SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS

This February 2003 briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the internal power struggles within Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party and the reported attempts to negotiate an exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe amidst a severe economic collapse.

• Reports emerged in early January 2003 of a 'soft landing' exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe, allegedly coordinated by Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa and armed forces Chief-of-Staff General Vitalis Gava Zvinavashe. The proposed plan involved Mugabe relinquishing power, the creation of a government of national unity, and the holding of free and fair elections. Both Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe denied involvement, and President Mugabe dismissed the idea as "foolhardy" and "counter-revolutionary".
• Zimbabwe is experiencing a severe economic collapse characterized by a shrinking economy—estimated by economist John Robertson to have decreased by 11% over the previous year—and a widening gap between the official exchange rate (Zim $55 to US $1) and the parallel market (Zim $1,800 to US $1). This crisis is attributed to bad policies, fuel shortages, and an ill-executed agrarian reform programme that undermined commercial farming. Additionally, a drought linked to the El Niño climatic effect has resulted in a severe food crisis.
• The internal dynamics of ZANU-PF are split along ethno-linguistic lines between the Zezuru and Karanga groups. The dominant Zezuru faction is led by President Mugabe and includes figures such as retired Lieutenant General Tapfumanei Solomon Mujuru, Air Marshal Perence Shiri, Lieutenant General Constantine Chiwenga, and Minister of Defense Dr Sydney Sekeramayi. The Karanga group, including Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe, is viewed as a threatening third force by the Zezuru camp.
• There are indications of a rift between President Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa, suggested by the fact that Mugabe may not have been fully informed of exit negotiations involving British and South African intermediaries. Information Minister Prof. Jonathan Moyo further characterized the Mnangagwa plan as a "coup d’etat". The potential retirement of General Zvinavashe is expected to further weaken Mnangagwa's support within the defense force.

APA

Maroleng, C. (2003). SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng

Chicago

Maroleng, Chris. SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS. Institute for Security Studies, 2003. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maroleng |first1=Chris |title=SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=February 2003 |url=https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maroleng2003situation, author = {Maroleng, Chris}, title = {{SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2003}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-zimbabwe-smoke-screens-and-mirrors-chris-maroleng}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }