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The study analyzes 285 conflict episodes to determine how natural resources affect the duration of postconflict peace. It identifies three primary mechanisms: distribution, financing, and aggravation. The findings indicate that while natural resource conflicts generally show shorter peace periods bivariately, only conflicts driven by disagreements over the distribution of resources and revenues significantly increase the risk of recurrence in a multivariate analysis. This suggests that resource-related grievances are a more persistent driver of conflict relapse than the mere opportunity to finance warfare.

The study finds that climate-related natural disasters in India have a conditional and generally weak relationship with violent conflict. While disasters can increase the risk of politically motivated violence in areas with low literacy (low development), they are associated with an increased risk of riots in areas with higher literacy. However, the author concludes that these statistical relations are not substantively large enough to suggest that post-disaster violence is a major problem in India, as the direct damages from disasters likely dwarf the damages from ensuing unrest.

The research evaluates three dimensions of state capacity—coercion (revenue extraction), co-optation (government spending), and cooperation (trust in institutions)—to determine their impact on the onset of civil war. Using a global dataset, the authors find that high government spending and trustworthy institutions (proxied by contract-intensive money) are significant predictors of civil peace, whereas coercive capacity (relative political capacity) has little predictive power when controlling for other factors. The findings suggest that civil peace is co-produced through social cooperation and the provision of public goods rather than through state repression.

The study finds that high urban population growth is significantly associated with increased social unrest, but only in peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts). In contrast, population growth in primary urban cores is negatively associated with unrest. The researchers found no evidence that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors such as nearby droughts; in fact, droughts hitting urban areas directly were found to be negatively associated with unrest.

The research finds a strong positive association between overall globalization and its three components—economic, social, and political—and the respect for basic human rights, contradicting 'race to the bottom' theories.

The research examines the long-term effects of the 1994 Rwandan genocide on primary school dropout rates, specifically analyzing whether living near genocide-targeted areas increases dropout risk and if development aid mitigates this effect. Using a sample of 63,892 respondents and spatial data, the study finds that while proximity to genocide events alone does not significantly increase dropout probability, the presence of aid projects in those areas reduces the likelihood of dropout by 20%. This effect is most pronounced in low-income households, where the probability of dropout decreases by 10.6%. The study also identifies that child-headed households and rural residence are associated with higher dropout rates, while female students and those with educated household heads are less likely to drop out.

The research argues that ethnic terrorism declines when governments implement accommodation strategies, such as granting political power or regional autonomy to marginalized groups. Using a dataset linking the Global Terrorism Database to the Ethnic Power Relations project, the authors find that moves away from active discrimination significantly reduce the expected number of terrorist attacks. While transitions to democracy generally reduce ethnic terrorism, the effect is heterogeneous, with some Asian countries showing increased activity. The study also notes that while overall terrorism declines after accommodation, attacks by splinter groups may increase as hardliners reject settlements.

The study finds a significant negative relationship between local agricultural price indices and the risk of violent conflict in Africa. Using a meso-level approach with a spatial-temporal grid, the author argues that falling agricultural prices lower the opportunity costs for rural populations, thereby facilitating rebel recruitment and civilian support. The results suggest that negative price shocks have a more detrimental effect on conflict risk than positive shocks have a mitigating effect, supporting the 'opportunity cost' mechanism over the 'state capacity' explanation.

The authors argue that non-violent direct action is more effective at undermining autocracies and significantly more likely to lead to democratic transitions than violent conflict. Using a multinomial logit model for the period 1900-2004, the study finds that non-violent campaigns substantially increase the probability of democratization, particularly when the state has a high proportion of democratic neighbors. Conversely, violent direct action is less effective at destabilizing regimes overall and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely. The research suggests that non-violence promotes power dispersion and elite defection, whereas violence tends to centralize power and justify further repression.

The research investigates the relationship between capitalism and domestic peace, arguing that economies favorable to free enterprise reduce the risk of civil war by increasing the opportunity costs of rebellion. Using the Index of Economic Freedom and UCDP/PRIO conflict data from 1970–2005, the authors find that higher economic freedom is associated with a lower risk of conflict onset, a result that remains significant even when controlling for per capita income, institutional quality, and state repression. The study concludes that market-friendly policies do not undermine state autonomy to maintain peace, contrary to some globalization skeptics.

The research examines the intersection of gender norms and economic necessity in Keti Bandar, a fishing town in Sindh, Pakistan. Despite high female labor force participation (50.5%), a strong belief persists that men should be the primary providers. The authors argue that women's empowerment in this context is derived from altruism—supporting their husbands and families—rather than from a desire for individual autonomy or resistance to patriarchal norms. This sense of empowerment is facilitated by the fact that the male breadwinner norm is maintained in discourse even as it is broken in practice. The study also highlights how environmental degradation and globalization have increased economic distress, forcing women into the labor market, while their mobility remains constrained by concerns over 'honor' and safety in public spaces.

The research paper analyzes individual-level support for the 2001 Framework Agreement in Macedonia using a geo-referenced survey from 2005. The authors test whether local ethnic settlement patterns or proximity to conflict zones influence reconciliation preferences. The primary finding is that ethnic identity is the dominant factor, with ethnic Albanians strongly supporting the agreement and ethnic Macedonians predominantly opposing it, while contextual factors like local ethnic parity or distance to violence have only feeble or insignificant effects.

The study finds that sub-national analysis provides stronger support for the resource scarcity-conflict nexus than global studies. Specifically, organized armed conflict is more likely in Indian states with scarce productive land and declining agricultural wages. Youth bulges are a consistent predictor of all three forms of political violence, with the risk of armed conflict increasing further in states with high male-to-female ratios. While linguistic fractionalization and Hindu relative growth are linked to armed conflict, and religious heterogeneity and non-Hindu majorities are linked to riots, the study finds little evidence that rural inequality or urban growth rates drive political violence.

The paper finds that while low Human Development Index (HDI) levels predict aid for excluded group-majority provinces, overall aid distribution is significantly biased in favour of the politically dominant Christian lowlanders. Previous exposure to armed conflict increases the likelihood of new projects only in Christian-majority provinces, and previous disaster exposure is a weak, sometimes negative, predictor of aid across all provinces.

The study finds that rural-urban migration itself does not cause urban violence. Instead, lethal urban political violence is associated with the socioeconomic marginalization of rural-urban migrants—specifically relative deprivation in terms of household assets and access to public services—as well as unequal access to education within the city population.

The study finds that regions in Sub-Saharan Africa with high levels of both vertical and horizontal socioeconomic inequality are significantly more prone to violent communal conflicts. Specifically, the marginalization of the largest ethnic group in a region is a key driver of violence. The authors argue that the exclusionary nature of the African state and elite incentives to mobilize communal identities transform economic grievances into violent clashes over resources and political power.

The study finds that one in three Ukrainians experienced food insecurity in the weeks following the 2022 Russian invasion. Both direct military attacks on individuals and indirect attacks on their municipalities significantly predict higher levels of food insecurity, with direct victimization having the strongest effect. These findings persist regardless of age, education, or socioeconomic status, though indirect attacks on municipalities were found to have a more adverse impact on men.

The research analyzes UNSC resolutions in self-determination disputes to determine what drives the UN's decision to take preventive action. The authors find that the UN is significantly more likely to intervene in nonviolent disputes that have a history of violence or are located in regions with a high potential for contagion. While the UN employs a variety of tools—most notably diplomacy and condemnation—political constraints, particularly the interests of the P-5 members, limit its ability to act based on specific dispute-level characteristics like factionalism or economic status.

The report 'Taking the Pulse 2019' identifies a total financing need of $6.4 billion by 2030 to achieve SDG 7 in Madagascar, the Philippines, and Uganda. It breaks down these needs by technology—mini-grids, standalone solar systems, and improved cookstoves—and by capital type, including grants, equity, debt, and affordability gap funding. The analysis highlights that while grid electrification remains important, off-grid solutions are essential for reaching isolated populations. The report provides specific projections for each country, noting that Uganda has seen success in standalone solar, the Philippines relies heavily on mini-grids due to its geography, and Madagascar faces severe infrastructure and affordability challenges. It concludes with policy recommendations for development partners, governments, and investors to mobilize the necessary capital and create enabling regulatory environments.

The Spatial Database of Planted Trees (SDPT) version 2.0 provides a global spatial differentiation between planted forests, tree crops, and natural forests. In 2020, the database identified approximately 264 million hectares of planted forests (6.5% of total tree cover) and 65 million hectares of tree crops. The update includes new carbon removal factors ranging from 0.43 to 15 t C/ha/yr for planted forests and 0.43 to 11 t C/ha/yr for tree crops, and incorporates additional data for Brazil, Cambodia, Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana in version 2.1.