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The document argues that climate change creates systemic, transboundary risks to food security that cannot be managed through traditional national strategies like diversification. Using a 'stress test' methodology, it identifies critical vulnerabilities in the trade of maize, rice, wheat, soy, sugar cane, and coffee, highlighting that a few major exporters—such as the US, Brazil, and China—transmit significant risk to global consumers. The authors call for a shift from national adaptation to a cooperative multilateral approach, utilizing frameworks like the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation and rethinking climate finance to target systemic resilience in global commodity markets.

The report argues that achieving Zero Hunger requires a geopolitical understanding of food security, as unilateralism and competition over resources, trade disruptions, and armed conflict create barriers to eradicating hunger. It highlights that climate change further complicates these dynamics by reshaping both the physical environment and political calculations, necessitating integrated policy analysis.

The author advocates for the appointment of Ngozi Okonjo Iweala as Director-General of the World Trade Organization, citing her international experience and African perspective as essential for restoring faith in the multilateral trading system. The text emphasizes that a revival of world trade is critical for Africa's sustainable development, noting that the continent must generate 20 million jobs annually over the next 20 years through agriculture and manufacturing to avoid poverty and conflict. While acknowledging the qualifications of Yoo Myung-hee, the author asserts that Okonjo Iweala's background as a former World Bank Managing Director and Finance Minister of Nigeria makes her better equipped to handle current global uncertainties, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change.

The report analyzes how fossil fuel subsidies create direct and pass-through trade effects, distorting markets for crude energy products, refined energy carriers, and energy-intensive industries. It provides empirical evidence on the massive scale of these markets—with fossil fuel product trade alone representing over 10% of worldwide trade value in 2018—and argues that current WTO rules are ineffective at constraining these measures. The document proposes five options for WTO engagement: improving transparency, building capacity, establishing a pledge-and-review process, clarifying existing rules, and negotiating new binding subsidy disciplines.

The document examines the environmental and socioeconomic externalities of Argentine soybean production driven by global demand, particularly from the EU. It highlights that while soybean exports provide macroeconomic stability for Argentina, they cause significant environmental degradation, including deforestation and GHG emissions, and mixed social outcomes. The brief argues that achieving the SDGs requires coordinated international governance and shared responsibility between producing and consuming regions to mitigate these negative spillovers.

The report describes Africa as a 'resilient but marginal player' in a global order where multilateralism is eroding and power is shifting toward a polycentric model. It identifies key barriers to African agency, including structural economic dependence, internal political fragmentation among 55 diverse states, and limited capacity at UN missions. The authors argue that Africa can increase its leverage by pooling resources through the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and by leveraging the 'Big 5' powers (Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Ethiopia) to unify continental positions. While the report notes the risks of great power competition—specifically the 'new Scramble for Africa'—it highlights that African states have successfully exercised agency in relations with China through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The author advocates for a shift away from 'hyper-globalisation and ultra-liberalism' toward a trade system that prioritizes climate sustainability, data protection, and regional empowerment. Key concerns include the projected tripling of transport emissions by 2049 and the need for a multilateral alternative to current trade wars and protectionism.

The report evaluates the EU's Green Line Regulation (GLR) as a tool for liberal peace-building in Cyprus. While legally successful in providing a basis for movement across the divide, it has been only partially successful in generating economic activity. This failure is attributed to design flaws in the GLR and domestic legal, political, and psychological barriers.

The paper examines the macadamia nut sectors in South Africa, Mozambique, and Malawi to identify opportunities for regional value chain development and smallholder inclusion. It highlights South Africa's position as a global production leader and potential value-adding partner, while noting that Malawi and Mozambique face challenges such as limited technical knowledge, poor infrastructure, and a lack of extension services. The document recommends establishing a regional industry body for SADC producers and improving economies of scale through collaboration and the creation of local markets for industrialized macadamia products.

The document analyzes the macadamia nut industry in Southern Africa, focusing on the disparity between the advanced sector in South Africa and the emerging industries in Malawi and Mozambique. It highlights the barriers smallholder farmers face, such as high entry costs, lack of technical support, and poor infrastructure. While South Africa is a global leader in production, the report argues that a regional value chain is hindered by a lack of cooperation, differing national capacities, and a heavy reliance on exporting nut-in-shell (NIS) to China. It recommends establishing regional industry bodies, improving domestic processing capabilities, and enhancing technical support for smallholders to move beyond raw material exports.

The document analyzes how biophysical climate impacts and international trade shifts threaten employment in South Africa's chemicals sub-sector, while identifying job creation potential through mitigation and adaptation interventions.

The South African mining sector is highly vulnerable to job losses driven by biophysical climate impacts and international trade responses, with coal, gold, and platinum being the most at risk. While biophysical impacts could lead to 14,700 job losses across all sectors, international trade responses could cause between 9,400 and 52,800 losses by 2030. The report highlights that coal and lignite mining is particularly vulnerable, with expected job losses of approximately 6% by 2030. However, the transition to a low-carbon economy creates opportunities for job growth in the extraction of minerals required for clean energy technologies, such as manganese and platinum group metals. To manage this transition, the report recommends a two-pronged approach to inventory and match transferable skills to non-mining sectors and new mining sub-sectors.

The document analyzes how economic globalization and trade impact in-country inequality and social inclusion, arguing that while trade is often blamed for rising inequality, other factors like technology and political economy play more significant roles. It discusses the tension between national sovereignty for social cohesion and the multilateral rules-based order of the WTO. The author suggests that the WTO must adapt through incremental, plurilateral negotiations to remain relevant and avoid a return to mercantilist 'beggar thy neighbour' policies, while advising the South African government to balance its need for policy space with the preservation of the multilateral system.

The document outlines the role of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) in mitigating emissions leakage and competitiveness concerns resulting from asymmetrical domestic climate actions following the Paris Agreement. It suggests that BCAs can incentivize trade partners to improve their climate policies and vary in effectiveness from moderate to very high in tackling leakage.

The document examines the BRICS grouping's attempt to reshape the global order amid US isolationism, noting that while the group promotes equality and consensus, it is dominated by China, which accounts for nearly 66% of the projected 2017 BRICS GDP. It highlights internal tensions, such as the India-China rivalry in Doklam, and argues for the promotion of fairer trade and the upholding of global agreements like the Paris accord. The text concludes that BRICS must navigate growing rivalries in the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia to avoid 20th-century great power conflicts, with South Africa intending to prioritize peace and security during its 2018 chairmanship.

The document analyzes the USTR's July 17, 2017, Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA renegotiation, focusing on how these objectives relate to sustainable growth, environmental protection, and international trade and investment governance.

The report analyzes the relationship between regional trade and climate governance, focusing on the emergence of "climate clubs" and the environmental provisions within regional trade agreements to identify how such agreements can better address climate change objectives.

The document argues that consumption-based accounting provides a more nuanced view of climate responsibility than territorial accounting by attributing emissions to the final consumers of goods and services. Using data from the Eora and IOTA models, it demonstrates that high-income OECD members have increasingly imported emissions from middle-income countries between 1992 and 2010, suggesting that some territorial emission reductions in wealthy nations are the result of 'carbon leakage' to other territories.

The research analyzes how climate finance investments generate economic value added not only in recipient countries but also in third countries through international trade, termed 'spill-overs'. Using a GMRIO model, the study finds that on average 28.6% of the total economic impact spills over to other countries. The ability to retain value added varies by country, with India and Brazil retaining around 80%, while Mexico and Indonesia retain no more than two thirds. The EU is the primary beneficiary of these spill-overs. The study also identifies that different types of climate actions produce varying levels of spill-overs: renewable energy technologies often generate high spill-overs (exceeding 35% for some), whereas forestry and coastal protection generate fewer than 20%. The authors suggest that donor countries may be influenced by these spill-over prospects when allocating funds, and recipient countries should improve industrial competitiveness to retain more economic gains.

The report outlines discussions from a July 2015 workshop regarding the creation of 'low carbon clubs'—coalitions of countries, regional entities, or nonstate actors cooperating on climate objectives. Participants emphasized that such clubs must provide excludable benefits to members to incentivize participation and prevent free riding. The discussions highlighted the necessity of linking carbon pricing with technology innovation and redistribution to ensure efficiency and consumer acceptability. While a global carbon price is deemed unattainable, these clubs are seen as a way for actors to move at 'multiple speeds' complementary to multilateral frameworks like the UNFCCC and the WTO.