From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area

The research finds a strong theoretical case for the TFTA due to high trade complementarity between Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa, though actual trade is currently limited by significant tariff and non-tariff barriers. While South Africa views the TFTA as a tool for 'developmental regionalism' to reduce poverty through industrialization, secondary powers like Kenya and Egypt may face competition from South African exports in their respective regional markets. The document emphasizes that the success of the TFTA depends on massive upgrades to transregional transport and energy infrastructure, noting that while some progress has been made in port and road corridors, large-scale energy projects in the DRC and Ethiopia face severe financial and technical obstacles.

• Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa show high regional trade complementarity, meaning their exports align well with the imports of other potential TFTA members. Specifically, the average match is 69.45% for Egypt, 62.08% for South Africa, and 50.37% for Kenya.
• Ethiopia has significantly lower regional trade complementarity (25.60%) and negligible trade intensity, suggesting that access to regional markets is not a primary driver for its commitment to the TFTA.
• There is a risk of friction between South Africa and secondary powers due to export similarity. Kenya is particularly vulnerable in the EAC, where approximately 73% of its exports to Tanzania and Uganda overlap with South African products.
• South African policymakers advocate for 'developmental regionalism,' using the TFTA to reduce poverty by coordinating industrial-development policies and upgrading transregional transport infrastructure to create regional commodity chains.
• Efforts to improve transport logistics include the implementation of one-stop border posts, which can reduce dwell times by 40% to 50%, and the harmonization of axle load limits and carrier licenses.
• The DRC and Ethiopia have massive hydropower potential that could support South Africa's energy needs, but these projects face critical hurdles. The Grand Inga project in the DRC could generate 44,000MW, while Ethiopia's GERD is forecast to generate 6,000MW.
• Ethiopia's ambitious electrification scheme may lead to unsustainable debt and inflation, as the required annual investment of $3.4 billion represents more than 10% of its GDP.

APA

Scholvin, S., & Wrana, J. (2015). From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf

Chicago

Scholvin, Sören, and Jöran Wrana. From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2015. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholvin |first1=Sören |last2=Wrana |first2=Jöran |title=From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2015 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholvin2015from, author = {Scholvin, Sören and Wrana, Jöran}, title = {{From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2015}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }