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Climate Change Is Driving More Warm Summer Nights in U.S. Cities
Analysis of 243 to 247 major U.S. cities reveals that 95% have seen an increase in unusually warm summer nights since 1970, with an average increase of 24 nights per summer. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the report finds that human-caused climate change now strongly influences an average of 27 warm summer nights per year, compared to just one in the 1970s. The most severe impacts are concentrated in Florida and Puerto Rico, where some cities experience over two months of climate-driven warm nights annually. These trends exacerbate heat stress, disrupt sleep, and increase energy demand for air conditioning, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations and those in urban heat islands.
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Document type: Report
Warming U.S. Cities Face Higher Cooling Demand and Energy Bills
July 2026 was tied for the warmest July on record globally and was the all-time warmest July for the contiguous U.S. This extreme heat, driven by human-caused climate change and a strengthening El Niño, has led to a significant increase in cooling degree days—a proxy for energy demand—across most major U.S. cities. The report also details widespread drought affecting at least 70% of the contiguous U.S. and record-low sea-ice extents in both the Arctic and Antarctic.
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Document type: Briefing
How 65 Major U.S. Cities Are Responding to Urban Heat
Climate Central analysis reveals that residents in 65 of the largest U.S. cities experience an average of 8°F of additional heat due to the built environment. The document details mitigation strategies including green space, shade structures, water features, and cool pavements/roofs, while highlighting that heat exposure is disproportionately higher in historically redlined areas and low-income neighborhoods.
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Document type: Briefing
The solarisation of Pakistan’s energy economy
Between FY23 and FY25, Pakistan experienced a rapid surge in distributed solar deployment, reaching an estimated 38 GW by June 2025. This transition has driven a 21% increase in national electricity demand, which was met entirely by solar generation as grid generation slightly declined. Distributed solar has significantly increased Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7%, nearly matching the global average of 22.0%. The report highlights sector-specific impacts: in agriculture, solar tubewells have largely displaced diesel pumps; in industry, solar has filled the gap left by declining captive gas and coal use; and in the residential sector, it has unlocked suppressed demand for cooling appliances. Economically, the shift has avoided over $12 billion USD in fossil fuel imports by February 2026 and provided a cheaper alternative to grid and diesel power.
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Document type: Report
Climate Central’s Monthly Briefing Highlights from June 2026
June 2026 was the second-warmest June on record globally, with the Arctic experiencing its warmest June ever. In the U.S., 66% of the contiguous region faced abnormally dry or drought conditions by July 7, 2026, and the West and Southwest regions saw their warmest January-June period on record. A very strong El Niño is forecast to develop between October and December 2026, with an 81% probability, likely pushing global temperatures to or above 1.5C by October. Climate Central's analysis indicates human-caused climate change is a key driver of summertime warming in 91% of analyzed U.S. cities.
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Document type: Briefing
Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario
The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.
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Document type: Report
Fastest-Warming U.S. States and Cities
April 2026 was the fourth-warmest month globally on record, with the contiguous U.S. experiencing its third-warmest April. The report highlights severe drought in the Southeast U.S., record-low Western snowpack, and a persistent marine heat wave off the coasts of California and Mexico. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the analysis attributes springtime warming trends in 98% of analyzed U.S. cities to human-caused climate change, with exceptional warmth noted in Honolulu and San Juan. Forecasts indicate a high probability of a strong El Niño developing later in 2026, potentially driving global temperature anomalies above 1.8°C relative to pre-industrial levels by early 2027.
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Document type: Briefing
The Sustainable Scenario
The 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines differentiated carbon taxes and energy efficiency policies, is projected to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions while accelerating economic growth and reducing extreme poverty in Africa by 2050 and 2063.
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Document type: Research paper
Record Snow Drought Limits Western Water Supplies
March 2026 was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., characterized by a historic snow drought in the West and extreme heat that increased cooling energy demand. Globally, the month was the second-warmest on record, with Arctic sea-ice reaching a near-record low maximum. In the U.S., severe drought affected 77% of the contiguous region, while Hawaii experienced record-breaking precipitation due to Kona lows.
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Document type: Briefing
Betting big: Data centers — US now leads world in new gas power development
The United States now leads the world in gas-fired power capacity in development, with nearly 252 GW planned, driven significantly by the energy demands of AI and data centers. Globally, the pipeline for gas power grew by 31% in 2025 to 1,047 GW, though expansion is currently bottlenecked by turbine production backlogs stretching to 2030. Texas is the primary hub for this growth in the U.S., with 80.6 GW in development, nearly half of which is intended to power data centers directly.
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Document type: Research paper
Large Energy Users Want Power. Here’s How to Protect Other Ratepayers from the Costs.
The report analyzes 65 state-level tariffs to identify mechanisms that protect ratepayers from the costs of surging demand from large energy users. It highlights five key safeguards: minimum contract terms, minimum monthly billing demands, collateral requirements, exit fees, and capacity reassignment. The author argues that while these tariffs provide a foundation for fair cost allocation, they should be paired with broader strategies like grid flexibility and optimized planning to ensure reliability and affordability.
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Document type: Report
Who Bears the Weight of the Cloud?
The report argues that Brazil's digital infrastructure development is characterized by a 'narrative of progress' that obscures ecological damage and marginalizes affected communities. Through media analysis, community surveys, and official information requests, the study finds a systematic lack of environmental impact assessments and a significant gap between the government's 'green' rhetoric and the reality of resource consumption. In Rio Grande do Sul, the Scala AI City project is situated in a flood-prone area, while in Ceará, the TikTok-partnered project by Casa dos Ventos faces opposition from the Anacé Indigenous community over land and water rights. The study concludes that the 'burden of the cloud' falls disproportionately on vulnerable populations through a combination of regulatory vacuum and strategic disinformation.
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Document type: Case study
Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat
The Middle East, particularly Gulf nations, is positioned to export its advanced district cooling infrastructure and engineering know-how to regions facing escalating heat crises, such as Europe, Asia, and Africa. As global cooling demand is projected to triple by 2050, the document suggests that the region can redefine its geopolitical role from an oil and gas provider to a leader in climate adaptation and green infrastructure finance.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Substituting the Future for the Past: A Decomposition Analysis Using MarketSim
The research argues that government models for offshore oil and gas leasing often underestimate climate impacts by assuming continued fossil fuel reliance and ignoring climate initiatives. Using the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s Market Simulation Model, the authors demonstrate that accounting for increased substitution between fossil fuels and renewables leads to more elastic energy demand and significantly higher projected net climate effects from leasing policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Solar BRICS: Emerging economies now lead the world's clean energy race
BRICS nations now generate over half of the world's solar power, driven primarily by China, India, and Brazil. In 2024, these countries accounted for 51% of global solar electricity generation, with China alone contributing 39%. Solar power met 37% of the total increase in electricity generation across BRICS members in 2024, contributing to a total clean energy share of 70% for new generation growth. While China, India, and Brazil show strong continued growth in 2025, other members like Russia, Indonesia, and Egypt lag in solar deployment or remain dependent on fossil fuels.
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Document type: Report
Grids for data centres: ambitious grid planning can win Europe’s AI race
The report argues that proactive grid planning is essential for Europe to meet its goal of tripling data centre capacity and capturing the economic benefits of AI. It highlights a shift in investment from traditional hubs (FLAP-D markets) to regions with lower grid congestion, such as the Nordics and Southern Europe. The analysis suggests that innovative connection agreements, data centre flexibility, and strategic spatial planning can significantly reduce connection wait times and infrastructure costs.
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Document type: Report
Grids for data centres
The report argues that while the EU aims to triple data centre capacity within five to seven years, grid congestion in traditional hubs like Dublin, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam is creating a primary barrier to growth. This is shifting investment toward markets with better grid preparedness, such as the Nordics and Belgium. Data centres are identified as unique grid challenges due to their large, localised, and continuous loads. Despite their economic benefits—including GDP growth and job creation—forecasts suggest the EU will likely only double its capacity by 2030, falling short of its target.
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Document type: Report
Cities in Transition
The 'Cities in Transition' research argues that meeting emissions targets requires more than transitioning to renewables; it necessitates a reduction in total energy demand through urban planning. Using the city of Winnipeg as a focus, the study employs the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology to show that compact, walkable, and mixed-use infill development reduces emissions and municipal infrastructure costs compared to car-oriented sprawl. The research identifies three primary barriers to this transition: NIMBY opposition to infill, outdated governance models, and the high financial costs associated with urban sprawl.
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Document type: Executive summary
Cities in Transition
The report examines the link between urban sprawl and high energy consumption, arguing that current energy policies overlook the role of urban design. It advocates for "complete communities"—dense, walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods—as a primary strategy for emissions reduction. Using the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology, the report compares car-centric and sustainable transportation scenarios in Winnipeg, finding that sustainable shifts offer significantly higher net benefits and a superior benefit-to-cost ratio. It identifies key barriers such as NIMBYism, flawed municipal governance, and the financial instability caused by sprawl, while proposing solutions including zoning reform, parking policy changes, and new municipal revenue tools.
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Document type: Report
Fastest-Warming Seasons
Climate Central analyzed 245 U.S. locations and found that winter is the fastest-warming season for 76% of these sites, particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and Ohio Valley. In the western U.S., fall and spring were the fastest-warming seasons for 31 locations, while some West and Northwest areas experienced the most rapid summer warming. These trends contribute to disrupted snowfall, earlier snowmelt, increased wildfire intensity, and longer pest and allergy seasons.
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Document type: Fact sheet