A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence

The study analyzes 285 conflict episodes to determine how natural resources affect the duration of postconflict peace. It identifies three primary mechanisms: distribution, financing, and aggravation. The findings indicate that while natural resource conflicts generally show shorter peace periods bivariately, only conflicts driven by disagreements over the distribution of resources and revenues significantly increase the risk of recurrence in a multivariate analysis. This suggests that resource-related grievances are a more persistent driver of conflict relapse than the mere opportunity to finance warfare.

• Bivariate analysis shows that peace periods following conflicts linked to any natural resource mechanism are 41.4% shorter than those following non-resource conflicts.
• In a multivariate survival model, only conflicts characterized by the distribution mechanism—disagreements over the ownership or revenue of natural resources—significantly shorten the duration of postconflict peace.
• The study refutes the hypothesis that conflicts financed by natural resources are significantly more likely to resume, challenging the theory that conflict recurrence is primarily driven by the feasibility of financing rebellion.
• The aggravation mechanism, where resources indirectly fuel conflict through factors like pipeline proximity or environmental degradation, was not found to have a significant impact on peace failure.
• The research identifies that natural resource conflicts are more likely to end without a clear resolution, as these mechanisms significantly reduce the probability of the conflict ending in a military victory.
• Regional analysis reveals that resource distribution claims are most prevalent in South Asia, while the use of resources for financing is most common in East Asia and the Pacific, largely driven by cases in Burma.
• The risk of peace failure is highest in the first 20 years following conflict termination, with the likelihood of peace continuing to hold increasing as the duration of the peace period grows.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (n.d.). A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/caece463-787d-4449-b8b3-26da280e511b/A Price Worth Fighting For Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence. n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/caece463-787d-4449-b8b3-26da280e511b/A Price Worth Fighting For Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/caece463-787d-4449-b8b3-26da280e511b/A Price Worth Fighting For Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslondprice, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{A price worth fighting for? Natural resources and conflict recurrence}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/caece463-787d-4449-b8b3-26da280e511b/A Price Worth Fighting For Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }