Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes?

The research analyzes UNSC resolutions in self-determination disputes to determine what drives the UN's decision to take preventive action. The authors find that the UN is significantly more likely to intervene in nonviolent disputes that have a history of violence or are located in regions with a high potential for contagion. While the UN employs a variety of tools—most notably diplomacy and condemnation—political constraints, particularly the interests of the P-5 members, limit its ability to act based on specific dispute-level characteristics like factionalism or economic status.

• The UN is significantly more likely to engage in preventive action in nonviolent self-determination disputes that have a prior history of violence.
• Regional contagion risk is a strong driver of UN intervention; the UN is more likely to act in nonviolent disputes when nearby states are experiencing internal armed conflict.
• The UN's response varies by the type of tool used: while history of violence strongly predicts all forms of intervention, regional contagion is primarily associated with 'lighter' actions like diplomacy and condemnation rather than the deployment of force.
• Political constraints, specifically the veto power and interests of the P-5 (China, France, the UK, the US, and Russia), severely limit UN action in disputes involving those states or their allies.
• Dispute-level characteristics—such as the number of factions, the presence of neighboring kin groups, or the level of democracy—do not strongly predict whether the UNSC will take preventive action.
• Diplomacy is a central and frequently used tool in the UN's preventive toolkit for self-determination disputes, reflecting a practical application of 'preventative diplomacy'.
• The UN rarely utilizes sanctions as a proactive tool in self-determination disputes, making them less common than new authorizations of force.
• The UN does not merely react to existing violence but acts proactively in nonviolent disputes to prevent the outbreak of civil war.

APA

White, P. B., Cunningham, D. E., & Beardsley, K. (n.d.). Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb58a08f-e5a5-41a7-9c3b-d60c0e585533/Where when and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

White, Peter B, David E Cunningham, and Kyle Beardsley. Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes? Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb58a08f-e5a5-41a7-9c3b-d60c0e585533/Where when and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=White |first1=Peter B |last2=Cunningham |first2=David E |last3=Beardsley |first3=Kyle |title=Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb58a08f-e5a5-41a7-9c3b-d60c0e585533/Where when and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{whitendwhere, author = {White, Peter B and Cunningham, David E and Beardsley, Kyle}, title = {{Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb58a08f-e5a5-41a7-9c3b-d60c0e585533/Where when and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }