate change is the most critical sustainable development challenge and that sustainable energy access is a primary lever for eradicating poverty. The authors call for the final text of the UN Sustainable Development Goals to explicitly include both climate mitigation and adaptation measures, as well as the scaling up of sustainable energy access, to ensure global action and partnership between public and private sectors.
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Document type: Statement
Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia
The Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia establishes a methodology for assessing climate risks to lives and livelihoods in the region, addressing gaps in existing reports by providing downscaled data for sub-national management. The guide is part of a broader project to create national climate risk profiles for five Central Asian countries to integrate climate risk management into policy making.
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Document type: Guide
Liczy się każdy głos
The "Liczy się każdy głos" project in Flanders sought to bridge the gap between marginalized citizens and politicians. By conducting interviews with over 8,000 people, the project created a memorandum on social issues and organized political debates in 13 cities to ensure that the needs of the socio-economically disadvantaged were represented in the public discourse.
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Document type: Case study
Opportunities for triple-wins development in coastal Belize
The document highlights the threats climate change poses to Belize's coastal ecosystems and the need for resilient economic development. It introduces a 'triple wins matrix' methodology to identify policies that balance economic growth with climate concerns, arguing that the protection and conservation of mangroves in Belize can achieve these simultaneous goals.
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Document type: Policy brief
Locating the Policy Space for Inclusive Green Growth within the SADC Extractive Sector
The document examines the tension between economic growth driven by extractive industries in the SADC region and the resulting social and environmental harms. It argues that because a shift away from extractive-dependent growth is unlikely to happen immediately, the effective management of this sector is the primary lever for achieving a transition toward inclusive green growth that benefits rural poor populations.
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Document type: Policy brief
RE: The IFC and Lessons Learned
The document argues that the IFC's 'lessons learned' process is insufficient because it ignores institutional culture, fails to address the systemic miscategorisation of project risks, and lacks a formal implementation and monitoring framework. While acknowledging some positive steps, the authors highlight ongoing failures in projects across Honduras, Burma, Indonesia, and Nicaragua, and call for a time-bound plan to integrate human rights assessments and poverty reduction goals into IFC operations.
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Document type: Statement
Agricultural Water Management Technology Expansion and Impact on Crop Yields in Northern Burkina Faso (1980-2010): A Review
The study finds that soil and water conservation (SWC) and small reservoir expansion increased significantly in northern Burkina Faso, particularly in regions receiving 700 mm of rainfall or less. While regional cereal yields rose by approximately 3% per year, and rice productivity showed a strong correlation with reservoir expansion, the causal links to poverty reduction and food security are less clear due to data limitations. The report suggests that AWM adoption is one of many factors contributing to livelihood improvements and requires further long-term analysis to establish definitive causality.
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Document type: Report
Catalysing sustainable tourism: The case of Chiang Mai, Thailand
The document details Chiang Mai's transition toward sustainable urban tourism by implementing a non-motorised transport (NMT) strategy. Facing rapid growth and high emissions from the tourism sector—which generated 4,417,511 tons of CO2e in 2011—the city focused on walking and cycling to mitigate climate impact and alleviate poverty. The initiative, supported by the Mayor and a multi-stakeholder partnership, aims to increase bicycle lane networks from 4% to 10% in the city centre. The project served as a catalyst for further low-carbon policies, including a Global Environment Facility (GEF) pilot project and the proposed Chiang Mai City Council for Climate Change.
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Document type: Case study
Revamping Artisanal Gold Mining in Zimbabwe to Catalyse Poverty Reduction
The document examines the role of artisanal gold mining in Zimbabwe as a tool for poverty alleviation and economic growth, while highlighting severe governance failures. It argues that the current state-led approach of criminalisation has failed to address environmental degradation, smuggling, and conflict between artisanal and commercial miners. The authors recommend formalising the sector through clearer land rights, competitive gold pricing to discourage smuggling, and partnerships between small-scale and large-scale operators to improve productivity and environmental compliance.
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Document type: Policy brief
Forecasting South African election results
The document analyzes four potential political pathways for South Africa: 'Bafana Bafana' (moderate underachievement), 'The Future is ANC' (continued dominance), 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy' (coalition governance), and 'A Nation Divided' (populist decline). It identifies the leadership of the ANC, splits within COSATU, rising voter apathy among 'born frees', and the DA's ability to attract black voters as decisive factors. The author recommends electoral reforms, including a mixed-member proportional system and mandatory voting, to address a lack of political accountability.
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Document type: Policy brief