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The project aims to protect 22 surface Strategic Water Source Areas (SWSAs) that supply 50% of the region's water. It proposes a $20 million investment ($10 million from GCF) to implement climate-responsive mapping, strengthen regulatory frameworks, rehabilitate catchments upstream of water infrastructure, and develop natural capital accounts. The initiative targets 5.8 million direct beneficiaries and seeks to mitigate risks from increasing droughts, rainfall variability, and invasive alien plants.

The IAI Executive Directorate's 2019-2020 report details progress in transdisciplinary research, capacity building, and open science, while noting significant disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Key achievements include the launch of the Science, Technology, and Policy (STeP) fellowship program in Argentina and the establishment of a Memorandum of Understanding with the Organization of American States (OAS). The report also highlights efforts to align scientific agendas with human systems and the development of a flexible funding mechanism for the Americas in collaboration with the Belmont Forum.

The briefing analyzes the intersection of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, deteriorating governance, and nuclear-armed geopolitical tensions in South Asia. It argues that these converging risks create non-linear dynamics that could lead to a systemic collapse or 'regime shift,' posing significant spillover risks to the global international system.

The document describes how rising temperatures and forest management issues are increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfire smoke waves in the Western U.S. It highlights the danger of PM2.5 particles, which can enter the bloodstream and exacerbate respiratory conditions, potentially increasing the risk of death from COVID-19. The text also notes that other pollutants, such as industrial emissions and tear gas, further increase susceptibility to respiratory infections.

The National Adaptation Plan Framework for Botswana provides a high-level strategic guide for integrating climate change adaptation into national and subnational development planning. It outlines a multi-sectoral approach emphasizing horizontal and vertical integration, ecosystem-based adaptation, and community-centered planning. The framework proposes a governance structure led by a National Climate Change Unit (NCCU) and a National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC), while prioritizing the needs of youth, women, and vulnerable groups. It also details strategies for mobilizing domestic and international climate finance and aligning the NAP with existing policies like Vision 2036 and NDP 11.

The document examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change concurrently degrade the readiness of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). It highlights the financial and operational strain caused by severe weather, specifically citing the $3.6 billion in damages to Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune from Hurricane Florence. The author contends that the DoD should apply the same decisive adaptation strategies used to combat COVID-19 to mitigate long-term climate risks, such as recurrent flooding and wildfires, to ensure national security and deter adversaries.

The document details a climate-smart agricultural model in Maharashtra, India, that empowers rural women by combining sustainable farming techniques, financial support, and capacity building. Since 2015, 41,000 women have adopted the model, managing 30,000 acres of dry land through organic farming and water conservation. The approach has increased crop yields by 25%, raised incomes by 25%, and saved households approximately US$497 annually. Key components include the use of local seeds, biopesticides, drip irrigation, and the creation of a community-resilient fund. The model has since scaled to over 60,000 women across 810 villages in Maharashtra and has been replicated in Bihar and Odisha.

Turkey is pursuing a civilian nuclear energy program to diversify its energy sources and meet rapidly growing electricity demand, primarily through the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant developed with Russia under a 'build-own-operate' (BOO) model. While Turkey adheres to international nonproliferation regimes and collaborates with the IAEA, the BOO model creates risks regarding regulatory oversight, information asymmetry, and potential safety compromises to reduce costs. Additionally, Turkey faces significant climate security threats, including drought and sea-level rise, which may impact the operation of its coastal nuclear sites. The program also reflects Turkey's complex strategic balancing between Russia and NATO allies.

President João Lourenço has made progress in opening political space and fighting corruption since taking office in 2017, but these gains are offset by a severe economic crisis and the politicisation of the military. While the anti-corruption drive has targeted the former Dos Santos elite, it is accused of lacking transparency and being used for political punishment. Angola faces a deepening recession, with oil production declining and public debt reaching 90% of GDP, leading to austerity measures that increase social tension and poverty. The report highlights risks including potential social convulsion in urban centres, low morale in the armed forces, and ongoing factionalism within the ruling MPLA party.

The WWF-US Emergency Amazon Fire Fund raised approximately $1.5 million to provide firefighting equipment, medical supplies, and food to local civil society organizations and Indigenous peoples in Brazil and Bolivia following the 2019 fire season. The report highlights a vicious cycle where deforestation and climate change intensify droughts, increasing fire risks and reducing the Amazon's capacity to act as a carbon sink. In Brazil, the fund supported the Victoria Amazon Foundation in the Amazonas region to train brigades and conduct prevention workshops. In Bolivia, the fund provided critical water, food, and medical supplies to remote communities in the Santa Cruz and Chiquitano Dry Forest regions, where fires impacted over 5 million acres of forest and displaced families.

The report identifies systemic gender inequalities and capacity gaps in Vietnam's climate and agricultural sectors, proposing a Gender Action Plan (GAP) to ensure equal access to water, climate information, and credit for vulnerable smallholders.

The 2010s saw a significant surge in billion-dollar disasters in the U.S., accounting for nearly half of all such events and costs since 1980. The decade recorded 119 billion-dollar disasters with costs exceeding $800 billion, with notable spikes in central states like Texas, Illinois, and Missouri. The document links these trends to climate change—specifically warmer oceans and a wetter atmosphere—and notes that pre-disaster adaptation spending saves an average of $6 in recovery costs.

The report investigates the feasibility of shifting specialty crop production from California to the mid-Mississippi Delta region due to climate-driven uncertainties in California. While the Delta offers fertile soil, abundant water, and economic development opportunities, it faces hurdles including high humidity, pest pressure, a lack of specialty crop infrastructure, and labor shortages. The document outlines a plan for Phase II, focusing on seed varietal testing, innovative financing, and the design of a pilot program to diversify the region's commodity-heavy agricultural base.

The proposal seeks USD 685,000 over 36 months to reduce climate vulnerability in Moldova's agriculture sector. It aims to establish gender-responsive governance, conduct impact analyses and crop simulation modelling, identify technology needs, and develop community-based adaptation action plans. The project will be implemented by the FAO in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, Regional Development and Environment (MARDE) and will complement the broader National Adaptation Plan (NAP-2) process.

The analysis finds that anthropogenic climate change has significantly increased the probability of extreme fire weather and heatwaves in southeastern Australia, while having no attributable trend in dry extremes. Specifically, the probability of a Fire Weather Index as high as in 2019/20 has increased by more than a factor of four since 1900. Heatwaves of similar intensity are now approximately 10 times more likely than they were around 1900. While climate change increased the overall risk, the specific severity of the 2019 event was further amplified by natural variability, specifically the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, challenging the narrative of mass international 'climate refugee' flows. It posits that migration is an active resilience strategy used by households to diversify income and spread risk, though the most vulnerable are often trapped by a lack of resources. The brief highlights the prevalence of internal migration, the risks of unplanned urbanisation, and the need for African policymakers to develop governance frameworks tailored to local realities rather than relying on international models.

The study evaluates the relationship between three drought indicators and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (1989-2014) using multilevel logistic regression. It finds that while all three measures are positively associated with conflict, the strength of the relationship increases as the measure moves from meteorological (SPEI) to agricultural (NDVI) and finally to socio-economic (EM-DAT) impacts. Specifically, socio-economic droughts approximately double the odds of experiencing violent conflict. However, the author notes that the NDVI effect may be driven by spatial correlation—where conflicts and vegetation loss occur in the same land types—rather than a direct temporal causal link. The study concludes that preventing meteorological droughts from escalating into socio-economic disasters could potentially reduce communal conflict risks.

The research examines how the effect of anomalous rainfall (excess and scarce) on violent, state-based conflict varies based on societal vulnerability factors. Using a causal forest model on global grid-cell data, the author finds that while rainfall variability generally has a small effect on conflict, this effect is context-specific. Scarce rainfall is more likely to increase conflict risk in communities with high agricultural employment and poor governance (low SHDI and GDP). Excess rainfall's effect is more complex, showing higher risk in areas with high population density, low globalization, low democracy, and low GDP, but contrary to expectations, it showed smaller effects in areas with high political exclusion or greater distance to the capital.

The report describes the implementation of a groundwater monitoring network in Newlands and the Epping/Airport Industria areas of Cape Town. It combines desktop research from databases like WARMS and the National Groundwater Archive with field-based 'groundtruthing' via hydrocensus surveys of private borehole owners. The project identifies the geological characteristics of the Table Mountain Group and Cape Flats aquifers and deploys Solinst Leveloggers to track water levels. The findings highlight a significant increase in private borehole drilling between 2015 and 2019 and note concerns among users regarding water quality and the sustainability of abstraction levels.

The document highlights the critical risk that unsustainable groundwater abstraction poses to Cape Town's water resilience and ecosystems, particularly following a severe drought between 2015 and 2019. It details a citizen science pilot project revealing a high number of unregistered boreholes in areas like Newlands and Epping. To address these gaps, the Table Mountain Water Source Partnership was formed in 2020 to integrate government, private sector, and community efforts in monitoring groundwater levels and quality.