Search Climate Insights Directory

Peru is the world's largest producer of fishmeal and fish oil (FMFO), primarily using anchoveta to supply global aquaculture. The report argues that the industry is plagued by systemic corruption, including the underreporting of catches and the illegal harvesting of juvenile fish. It highlights a 'phantom fishmeal' gap where exports consistently exceed reported production. The document also details severe environmental degradation in Chimbote and the diversion of fish intended for human consumption to animal feed. Furthermore, it exposes how major producers like TASA and Austral Group violated health protocols during the Covid-19 pandemic. The report concludes that certification bodies like MarinTrust provide 'greenwash' for unsustainable practices and calls for a phase-out of FMFO in aquaculture.

The 2015-16 drought in Ethiopia, exacerbated by El Niño, was an extremely rare event that affected 9.7 million people and exceeded the mitigation capacity of existing national and international response systems.

A scientific study assessed the record-breaking rainfall in Chennai on 1 December 2015, which saw up to 494 mm of rain and caused US$3 bn in economic losses. The analysis concluded that no measurable effect of human-caused emissions was detected for this specific one-day event, attributing this lack of detection to the masking effects of aerosol pollution over India.

A scientific analysis of the December 2015 Chennai floods found no detectable effect of human-induced climate change on the extreme one-day rainfall event, likely due to the masking effect of aerosol pollution in the region.

The 2015–16 drought in Ethiopia was an exceptionally rare event, likely occurring once every few hundred years in central and north-eastern regions, exacerbated by El Niño. It affected 9.7 million people, causing over 75% crop loss in most affected areas and the death of one million livestock. While the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) and government resources provided critical support, the event demonstrated that existing preparedness systems are limited when facing very extreme events. However, outcomes were better than the droughts of 1973 and 1984, indicating improved resilience.

The document provides a guide on Global Climate Models (GCMs), distinguishing them from weather forecasts and explaining how they use socio-economic scenarios to project long-term climate trends. It emphasizes that while GCMs have coarse resolution and struggle with localized rainfall patterns—especially in Africa due to data gaps and complex features like the Congo Basin—they are sufficient for strategic planning over 5 to 40 years. The brief warns against the 'myth' that downscaled projections are inherently better, noting that additional manipulation can increase uncertainty.

The document examines South Africa's response to the 2015/2016 drought, the worst in 35 years, noting a systemic tendency toward remedial rather than preventative action. It highlights critical gaps in meteorological data gathering due to theft and vandalism of monitoring stations, and the failure of many municipalities to adopt water conservation strategies. The authors propose the adoption of a national drought policy, the updating of computer-generated operating rules for water supply, and the use of citizen-science data repositories to enhance forecasting capabilities.

The Global Resilience Partnership highlights the severe humanitarian risks posed by a strong El Niño phase, citing specific crises in Ethiopia, Indonesia, and India, and advocates for adaptive measures such as early warning systems and innovative financing.

The study investigated the December 1, 2015, rainfall event in Chennai, where some stations recorded up to 494 mm of rain in 24 hours, causing an estimated US $3 billion in economic costs. Using observational data and regional climate models, researchers found no detectable effect of human-induced climate change on the probability of this extreme one-day rainfall. The analysis suggests that the cooling effect of aerosols in the western Bay of Bengal likely counteracted greenhouse gas warming, while non-anthropogenic factors, such as El Niño and sea surface temperature anomalies, played a more significant role.

The document examines climate information services in BRACED countries, noting that while access is increasing, end-users struggle with data quality, inappropriate spatial scales, and poor communication. It details regional weather drivers like the ITCZ in Africa and the monsoon in Asia, and argues for a service-oriented approach that integrates localized, two-way communication into resilience programming to improve decision-making at the community level.

The analysis estimates that the 2015 global temperature anomaly was 1.05ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. This warming is primarily attributed to anthropogenic forcing, with smaller contributions from El Niño and solar activity. The year 2015 is identified as likely the first to cross both the 1ºC temperature anomaly and the 400 ppm CO2 thresholds.

The 2015 drought in north and central Ethiopia was an extremely rare event, estimated to occur once every few hundred years in the current climate. Analysis by World Weather Attribution indicates that a strong El Niño enhanced the drought, making it significantly drier during the Kiremt season. However, the study found no conclusive evidence that human-induced climate change influenced the event, as results from various climate models were inconsistent and spanned a range from the drought being less likely to more likely. Despite the severity of the event, which affected nearly 10 million people and caused significant crop and livestock losses, the impact was lower than droughts in 1973 and 1984, suggesting improved national resilience.

The report links the expansion of the palm oil industry in Southeast Asia to the use of fire for land preparation, which frequently results in uncontrollable landscape fires. These fires, particularly those on drained peatlands, release hazardous particulate matter that causes an estimated 110,000 deaths annually in the region. The document highlights the exacerbating role of climate-driven droughts and the significant economic losses in tourism and industry, while calling for a global shift toward deforestation-free and peat-free palm oil production.

The report identifies significant climate risks to human health in Nicaragua, primarily driven by the interaction of extreme weather events—such as floods and droughts—with high social vulnerability, particularly lack of clean water and sanitation. Statistical analysis shows seasonal patterns for diarrhœa, dengue, and leptospirosis linked to rainfall and temperature. While Nicaragua has institutional frameworks for disaster risk and climate change, the report finds a lack of inter-institutional coordination with the health sector and deficiencies in data monitoring. Recommendations include expanding water and sanitation infrastructure, improving health services, and integrating climate risk into national health policies.

The report examines the vulnerability of Peru's agricultural sector to climate hazards, particularly in the Junín and Piura regions. It identifies El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a primary driver of droughts, floods, and frost, which significantly impact crop yields for maize, potatoes, and fruits. While Peru has established disaster risk management (SINAGERD) and climate change frameworks (MINAM), the report finds a lack of formal coordination between these two communities and gaps in localized climate data. Key recommendations include reviving ancestral agricultural practices, improving irrigation and water storage, diversifying livelihoods, and integrating disaster risk management with climate change adaptation into a single national programme.

The project introduced soybean producers in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil to seasonal climate forecasts and a crop growth model to evaluate adaptive management options, such as varying planting dates and soybean varieties, under different El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios. To ensure the delivery of trustable, science-based information, the project collaborated with local cooperatives, three of which funded weather stations. The resulting decision support tools for yield and climate risks were adapted for Paraguay and planned for Rio Grande do Sul, utilizing a probabilistic approach to climate forecasts and a web-based information system.

The project investigates how climate variability and land use changes affect irrigated agriculture, specifically examining the Rio Segundo basin in Argentina and the Maipo river basin in Chile. Findings indicate that in Rio Segundo, agricultural expansion was driven by globalization and increased rainfall, with soy bean area growing nearly 18 times. In the Maipo river basin, analysis suggests that permanent water rights could fail to meet increased demand under global warming in 40-50% of cases, compared to a current failure rate of 6-20%.

The document describes the use of IPCC emissions scenarios (A1fi and B1) and three global climate models (GFDL CM2.1, HadCM3, and PCM) to project climate variables in the U.S. Midwest. It details the distinction between higher-emissions paths, leading to 940 ppm of CO2 by 2100, and lower-emissions paths, leading to 550 ppm. The briefing notes that while these models reproduce historical regional climate features, they may be conservative as they do not capture recent rapid winter warming in the Midwest or the accelerated melting of polar ice sheets.

The briefing examines reports of a 'soft landing' exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe involving Emmerson Mnangagwa and General Vitalis Gava Zvinavashe, which aimed for a government of national unity and free elections. This political maneuvering is driven by a severe economic crisis characterized by an 11% contraction in the economy, hyperinflation, and a food crisis exacerbated by the El Niño climatic effect and failed agrarian reforms. The document details the ethnic factionalism within ZANU-PF, specifically the rivalry between the Karanga group (led by Mnangagwa) and the Zezuru group (led by Solomon Mujuru), suggesting that the economic decline is undermining Mugabe's power base and intensifying the contest for presidential succession.

The sixth meeting of the IAI Conference of the Parties (CoP) focused on administrative governance, financial restructuring, and the approval of operational plans. Key outcomes included an amendment to the IAI Creation Agreement to modify the structure of voluntary contributions for operating expenses, the authorization for the Executive Directorate to manage donations from external scientific and technical organizations, and the approval of the 1999/2000 basic budget. The CoP also reviewed a feasibility study by the World Meteorological Organization for an El Niño center in Ecuador and designated Mexico as the host for the seventh CoP meeting in 2000.