Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa

The study finds that high urban population growth is significantly associated with increased social unrest, but only in peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts). In contrast, population growth in primary urban cores is negatively associated with unrest. The researchers found no evidence that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors such as nearby droughts; in fact, droughts hitting urban areas directly were found to be negatively associated with unrest.

• High urban population growth is associated with a higher likelihood of urban social unrest, with the probability of unrest being 64% greater in areas with 5% annual population growth compared to those with no growth.
• The positive relationship between population growth and social unrest is specific to peri-urban areas (the urban outskirts), where the probability of unrest is 58% greater in areas with 5% annual population growth compared to those with no growth.
• In primary urban centers, the relationship is reversed: the rate of grid population growth is negatively associated with social unrest.
• There is no evidence that droughts in nearby rural areas (within 200 km) drive the link between urban population growth and social unrest, rejecting the hypothesis that environmental push factors spur rural-to-urban migration that feeds unrest.
• Droughts that directly affect urban areas are negatively associated with social unrest, contradicting resource scarcity scenarios that assume competition for resources increases tension.
• Other factors significantly associated with increased urban unrest include higher overall population size, proximity to the national capital, and a higher density of infrastructure.
• Higher levels of economic development, measured by GDP per capita within the grid, are associated with lower levels of urban unrest.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (n.d.). Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/af66288f-2423-4eab-8298-1e8c830ef693/Conflict on the urban fringe Urbanization environmental stress and urban unrest in Africa.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa. n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/af66288f-2423-4eab-8298-1e8c830ef693/Conflict on the urban fringe Urbanization environmental stress and urban unrest in Africa.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/af66288f-2423-4eab-8298-1e8c830ef693/Conflict on the urban fringe Urbanization environmental stress and urban unrest in Africa.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslondconflict, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/af66288f-2423-4eab-8298-1e8c830ef693/Conflict on the urban fringe Urbanization environmental stress and urban unrest in Africa.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }