SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS

The briefing examines reports of a 'soft landing' exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe involving Emmerson Mnangagwa and General Vitalis Gava Zvinavashe, which aimed for a government of national unity and free elections. This political maneuvering is driven by a severe economic crisis characterized by an 11% contraction in the economy, hyperinflation, and a food crisis exacerbated by the El Niño climatic effect and failed agrarian reforms. The document details the ethnic factionalism within ZANU-PF, specifically the rivalry between the Karanga group (led by Mnangagwa) and the Zezuru group (led by Solomon Mujuru), suggesting that the economic decline is undermining Mugabe's power base and intensifying the contest for presidential succession.

• Reports emerged in early January 2003 of a 'soft landing' exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe, involving the formation of a government of national unity and the staging of free and fair elections. The plan allegedly involved Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa and General Vitalis Gava Zvinavashe meeting with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai in December 2002, though both Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe denied involvement and Mugabe dismissed the idea as "foolhardy" and "counter-revolutionary".
• Zimbabwe is experiencing a severe economic collapse, with the economy shrinking by 11% over the previous year. This crisis is marked by a massive divergence between the official exchange rate (Zim $55 to US $1) and the parallel market (Zim $1,800 to US $1), fuel shortages, and the failure of the agrarian reform programme to replace evicted white farmers with self-sufficient small-scale farmers.
• A severe food crisis in Zimbabwe has been caused by the combined effects of the government's land programme and the El Niño climatic effect.
• Internal ZANU-PF dynamics are split along ethno-linguistic lines, primarily between the Karanga group, associated with Emmerson Mnangagwa and General Zvinavashe, and the Zezuru group, led by Solomon Mujuru. The Zezuru faction includes influential figures such as Air Marshal Perence Shiri, Lieutenant General Constantine Chiwenga, and Dr Sydney Sekeramayi.

APA

Maroleng, C. (2003). SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng

Chicago

Maroleng, Chris. SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS. Institute for Security Studies, 2003. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maroleng |first1=Chris |title=SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=February 2003 |url=https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maroleng2003situation, author = {Maroleng, Chris}, title = {{SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2003}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }