Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat

The Middle East, particularly Gulf nations, is positioned to export its advanced district cooling infrastructure and engineering know-how to regions facing escalating heat crises, such as Europe, Asia, and Africa. As global cooling demand is projected to triple by 2050, the document suggests that the region can redefine its geopolitical role from an oil and gas provider to a leader in climate adaptation and green infrastructure finance.

• The Middle East, specifically the Gulf region, has developed systemic expertise in district cooling due to extreme temperatures routinely exceeding 45°C in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These centralized systems are more energy-efficient than traditional air conditioning and reduce peak load pressures on electricity grids.
• Global cooling demand is projected to triple by 2050, creating significant risks for decarbonization and energy stability. In Southeast Asia, only 15% of buildings have air conditioning, and cooling is expected to represent 20% of the region's total energy demand by 2050, peaking at 30%.
• Europe faces a structural mismatch because its energy systems are designed for central heating and rely on outdated, decentralized cooling. This creates risks for energy security and affordability, especially when rising temperatures coincide with the need to replenish gas storage.
• The document proposes 'cooling diplomacy' as a geopolitical strategy for Gulf nations to diversify their economies and build strategic alliances. This would involve using sovereign wealth funds, export credit instruments, and 'cooling-as-a-service' models to deploy infrastructure in emerging markets across Africa and South Asia.

APA

Yellen, D., & Covatariu, A. (2025). Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/cooling-diplomacy-and-the-middle-easts-role-in-the-new-geopolitics-of-heat/

Chicago

Yellen, David, and Andrei Covatariu. Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat. Clean Air Task Force, 2025. https://www.catf.us/resource/cooling-diplomacy-and-the-middle-easts-role-in-the-new-geopolitics-of-heat/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yellen |first1=David |last2=Covatariu |first2=Andrei |title=Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=20 October 2025 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/cooling-diplomacy-and-the-middle-easts-role-in-the-new-geopolitics-of-heat/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yellen2025cooling, author = {Yellen, David and Covatariu, Andrei}, title = {{Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/cooling-diplomacy-and-the-middle-easts-role-in-the-new-geopolitics-of-heat/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }