South African Futures 2035

The paper argues that South Africa is currently on a 'Bafana Bafana Redux' trajectory characterized by modest growth and structural unemployment due to an electricity supply crisis and poor governance. While a more positive 'Mandela Magic Lite' scenario is possible through improved leadership and policy coherence, the author suggests the country is likely to remain in a middle-income trap in the near term. The analysis highlights a critical generational shift as 'born-free' voters increase in number, potentially reducing the ANC's dominance and pushing the country toward a more competitive multiparty democracy.

• South Africa's population is projected to grow to 67.3 million by 2035, driven by inward migration, lower infant mortality, and increased life expectancy, despite fertility rates expected to fall below replacement levels within 10 years.
• The 'Bafana Bafana Redux' scenario forecasts an average growth rate of 3.6% from 2015 to 2035, which is 0.4% lower than the original 'Bafana Bafana' forecast due to the electricity crisis and government inefficiency. This results in an economy forecast to be 10% smaller by 2035 than it would have been under the higher trajectory.
• The electricity supply crisis is a primary constraint on growth; the author notes that the country is unlikely to achieve more than 2% growth per year until the supply improves. Load shedding has had a direct negative impact, with some estimates suggesting it wiped almost 2% of the country's economic weight off the map in a single month.
• South Africa suffers from 'structural unemployment' that is unlikely to be significantly reduced by modest growth. The number of unemployed people is expected to increase for at least a decade before falling, as the working-age population grows faster than the economy creates jobs.
• A generational shift in the electorate is expected to alter political dynamics. By 2034, 'born-free' voters (those born in 1994 and thereafter) are forecast to outnumber the combined total of older voting cohorts, likely increasing voting volatility and reducing the ANC's reliance on liberation credentials.
• The 'Mandela Magic Lite' scenario suggests that modest, achievable interventions in governance, infrastructure, and health could raise average growth to 4% by 2035, resulting in an economy US$71 billion larger than the 'Bafana Bafana Redux' scenario.
• Extreme poverty, defined as living on less than R11.17 per person per day (2011 prices), is forecast to decline from 21.7% in 2011 to approximately 14% by 2035 under the 'Bafana Bafana Redux' scenario.
• The author identifies a 'middle-income trap' where high social expenditure required to address the apartheid legacy and a reliance on social grants limit the capital available for high-end skills and infrastructure investment.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2015). South African Futures 2035. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper282.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. South African Futures 2035. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper282.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=South African Futures 2035 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper282.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2015south, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{South African Futures 2035}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper282.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }