Planning for employment effects of climate change in the mining sector

The South African mining sector is highly vulnerable to job losses driven by biophysical climate impacts and international trade responses, with coal, gold, and platinum being the most at risk. While biophysical impacts could lead to 14,700 job losses across all sectors, international trade responses could cause between 9,400 and 52,800 losses by 2030. The report highlights that coal and lignite mining is particularly vulnerable, with expected job losses of approximately 6% by 2030. However, the transition to a low-carbon economy creates opportunities for job growth in the extraction of minerals required for clean energy technologies, such as manganese and platinum group metals. To manage this transition, the report recommends a two-pronged approach to inventory and match transferable skills to non-mining sectors and new mining sub-sectors.

• The entire South African mining sector is susceptible to job losses resulting from biophysical climate impacts, international trade responses, and mitigation/adaptation efforts. Coal and lignite mining is identified as the most vulnerable sub-sector, with an expected job loss of nearly 6% by 2030.
• Biophysical impacts—including drought, temperature changes, and extreme weather—could result in up to 14,700 job losses across all South African sectors. Within mining, the energy-intensive gold and platinum sectors are expected to lose the most direct jobs, with platinum losing 4,900 and gold 3,500, while coal is expected to lose 2,200.
• International trade responses to climate change represent the primary source of vulnerability for the mining sector. These responses, driven by a shift toward clean energy technologies and away from carbon-intensive activities, could lead to between 9,400 and 52,800 job losses by 2030. In the worst-case scenario, platinum would lose 16,800 jobs, gold 11,900, and coal 9,900.
• Mitigation and adaptation interventions can create new employment opportunities, particularly in the platinum sector, which could generate nearly 1,000 new jobs. Potential job-creating activities include building resilient infrastructure, developing operational procedures for natural disasters, and using alternative fuels like biofuels.
• The transition to a low-carbon economy increases demand for specific minerals and metals used in clean energy technologies. South Africa is well-positioned to benefit from this due to its significant reserves, including 80% of identified manganese resources and over 40% of global production of ferrochromium, PGMs, and vanadium.
• Addressing job losses requires strategic investment in skills development, as 70% of the workforce in the hardest-hit coal and gold sub-sectors are semi-skilled. The report proposes a two-pronged approach: creating an inventory of transferable and non-transferable skills and matching that inventory with the requirements of non-mining sectors.

APA

Upadhyaya, P., & Naudé, L. (2018). Planning for employment effects of climate change in the mining sector. WWF South Africa. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_2018_planning_for_employment_effects_of_cc_in_mining_sector.pdf

Chicago

Upadhyaya, Prabhat, and Louise Naudé. Planning for employment effects of climate change in the mining sector. WWF South Africa, 2018. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_2018_planning_for_employment_effects_of_cc_in_mining_sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Upadhyaya |first1=Prabhat |last2=Naudé |first2=Louise |title=Planning for employment effects of climate change in the mining sector |publisher=WWF South Africa |date=2018 |url=https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_2018_planning_for_employment_effects_of_cc_in_mining_sector.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{upadhyaya2018planning, author = {Upadhyaya, Prabhat and Naudé, Louise}, title = {{Planning for employment effects of climate change in the mining sector}}, institution = {WWF South Africa}, year = {2018}, url = {https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_2018_planning_for_employment_effects_of_cc_in_mining_sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }