From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area

This research paper evaluates the economic potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA), a proposed joint customs union between the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Through econometric analysis and interviews with decision-makers in South Africa and Kenya, the authors assess trade complementarity, intensity, and the role of transregional infrastructure in driving industrialization and poverty reduction.

• Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa demonstrate significant regional trade complementarity with potential TFTA members, meaning their exports align well with the imports of other regional countries. On average, the imports of countries seeking to join the TFTA match the exports of Egypt by 69.45%, South Africa by 62.08%, and Kenya by 50.37%.
• Ethiopia has very low regional trade complementarity (averaging 25.60%) and negligible trade intensity, suggesting that access to regional markets is not a primary driver for its commitment to the TFTA.
• There is potential for friction between South Africa and secondary powers (Egypt and Kenya) due to export similarity. High overlap exists in the markets of Libya, Sudan, and the EAC, where South African products may outcompete those of Egypt and Kenya.
• South African policymakers view the TFTA through the lens of 'developmental regionalism,' aiming to reduce poverty by coordinating industrial-development policies and upgrading transregional transport infrastructure to create diversified regional production linkages.
• Kenyan decision-makers expect the TFTA to attract foreign investment in strategic sectors and facilitate regional commodity chains, which would allow Kenya to move from exporting raw materials to producing manufactured goods for the Eastern and Central African markets.
• Transport infrastructure is a critical bottleneck for the TFTA. High costs are driven by poor road and rail connectivity, differing railway gauges (1m in East Africa vs 1.067m in Southern Africa), and significant border delays that can add $1,000 to $2,000 in costs per truck.
• Efforts to improve transport logistics include the implementation of one-stop border posts, common axle load limits, and the mutual recognition of carrier licenses to reduce non-tariff barriers.
• Energy cooperation is a long-term TFTA objective, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Ethiopia positioned as potential major electricity exporters via giant hydropower projects like the Grand Inga and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
• Significant risks threaten regional energy goals, including Ethiopia's potential for an unsustainable debt profile due to its ambitious electrification scheme and South Africa's skepticism regarding the reliability of hydropower imports and the capacity of Congolese institutions.

APA

Scholvin, S., & Wrana, J. (2015). From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf

Chicago

Scholvin, Sören, and Jöran Wrana. From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2015. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholvin |first1=Sören |last2=Wrana |first2=Jöran |title=From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2015 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholvin2015from, author = {Scholvin, Sören and Wrana, Jöran}, title = {{From the Cape to Cairo? The Potential of the Tripartite Free Trade Area}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2015}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Occasional-Paper-221.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }